The changes in US policy on the security issues of Europe have caused a storm in Latvia. While some argue that the Baltic States have been abandoned by a major strategic partner, others insist on the need for Europe to become more militarily independent. However, one thing is common: the Baltics need to rely more on themselves.
Worries that, after more than two decades, the American security umbrella will be lost
Latvia has been a member of NATO for more than 20 years – since May 1, 2004. All this time, Latvian politicians have repeated like a mantra that the Baltic States are protected from a potential Russian attack by NATO’s Article 5. It means that if one NATO country is under attack, this is an attack on all the NATO countries. When, from time to time, US leaders confirmed this, it was a major media hit. Latvians were accustomed to and loved the idea that the US is a trustworthy partner.
Therefore, the US change in strategy, indicating that Europe must take more responsibility on defense, was received with displeasure. The US president, Donald Trump, claims for Ukraine and the failed meeting in the White House, where Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance clashed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, earned public disfavor against US leaders and even the US as a country. Trump’s response to a Polish journalist’s question about security guarantees for Poland and the Baltics also did not go unnoticed. While Trump confidently affirmed support for Poland, he was hesitant about the Baltics. Some said that it means that Trump doubts the Baltics; others thought that he just needed time to remember what the Baltic States are.
In this context, Latvian president Edgars Rinkēvičs noted that the US is and remains Latvia’s strategic partner. However, he points out that Trump insists that Europe must take responsibility for its own defense. “If Europe remains militarily weak as it is right now, we (Europe) will be in a very bad position,” Rinkēvičs added, acknowledging that he is concerned about Europe’s readiness to work on this issue. Europe is characterized by nice speeches, but “I want to see the results” Rinkēvičs says. He thinks that every European country must give 3.5% of its GDP to defense and he admits that Latvia as well has homework to do. The number of soldiers must be increased from the current 20,000 to 31,000 in the next few years, and then 38,000 further on.
Concerns in Latvia were also raised after the Baltic States were shunned at the March 2 London summit on European defense, which saw the participation of 20 countries from the continent. Media reports suggested that Baltic diplomats were dissatisfied, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was forced to apologize. There was also a confusing situation in Latvia, when media photos showed written remarks by the speaker of parliament Daiga Mieriņa, where after a meeting with the president she wrote that the US was an “unreliable partner”. Later, she explained that these were her “first emotions”.
However, the news that the US could support Eastern and Central European countries more has been perceived more optimistically. Although the article was about Hungary, it was recalled that there are only five NATO countries that will spend more than 3% of their GDP on defense in 2025. Poland, which already spends more than 4%, Estonia - 3.43%, the US - 3.38%, Latvia - 3.15%, and Greece - 3.08%.
Finally, on March 11, the US announced that it will continue to give financial support for increasing the defense capacity of the Baltic States.
Experts: for now, the Europeans can’t provide the same security guarantees as the US
There’s no consensus among the experts approached by “Veridica” regarding the latest delopments. While the president of the Baltic Security Foundation and former advisor to the Minister of Defense Olevs Nikers assesses the situation as “very bad”, the Secretary General at the Latvian Transatlantic Organisation Sigita Struberga stresses that this is an “opportunity for Europe”. However, both of them agree that the US remains the main strategical partner that could not be replaced, at least for now, by Europe.
“The context shows that the world has been changed and this is a last call for Latvia, the Baltic States, and Europe,” says Nikers, who is also a senior analyst at the Jamestown Foundation. “Shall we rely on the US? The short answer is no”, he tells Veridica, adding that “we all are used to live under the NATO Article 5”. He feels that people should accept that things have changed: “We are asleep. We do not believe what is going on, and we do not want to admit it. As a society, we have to understand that we are in trouble […] We have to say to the society that there are no illusions and we have to protect ourselves. We are tired [by the war] but everything is just starting”.
Sigita Struberga told Veridica that “the US is our strategical partner who has a different vision in certain details […] The hardest thing will be to find the approach to deal with the strategic partner. But who said that the partners must have identical interests and vision?” she asks rhetorically. Struberga points out that for more than a decade Europeans have been warned about US plans to pivot to the Far East. “We have to change. At first, Europe must ensure its security and then question the partner. For now, Europe is living on the partner’s account. We are not able to ensure our security. There is something wrong,” she claims, adding that this is an opportunity for Europe to become more militarily independent.
Olves Nikers thinks that “from that very moment, when Trump will succeed [to make peace in Ukraine] our countdown begins” and is warning that there could be two, three or five years until the potential Russian attack on the Baltic States. He urges to synchronize the three Baltic States’ defense and strong collaboration with the Northern countries and Poland. If possible, other European countries must be added to the joint coalition.
However, Nikers points out that there’s no cause for panic yet as “tomorrow morning, nothing is going to happen” and that, in fact, a Russian attack is not inevitable and could be deterred if the Allies show readiness. According to him, the coordinated regional defense is a key to the security. Since 2014, Canada has been a leading force in the NATO mission in Latvia. Nevertheless, because of the potential political changes in Ottawa and Canada’s inability to replace the US militarily, there are no chances for Latvia to hide behind Canada.
Also, Europe cannot be relied upon either. In early March, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his readiness to protect Europe with French nuclear weapons. However, such an option and Europe's readiness in general seem uncertain. “There are declarations but not strategic decisions. If there is nothing, we have to develop the regional cooperation”, repeats Nikers.
