The Baltic states bordering Russia have repeatedly become targets of hybrid attacks by their eastern neighbour. A fire at a defence company in Tallinn that supplies equipment to Ukraine has once again highlighted the existing threat.
Russia’s most loyal ally, Belarus, is taking part in hybrid operations against the Baltic states, pushing migrants towards their borders, recruiting spies, and promoting propaganda narratives. Will Alexander Lukashenko be willing to drag his country in a Russian military operation in the region?
Russia could prepare an operation – hybrid, false flag, or even a limited attack – against a NATO country, to test the Alliance’s response. With major Western powers distracted (domestic political issues, the war in Iran, etc.) Moscow may feel that it has a window of oportunity, and the most likely targets are considered to be Poland and the Baltic states.
An add that suggested grilling “angry” Russians highlighted tensions regarding Estonia’s relations with its Russian minority. Many Estonians feel that the Russian community is loyal to and used by Moscow, while people within the community feel that their rights are being curtailed.
Russian has been, for several hundred years, a tool for promoting Moscow's policies. Tsarist Russia used it as a tool of imperial assimilation, the Soviet Union as a carrier of communist ideology, and Putin's Russia as a marker of its claimed sphere of influence.
Ukrainian combat drones have repeatedly entered the airspace of the Baltic states. The incidents have generated political tensions, but also suspicions that Russia is the one who jammed and diverted the drones, given that the region has seen numerous Russian provocations in recent years.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a national TV broadcast that Russia is preparing for a new mobilization that could be followed by an attack on the Baltic states. Contrary to the usual reaction, this statement triggered a strong negative response in Estonia.
In March, Estonia once again made the news: social media groups dedicated to the non-existent “Narva People’s Republic” appeared, and a drone that had crossed from the eastern border crashed into a power plant near Narva.
February 2022 dealt a crushing blow to the sense of security.
The U.S. president’s claims to Greenland have to be taken seriously, even if he confuses it with Iceland. In Estonia, the twists and turns of American politics are being watched with particular anxiety.
The decline in the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate — which is under Kremlin control — has provoked a furious reaction from Russian propaganda, including the press bureau of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).
A simmering conflict is unfolding in Estonia between politicians from the ruling coalition and the incumbent president, who has made a number of decisions unusual for Estonia’s foreign and domestic policy.
Russia’s closest ally, Belarus, has been increasing its hybrid operations against its EU neighbors, directing migrants towards their borders and closing its eyes to increasingly brazen smuggling. The goal is to cause instability.
An ethnic Russian influencer in Estonia was arrested after he spread Moscow’s narratives for years. Oleg Besedin had financial connection both with Russia and with Estonian political parties supported by the country’s Russian community.
The parties that make up Estonia’s ruling coalition were crushed in the local elections by the party supported by the country’s Russian-speaking population. This may spell trouble – and a change in policy – for the parliamentary elections due in two years.
Expert: “I slept through the news about Russian MiG-31s flying over Estonian territory. That says something. If you had other things to do, it means this incident wasn’t that important”
The war in Ukraine has shown that modern warfare is impossible without the involvement of drones.
The migrant crisis, part of the hybrid war waged raged by Belarus (and Russia) against the EU.
From the Caucasus to Central Asia and the Baltics, former allies are distancing themselves from Moscow’s orbit, forging new partnerships, and openly challenging the assumptions that once underpinned Russia’s dominance.
Given the vulnerability of the Baltic states to a Russian attack, there are growing calls that they should have a common defense, in order to more effectively supplement NATO’s assistance.
While Estonia leads in the press freedom ranking, Russian propagandists claim that Russian-language journalism is going through hard times in this Baltic country. However, the journalists themselves disagree with this assessment.
Politicians with pro-Russian – or at least ambiguous stands – and a strongman profile are frontrunners for the coming elections in Latvia’s three main cities. Will this trend go national?
While some argue that the Baltic States have been abandoned by a major strategic partner, others insist on the need for Europe to become more militarily independent.
On February 8, the Baltic states completely disconnected their power grids from Russia’s and switched to the European grid. Contrary to concerns, this transition did not cause any major complications.
The Trump administration's signals about a US policy toward Moscow, Ukraine, and the EU are causing concern in Russia's neighborhood, from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea.
Latvia must be prepared for everything in its defense: in the short term for versatile hybrid attacks, and in the long term even for a broader and more direct attack.
Baltic States have become colonies of the USA, acting only on Washington’s orders, according to Russian propaganda in Romania.
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New NATO members Finland and Sweden are increasingly involved in the security of the Baltic region, which has seen a number of aggressive Russian moves including sabotages of undersea infrastructure. However, the potential for cooperation with the Baltic countries has merely been tapped.
Donald Trump's return to the White House has generated fears about his approach to Russia and the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the economic relationship with the European Union. Veridica’s team of contributors has analyzed how Trump’s return to power is seen in Brussels and in Russia's neighboring countries - some of them ex-Soviet or ex-communist states, most of them members of the EU or NATO or with Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
As talks about peace in Ukraine along the current frontline intensify, some of Kyiv’s partners, including Latvia, feel this would be a dangerous outcome.
After two decades in the EU and NATO, the Baltic States din not yet fully connect their infrastructure with that of their partners. The railway infrastructure is particularly problematic.
A Latvian activist has been sentenced to prison for flying the Russian flag, according to a false narrative promoted by pro-Kremlin propaganda.
