As talks about peace in Ukraine along the current frontline intensify, some of Kyiv’s partners, including Latvia, feel this would be a dangerous outcome.
Everybody is talking about peace, but achieving it in the near future is complicated
In recent months, especially after the US presidential election, talk of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia has intensified. The front line is currently 1.100 kilometers long, with some sections seeing intense fighting and others being relatively calm. European and US officials discussed whether Western troops could be sent to Ukraine as peacekeepers. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said that his country must do everything to end the war diplomatically in 2025.
In addition, Russian strongman Vladimir Putin admits he is ready for a talks about ceasefire agreement with upcoming US leader Donald Trump. However, he insists that Ukraine gives up the territories that Russia has illegally annexed (including some that are under Ukrainian control), and that the country ends its ambitions to enter NATO.
Latvian observers of international events call the current situation unclear. On the one hand, public opinion is being prepared both in the world and in Latvia about potential peace talks, on the other hand, it is unclear what the principles of these talks might be. Mārcis Balodis, a researcher at the Centre for East European Policy Studies, thinks that currently all parties are checking each other – what the conditions and motivation for a potential peace could be. However, nothing will change quickly on the battlefield. “Even if peace talks are taking place, this does not mean a cessation of hostilities. These are two independent processes”, Balodis points out.
Toms Rostoks, of the National Defence Academy of Latvia, is saying that some moves are being quietly made behind the scenes, as Trump’s presidency is seen by many as an opportunity to end the war.
However, it’s too early to tell what will happen, as there are elements suggesting both that a quick peace is possible, and that the war will go on for a long time. On the one hand, the war has become existentially important both for Ukraine, and for Putin’s regime, motivating them to keep fighting. On the other hand, casualties are mounting, with losses (dead and wounded) in the hundreds of thousands for both countries, which might mean that sooner rather than later one of both would no longer be able to fight. On the one hand, Trump has promised to stop the war; on the other hand, if he does not achieve his goal, he may lose interest. Rostoks recalls that Putin has experienced several US presidents and they have always been more positive towards Putin at the beginning than they have been later on when they got to know him.
Latvia’s official position: Russia must be defeated
Latvia's position in this context has not changed. On 17 October, before Trump was re-elected in the White House, the Parliament adopted a resolution that peace in Ukraine and the region is possible only with the defeat of Russia. In addition, Latvia supports Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the European Union, calls for strengthening sanctions against Russia and Belarus, and supplying Ukraine with medium, and long-range weapons. Meanwhile, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs is calling on NATO countries to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP. Moreover, the Latvian president emphasized that Trump's victory means that Europe must think more about its security. In other words, Latvian politicians are commenting on potential talks between Ukraine and Russia with restraint, but Latvia’s firm support for Ukraine remains unchanged.
Theoretically, a weaker Russia could also be the result of a military clash with the West. “Is there an interest (in NATO countries to fight with Russia)? No. Moreover, if something happens, there are huge risks (for everyone)”, explains Rostoks. According to Latvia’s interests, Ukraine must defeat Russia, but seems it is not going to happen. “We cannot demand Ukraine to fight to the last man”, he emphasizes, indicating that the defense of the Baltics cannot be placed on Ukraine's shoulders. In other words, the Baltic States and Latvia must think about their security. He acknowledges that there will be no just peace because “it requires many things that would be very, very difficult to implement”. For example, the return of Russian-occupied territories to Ukraine.
According to Mārcis Balodis, Latvia is interested in preserving the international system, and that means that the aggressor is punished, and Ukraine returns to the 1991 borders. “It would be beneficial for small countries not to let Russia through, because otherwise a very dangerous precedent would be created, in which aggression is met with disproportionately weak punishment measures”, emphasizes Balodis. He adds that Latvia can also continue to help Ukraine rebuild its economy and remind the international community that the Ukrainian issue will stay important even if peace comes. Latvia must not allow the restoration of a “business as usual” attitude towards Russia, adds the expert.
Both experts remind that the potential negotiations will involve a large number of participants and interests: Ukraine, Russia, the USA, the EU, the Baltics, NATO, China, sanctions, deported Ukrainian children, etc. It means that not everything will happen as Latvia wants. Everybody should be willing to make some compromises.
Balodis points out that the Baltics and Poland are among Ukraine’s main supporters. Their role is to reduce the influence of countries that are indifferent to Ukraine. “Compromises are inevitable, but the Baltics can help weigh up what compromises are reasonable”, he said. Both experts emphasize Poland's importance as a regional leader with significant influence in Europe. Its influence is growing, especially in a situation where Germany and France lack stable governments.
Rostoks predicts that overall, the Baltics “will accept the things that Ukraine accepts itself”, but not all things will depend on Ukraine – for instance, Western sanctions against Russia. Balodis adds that even if a ceasefire is reached, the peace will be quite weak. Both experts agree that tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and Russia and Western countries will remain quite high.
