Donald Trump's return to the White House has generated fears about his approach to Russia and the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the economic relationship with the European Union. Veridica’s team of contributors has analyzed how Trump’s return to power is seen in Brussels and in Russia's neighboring countries - some of them ex-Soviet or ex-communist states, most of them members of the EU or NATO or with Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Brussels: concerns regarding EU-US economic relations, the rise of the far right in Europe and NATO operability (Iulian Comănescu)
Donald Trump's second term at the White House has predictably kindled spirits in Brussels. From the de facto capital of the European Union, Trump’s return as head of the USA has two types of consequences. The first are economic and are linked to a trans-Atlantic opposition or rivalry, which will mainly take the form of the so-called “tariffs” (import taxes) that Trump tends to impose on competing economic blocs, with a view to bolstering American economy.
The second type of consequences concerns the overall political context. The European media has rightly noted that Trump's victory in America is also a victory in Europe for Eurosceptic or “Euro-exiting” parties. The kind of postmodern conservatism that is gradually taking theoretical shapes in the USA could turn into a global ideology, especially with the contribution of Viktor Orbán's FIDESZ, which can bring to the table a system that has already been fully tested in the 15 years of governance and relative “illiberal” political sophistication in Hungary.
Finally, since NATO is headquartered in Brussels, Trump's return to the White House will call into question the functioning and global presence of the North Atlantic Treaty alliance. The first topic of discussion is the defense spending contribution of European states. Since there are many signs they are willing to increase their GDP-to-defense contribution to the 2% reference threshold, it remains to be seen what other ideas or desires Trump will impose on the alliance and how NATO will redefine itself in response to them.
Europe: the era of prosperity under the protective wing of the American eagle is over (Cosmin Popa)
During the period preceding his inauguration, Trump’s administration put all the major challenges on the international agenda, without however coming up with a clear-cut plan of action for each specific case. What is clear, however, is that the burden of globalization seems to have exhausted America, seriously weighing down its universalist propensity. The victory achieved by the USA in the Cold War has been all but lost its shimmer, and Americans are now looking for a new political identity that will replenish their energies and, above all, give them hope for the future.
It remains to be seen the extent to which this “return to self” will trigger a change in geopolitical frameworks in Europe. The undeniable fact is that, unlike other periods of great change in contemporary history, despite the difficulties they face, European countries are stronger and much better prepared to face such challenges. What these countries lack for now, however, is the political audacity to operate the necessary changes. Whether they like it or not, the era of prosperity under the protective wing of the American eagle is over.
Despite the populist and sovereigntist surge in European countries, one of the most difficult periods for European nation-states is actually still ahead. Undermined by nationalist populists, criticized by the prelates of liberal orthodoxy, the United Europe project is in fact the only salvation for countries that otherwise lack both the tools and the capacity to stand alone in the face of the foreseeable onslaught of imperial powers. Europe must become a global power or prepare to be a colony.
Bulgaria: Trump’s victory gives a boost to Bulgaria’s conservative and pro-Russia voices (Svetoslav Todorov)
In Bulgaria, Trump’s victory came days after Bulgaria’s own general elections, the seventh in three years amid a prolonged election spiral. Trump’s comeback was congratulated by most Bulgarian party leaders and authority figures, with the tone rarely changing according to political affiliation – liberal and conservative voices accepted the victory as an almost natural event.
However, Bulgaria’s most popular pro-Russian far-right party, Revival, had a more pronounced enthusiasm, promoting the victory as the choice of the “normal people”. Most recently, Revival leader Kostadin Kostadinov – who led the party through relative obscurity to a sharp increase in public trust amid the vaccination debates in 2020-2021 and then further radicalized the faction after the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022 – made curious parallels between Donald Trump’s ambitions for a US expansion towards Canada, the Panama Canal and Greenland, and Bulgaria’s historical woes with losing particular territories over the centuries.
