Donations
Veridica.md
The Baltic States are being targeted by Russian disinformation which is using both narratives launched before the war in Ukraine and newer ones. Veridica talked to Marcis Balodis, a researcher at the Centre for East European Policy Studies, about Russia’s disinformation campaign in the Baltics, why it is likely to continue and what could be done against it.
The consequences of the invasion in Ukraine – new disinformation narratives
VERIDICA: How important for Russian propaganda are Latvia and Baltic States, if Latvia and the Baltics can be separated at all?
MARCIS BALODIS: From the point of view of Russian disinformation, all the Baltic States can be seen as a whole. The population of the Baltic States is small enough to put them all together. Thus, apart from certain nuances arising from the local context, the messages are very similar, if not identical. For example, in the case of Latvia, it could be highlighted that the number of Russians and Russian-speaking inhabitants is the biggest in the Baltics.
In general, the Baltics a are a pretty meaningful part of Russia’s foreign policy. First, the Baltics are in the area that Russia considers, as the Kremlin says, its exclusive sphere of interest. Secondly, in all three Baltic countries, there are Russian-speaking parts of society that can be associated with the times of the USSR. Thirdly, Baltic states and Poland have very clearly expressed their attitude toward Russia’s expansionist foreign policy, as a result of which we became a target. Besides, all four countries have gained more international attention in the last year and a half. Before the 24th of February, 2022, these countries talked about, how the Kremlin looks at the world. We talked for years but others did not want to believe it.
Yes, we do not have such a power in international politics as Washington, Berlin, Paris, and London have but taking into account our regional, and geographical closeness to Russia, our ethnical composition of population, the Russian disinformation was, is, and will be here.
VERIDICA: Which narratives are the most popular in Russian disinformation?
MARCIS BALODIS: Russian disinformation is characterized by an opportunistic approach. It means one approach that is adapted to local circumstances. Of course, the current topics are about the war in Ukraine.
For instance, the Baltics have donated money and things to Ukraine and according to GDP in this sense, we are among the leaders. Disinformation demands that instead of giving the money to Ukraine, it should be dedicated to retired people and teachers. There are also classic messages: Russia is innocent, and the West or Ukraine or both are responsible for everything, and Russia just defends itself. Also, Russia is slandered. Thus, the Baltics must find a way to cooperate with Russia, so that everyone will get a benefit.
Thirdly, Latvia is a border country that nobody cares about. NATO is investing in the Baltics to increase our military capacity. In the case of a military conflict with Russia, the clashes will happen in the Baltics. We are going to be the biggest victims as we are just pawns in the much bigger geopolitical game.
Old narratives about the Baltics are still alive
VERIDICA: Is Russia spreading any more narratives?
MARCIS BALODIS: There are four big messages. The first one is the discrimination of Russian-speaking people. This [topic is being revived] in certain cases. For example, during the discussions on education in the Latvian language only or on taking down monuments [of the Soviet era]; according to the disinformation, this shows the discrimination not only of Russians but of all the Russian-speaking people. The second – all the Baltic countries are rewriting history. The Kremlin strongly politicizes history, especially if it relates to World War II. Every time some symbolic dates come, the argument that the winners are not supposed to be punished is brought to light. The Kremlin insists that [the Red Army was the main force behind] victory and without it, nothing would have happened. Thus, everything the Red Army has done is good and if someone says the opposite, he defames the memory of heroes.
Third, the Baltic States are not sovereign and are completely subordinated to Berlin, Paris, and Brussels. We are ready to sell our assets: the forests belong to the Swedes, the banks belong to the Swedes, there is no local production, everyone is leaving and the EU needs cheap labor only. It is often mentioned in the context that life in the Soviet Union was better because, for instance, education was free, so it was better to cooperate with Russia.
The last one – Russia is a besieged fortress. Everyone abuses it for no reason and [alleges without any base that it did] various crimes. Thus, Russia is a victim. Disinformation is aimed at finding the culprits: sometimes it is Brussels, but sometimes Baltic countries because they are Russophobes, Nazis, and fascists. In any case, the culprits are others but Russians and Russian-speakers are victims of Russophobic tendencies.
Russia is mainly spreading its disinformation in the Baltic states on social media
VERIDICA: Since 2014, Russian television channels and a number of Internet sites have been unavailable in Latvia. Thus, the question arises – how does Russian disinformation reach its audience in Latvia?
MARCIS BALODIS: Since the 24th of February, 2022, the biggest emphasis has been on using social networks, because Russian television and traditional media are strictly restricted in the Baltics. Here it is important to note that social networks are used basically by youth, thus the audience is changing. The main channels are „Telegram” and „Tiktok”. There is no research about the audience of social networks because the volume of data is enormous and also methodology is complicated. However, according to monitoring, the wave of disinformation continues. The content is similar to the one on different internet sites. However, the peculiarity is that anyone can make their own channel. Thus, there are many emotionally charged statements. When studying pro-Kremlin media content, you can see information designed according to some canons. It has some internal, yes, twisted, but still logic. On the contrary, „Telegram” is a flood of words, slogans, and insults, thus the information is vulgar, however, it still contains the same political attitudes and the motivation has not disappeared anywhere.
Fighting disinformation through strategic communication
VERIDICA: Are the Baltics successful in their fight against Russian disinformation?
MARCIS BALODIS: The key is to block websites and restrict any access to this type of content. But this is a half solution. Because – what’s next? In all three countries, especially in Latvia, there are people who have consumed this content for a long time and the question is what to do with these people. The main thing is to talk with them. If we do not do it, someone else will and then we no longer have control and influence.
The issue of strategic communication has increased in all Baltic States. In other words, the state should not only talk to its citizens but should do it in a planned and proactive manner. The greatest demand for information is during its vacuum when something is happening but nobody knows what. Everyone is looking for information, and disinformation can be produced quickly because it has no connection to reality. Thus, the government must have strategic communication to ensure that the population has some understanding of what is happening in moments of crisis and what can happen, thus getting ahead of disinformation. The best way to combat disinformation is to be faster than that. The most valuable thing is prevention.
VERIDICA: How and will Baltic countries limit Russian disinformation?
MARCIS BALODIS: In our region Russia has become toxic: something which should not be messed with because one does not know how it can end up. Disinformation will not go away. If I am not mistaken, at the beginning of 2020 Russia published a document in which it was mentioned that Russia needs to increase its information presence in the Baltic States, including through non-traditional information sources. Reading between the lines, these are bloggers, influencers, and other non-media types. Their advantage is the opportunity to insist that they are expressing their own opinion and the connection with Russia is even more difficult to prove.
We have to work on media politics, social integration, and cohesion of the society. People are getting accustomed to the war; thus they tend to lose focus on it. But, hopefully, the shock of the war is strong enough to remember these issues.
I am afraid to express any predictions because there are so many scenarios. While Russia is next to us and while we are living in their historical territories, disinformation will be here.
