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The fear of war with Russia is taking a psychological toll on Latvians. Authorities are trying to reassure them, pointing that Moscow lacks the capacity to wage war against NATO.
The endless talk about attacks on the Baltics
Talks about a potential Russian attack and threat to the Baltics have more or less been around since the collapse of the Soviet Union. They became more relevant, for example, when Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008 and during the annexation of Crimea in spring 2014. In the last couple of years, this topic has been present in the Latvian media almost every day.
Latvian or foreign experts, current and former politicians, and even celebrities share their opinions about what is going to happen in Latvia, the Baltics, and even the whole world in the near future. The media is regularly publishing analyzes about what Latvians should do if the invasion has started. There are also talks concerning the safety of Latvia's border with Russia and Belarus. For instance, the former Minister of Defense Einars Repše, who has been out of politics for several years, warned in late February that war may be inevitable for Latvia: “if there is no miracle and if Putin is not immediately defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine, it is clear that there will be war”. Repše added that German Nazi leader Adolph Hitler thought that he needs to conquer all the world, or at least Europe, and Russia’s Putin has the same mindset: “Russia is not enough for him, he needs to conquer Europe”.
Another example: former journalist and director of the National Theater Ojārs Rubenis admitted that “we live in a very terrible time […] I feel like we are in a situation just before the war and I can’t do anything for myself there. I remember all the stories in the 1950s that I had to listen to and all the problems that my parents and grandparents went through, and I see a lot of similarities”.
Sometimes the media goes into specific details, as if the war was inevitable. There are articles warning that basements of big apartment buildings are not suitable shelters during bombings, and people are advised to prepare the so-called 72-hour bag, containing essential goods needed to make it through the first three days of a potential war.
However, the word “Latvia” does not appear often in Russian President Vladimir Putin's vocabulary. He does mention it every now and then, like he did last January, when he criticized Riga for deporting Russian citizens.
As authorities are trying to reassure Latvians about their own safety, support for Ukraine remains high
In parallel with the discourse about the attack on the Baltics, there are also calls to calm down, not to exaggerate threats, as well as to be more critical of the Russian propaganda narrative about the weakness of Latvia and NATO.
The Latvian army issued a statement in which, consistently writing the word “Russia” with a lowercase letter, called for trust in the Latvian armed forces. “Referring to the recent tendentious speculations that have appeared in the information space from various sources about a possible increase in threats in Europe, including in Latvia, the National Armed Forces calls on the public to evaluate such messages critically, not to share them further, so as not to support the russian propaganda machine in its attempts to sow fear about a possible russian attack on Latvia or another NATO member state”. The army writes that Russia has lost large resources in Ukraine, so it does not have the strength for another invasion. In addition, Latvia has been a member of NATO for 20 years. “We are preparing for war every day so that it does not happen,” the statement said, adding that “Latvia's security situation is as stable and equivalent to the security situation in other NATO member states that do not have a border with russia, such as Spain, France or Italy”.
Also, Latvian president Edgars Rinkēvičs calls on Latvians to be responsible for their country without a sense of doom. According to him, it is necessary to continue helping Ukraine, do as much as possible ourselves to defend Latvia, and also not listen to those who say that the country has no chance to protect its independence.
At the same time, a third of Latvians interviewed for a survey have expressed a desire for Ukraine to sign a peace treaty with Russia, even if Ukraine has to give up the territories currently occupied by Russia. This opinion is prevalent within Latvia’s Russian speaking minority – where 60% plead for peace at any cost. Most Latvian speakers – 68% - advocated the liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine.
Finally, creative people have also joined the discussion. The well-known cartoonist in Latvia, Gatis Šlūka, laughed at those who claim that they are tired of the war, pointing out that while the Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches say that they must not give up, the Latvian or European sitting in a warm bed with a laptop claims that he is tired of the war.
Expert: There is no threat of a direct attack; the hybrid war is already underway
Are all the talks about threats to Latvia justified? Senior researcher of the Center for Security and Strategic Research in the National Defence Academy of Latvia, Ieva Bērziņa, told Veridica that the Latvian Army approach is reasonable: “The main idea is that Russia is currently busy, and resources are diverted to the war in Ukraine and they do not have other resources”.
However, the Russians are using some resources for a different type of operations against the Baltic country – a hybrid war that has been waged on for a long time. Its two manifestations are overflowing the information space with news favourable to Russia and sending migrants to the border with Latvia in Belarus and Russia.
Russian officials rarely mention Latvia; they haven’t done it before unleashing the invasion of Ukraine and that didn’t change since the war started.
Even if Latvia is not often named, the neo-imperial logic relates to this country as well. Russia, for example, tries to equate nationalism which serves as the basis for the existence of the nation-state with Nazism. Thus, any self-determination equals Nazism. However, the situation is opposite when it comes to Russian nationalism, according to Ieva Bērziņa: “in essence, Russia promotes aggressive nationalism, calling it patriotism. They use the word patriotism to replace aggressive, imperialist nationalism. This whole ideological construct is a threat to neighbouring countries”.
At the same time, Bērziņa cautions that the influence of Russian propaganda and narratives should not be over-stated. “The majority of [Latvian ethnics do not] agree with those narratives. Russia’s narratives play a bigger role in Russian-speaking audiences but again – not all Russian speakers find them credible. Young people understand and many tell me in the interviews, that they have one opinion, but family members – another one,” says Bērziņa.
The war in Ukraine, and Russian propaganda, are putting psychological pressure on Latvians. Psychologist: the number of cases of depression is increasing
Experts, politicians, and institutions are trying to reassure the public about the implausibility of a war coming in the near future by pointing out rational arguments and facts, but their arguments don’t always work.
“When the war just started, we talked about it in every conversation”, psychologist Dace Kačkāne told Veridica. People no longer talk that much about the war, but they never forgot about it, it’s always in the background. Plans for the future, like investing in long term projects or building a new house are questioned. Safety has become much more important and, as a consequence, some wonder whether they and their families should leave Latvia altogether.
“We have seen wars” Kačkāne points out. “What is happening now is a reminder of them. Fear is a projection of the past onto the future. If we did not have our experience, there would be no fear. If we were a nation with no experience of war, such reactions wouldn't be”.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Latvian society has been living in tension for the fifth year. In March 2020, serious measures against the spread of Covid-19 were introduced in Latvia. They were valid even on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine in full. In one day, the media discussion about covid-19 was completely replaced by the war in Ukraine. Society had no time to rest. Kačkāne admits that the number of depressions has increased. “There is a feeling of powerlessness because we cannot fight this [Covid-19 and war]” said the psychologist.
War has changed people. Some no longer watch media news to maintain psychological stability, others continue to donate monthly to Ukraine and its army, but do nothing actively, says Kačkāne. Society has become polarized, but at the same time, especially about Ukraine, empathy, support, and sympathy have grown.
What to do? Be aware of reality, answers psychologist. Is Latvia currently under attack? No. Are Russian troops massing at the border? No. Is it possible? Yes. Therefore, it is necessary to do things that are close and pleasant right now. For example, people must pay attention to their hobbies and friends: “We shouldn't relax, but we shouldn't always be afraid that someone will come to us either.”
Kačkāne does not attempt to predict how the socio-psychological situation in Latvia will develop. It depends on the geopolitical situation. “I don't think anyone can predict anything,” she concludes.
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