Kostadinov, prone to statements undermining Macedonian and Ukrainian identity, openly and provocatively demanded on January 9 Bulgaria to make steps towards annexation in Macedonia and Southern Bessarabia, meaning the historical territories in nowadays Romania, Moldova and Ukraine where there is a sizeable Bulgarian community. Revival is one of the few factions that make efforts to engage in their campaigns the minority there, which also goes through spreading pro-Kremlin claims among the people (mainly the Bulgarians in Moldova).
One might speculate that Trump’s victory may have also encouraged the mainstream GERB party, who claims it is pro-EU, to go into a coalition with more Euro-skeptic, even pro-Russian and anti-Western parties. On January 16, a new coalition between GERB, pro-Kremlin Bulgarian Socialist Party, nationalists There’s Such a People, and Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, a party led by controversial politician Ahmed Dogan (once in 2016, blacklisted by Turkey for being a Russian asset) was approved by the parliament.
Estonia: Trump’s promise to negotiate with Putin raises concerns (Olesja Lagashina)
The election of Donald Trump, on the one hand, caused enthusiasm among Estonian politicians, including those responsible for defense. It is assumed that, as a stronger politician at the helm of the USA, he will make world leaders take him seriously – and this is in any case better than if the weak Kamala Harris had won. On the other hand, Trump's promises to negotiate with Putin and end the war in Ukraine within a day raises concerns.
If the war does not end with a victory for Ukraine, it will mean an increase in the threat for Russia's neighbors, including Estonia: the freed-up military and economic potential of Russia could be used in other directions, including against the Baltic states. Trump's statements regarding Greenland make Estonian observers draw parallels with Crimea. Such disregard for international law and readiness to solve issues from a position of strength brings to mind the times of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
Latvia: ready to cooperate with Trump (Kaspars Germanis)
If eight years ago the Latvian political elite openly supported the then-Democrat party's candidate Hillary Clinton, then this time politicians were more reserved. In other words, Latvia was ready to cooperate with both candidates – Trump and Harris. Thus, when Trump was re-elected politicians from the leading coalition stressed that they are ready to cooperate with Trump. Moreover, the relationship between the two countries will remain as tight as it currently is. At the same time, the Latvian president Edgars Rinkēvičs admitted that Trump’s victory means greater European responsibility for the continent’s security.
Judging by the reaction on social media, society can be divided into three parts: those who are happy because conservatism has defeated excessive liberalism, those who are sad because they are not sure about Ukraine, and those who say that nothing is predictable.
The Republic of Moldova, forced to further develop its partnership with the USA and concerned with Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine (Mariana Vasilache)
Authorities in the Republic of Moldova want to strengthen bilateral cooperation with the USA, in the context of the installation of a new American administration. The United States of America are a reliable ally of the Republic of Moldova and a supporter of its European trajectory. Chișinău wants to elevate the level of bilateral relations with Washington, from Strategic Dialogue to Strategic Partnership. This was also emphasized during the recent visit to Chișinău paid by the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs in the US Department of State, James O’Brien. The American official, who traveled from Chișinău to Bucharest, told Romanian media that “he saw the people of the Republic of Moldova making a series of courageous choices for freedom and choosing a Western path, and this began to take root and develop during Trump’s first term in office. This gives us an indication of how the new Trump Administration will see the Republic of Moldova”.
The support provided by the United States of America is very important for the modernization of the economy, infrastructure, for reforms and the consolidation of democratic institutions, the modernization of the defense and security sector, for the energy security of the Republic of Moldova and the interconnection with the Europe’s energy grid. American assistance provided since February 2022 is nearing 1 billion USD, with funds targeting the economy, security, defense and humanitarian purposes. Total US contribution to the development of the Republic of Moldova exceeds 2.6 billion USD.
Chișinău’s greatest expectations from the new administration in Washington are most likely related to the way the new American president regards peace in Ukraine, in the context where Putin would like to share spheres of influence in the region with Trump. Chișinău’s role in the new regional security framework and the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict, a problem that the Republic of Moldova cannot solve without the help of its external partners, might depend on the new position of the American administration.
Poland: Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy looms large (Michal Kukawski)
Cries of “Donald Trump, Donald Trump” echoed through Poland’s parliament on Nov. 6, 2024 — and they came from the ranks of the far-right Law and Justice Party (PiS). Standing and applauding, PiS politicians celebrated as Free Republicans MP Jarosław Sachajko congratulated Trump from the parliamentary rostrum, reflecting the elation on Poland’s far-right.
Led by party chairman Jarosław Kaczyński, PiS leaders saw Trump’s victory as a favorable sign for the conservative agenda in Poland. But in the months since, their initial enthusiasm has dimmed. The PiS party feels disappointed that Donald Trump did not meet with President Andrzej Duda at his residence in Mar-a-Lago after winning the election, nor did he invite him to the inauguration of his presidency on January 20. This raised questions about Poland’s place in Trump’s foreign policy priorities.
The lack of engagement has sparked concerns over Poland’s role in Trump’s international agenda. While some observers joke that Greenland may envy Poland’s absence from Trump’s focus — given that U.S. attention often brings complications — others see potential opportunities.
At a Jan. 14 conference on transatlantic relations, former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Georgette Mosbacher highlighted Poland’s strategic importance. “Poland is the leader in transatlantic relations now,” Mosbacher said, pointing to its role on NATO’s eastern flank, support for Ukraine, and as a key transit hub for goods between China and Western Europe.
Mosbacher expressed confidence in continued collaboration under the Trump administration, citing comments from U.S. officials. Incoming Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has called Poland “an example for the entire NATO,” and to-be-appointed U.S. NATO representative Matthew Whitaker is reportedly planning his first foreign visit to Warsaw. Mosbacher also emphasized Poland’s growing potential in the arms industry, suggesting it could become a hub for NATO’s military equipment maintenance and servicing.
“Poland’s steadily developing economy is exactly where American investments should go,” she added.
Despite optimism from some quarters, Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy looms large. Key questions remain about his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, threats against Denmark, NATO’s collective security, and proposed tariffs on European imports.
Poland hopes to leverage Trump’s commitment to expanding U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. As Europe shifts away from Russian energy, Polish leaders see increased LNG imports as an opportunity to solidify ties with the U.S. Poland’s robust defense spending, exceeding NATO’s minimum requirements, could also bolster its position.
Analysts argue that Poland remains a rare success story of U.S. post-Cold War strategy, especially in its efforts to secure NATO’s eastern flank. “Poland is an element of American political success in Europe,” said Sławomir Dębski, former director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
Dębski suggested that Trump’s administration, while polarizing, presents opportunities for Poland. “Trump may not be fully embraced by Polish elites, but he has the support of the American majority,” he said. “We must adapt to this reality and focus on what we can influence rather than what we cannot”.
Romania had a good relationship with the first Trump administration, but now relations could be affected by Elon Musk's support for the far right (Ioana Dumitrescu)
In theory, Romania has no reason whatsoever to worry about the new Donald Trump era. After all, we are members of NATO, we have a strategic partnership with the United States that we now have the opportunity to develop.
The fact that during Donald Trump's first mandate, Romania was among the first NATO countries to immediately align with the White House leader's requirement to increase its defense spending to 2.5% of GDP and that, during all this time, our country's military purchases have been predominantly from the USA, can only be an asset in that regard.
Donald Trump's new era is said to be a transactional one. America cannot be great again without reliable partners. It is up to Bucharest authorities to know how to keep this partnership as beneficial as possible, to continue attracting Americans to the Danube-Carpathian space.
The fact that last fall Romania signed a loan agreement of 920 million USD to modernize its military capabilities and that part of this money will go to 3 Romarm factories, and that Romania will become Europe’s sole manufacturer of ammunition for Abrams tanks, is no small thing for the relationship that will follow.
There is one further advantage Romania should capitalize on. The fact that, unlike other countries in the region, starting with Hungary and ending with the former Yugoslav states, Chinese investments are not at a relatively high level. However, during the election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on all goods coming from China and threatened that, if Beijing does not stop drug trafficking to the USA, he would increase their level by another 10%. Even though Donald Trump spoke with Xi Jinping on the phone before his inauguration, and as he himself wrote on his network, “it was a good conversation in which we talked about TikTok, Fentanyl and trade”, it is still unclear what the future president’s position will be towards Beijing.
The presidential election in Romania could become a problem for Bucharest’s relationship with Washington in the context where Elon Musk, a close associate of Trump, has already stirred up Europe by directly supporting the far right in Germany and the UK. Messages from supporters of the pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu have already been posted on his X platform.
From the inside, however, our innovative sovereigntists seem to be somehow expecting an endorsement from Washington. Before that happens, they are doing everything in their power to at least get Donald Trump’s attention.
Turkey: Erdoğan claims to be excited by Trump’s victory, but he has little reason for optimism (Dragoș Mateescu)
After Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections, public declarations by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and various members of his government described this development as auspicious for Turkey. Erdoğan himself hurried to congratulate the winner, even addressing him as "my friend" and recalling some of the positive evolutions for bilateral relations during his first term at the White House. Pundits are more reserved, however. During Trump’s first term, in August 2018, Erdoğan eventually bowed to him and released US pastor Andrew Brunson, but only after the American President threatened via Twitter to “destroy the Turkish economy”. The Turkish lira fell immediately and continues to do so ever since. One year later, in November 2019, Erdoğan visited the White House for the last time. The event was nevertheless marked by the terrible acts of violence by his bodyguards against protestors right in front of the presidential residence. Add a famous letter Trump had sent to his Turkish counterpart in October 2019, demanding with insulting tone that he enters dialogue with the military commander of the Syrian Kurds, Mazlum Kobane. Now, after the fall of the Assad regime, the Turkish leader continues to threaten Syrian Kurds and will have to face Trump again.
Additionally, the people that new US President has appointed in his second administration as Secretary of State (Marc Rubio) and national security counselor (Michael Waltz) are notorious for their critical and firm positions against Erdoğan regime’s authoritarian turn inside and ambitions outside the country. Trump has also hurried to nominate a new ambassador to Ankara in December last year, although the current one has not finished his term. And the nomination is 77-year-old billionaire Tom Barrack, old friend and collaborator of Trump, a man of Lebanese Christian descent with good knowledge of the Middle East and of Arab interests in the region. All these nominations come in a context that is rather problematic for Ankara. Erdoğan has personal ambitions that many Turks still share, but Trump’s are always bigger. The US President initiated the Abraham Accords, and they are about peace in a Middle East region where Israel is fully integrated. Joe Biden could not finalize the tripartite accord that would crown the entire process, between Israel, Saudia Arabia, and the US. Trump will most probably want to finish with such a success a process that he started himself, back in 2020. I do not think anybody and anything can stay in front of the new American president when he really wants something as big as this.
Ukraine – hopes for peace, concerns that it could favor Russia (Marin Gherman)
The arrival of Donald Trump at the White House has prompted conflicting reactions in Ukraine. Many admit that Trump can become a catalyst for decisive international talks on Ukraine, giving a significant, albeit currently contradictory, impetus to the peace process. It could be a chance to put an end, one way or the other, to the deadlock of the war of attrition in an extremely complicated period for Ukraine. However, things are bound to get even more complicated.
On the one hand, there are fears that Trump could concede Ukraine or part of it to Putin by forcing an unfair and hasty peace agreement, without taking into account the opinion of Kyiv. On the other hand, the fatigue of three years of war speaks for itself, and there are many Ukrainians for whom Trump is the magical solution, bringing peace and tranquility.
Kyiv is also considering the possibility that Trump's attempt to restore peace will fail, and in such a scenario there is a fear that Ukraine will be left alone in the face of Putin's armies.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already tried to court Trump: he has given interviews to a pro-Trump American podcaster and has voiced praising messages for the new American president.
