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Finland closed its land border with Russia due to a hybrid threat, and Estonia may follow suit, although it has not done so yet.
A familiar handwriting
The readiness of Estonian authorities to join the actions of their Finnish colleagues seemed excessive to many local residents, given that there was no apparent reason. Finland closed its border in late November because migrants, arriving in large numbers from the Russian Federation, were putting pressure on it. Russian border guards were allowing them to cross the border without the necessary documents.
However, there was no such pressure noted on the border in Narva or at the southeastern border crossing in Estonia. Nevertheless, considering that the Baltic countries had previously experienced migrant influxes inspired by unfriendly neighboring states, using them as a tool to destabilize the border would not be something new or surprising.
Two years ago, when thousands of migrants from the Middle East appeared on the borders of Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland, the authorities of the Baltic countries declared it a hybrid attack by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Lithuanian authorities even announced their intention to file a lawsuit against Belarus in the United Nations International Court over the organization of the illegal migration.
Since then, the flow of Middle Eastern migrants has significantly decreased, although the issue has remained relevant in the local media. Estonia, on the other hand, did not encounter a similar influx but experienced a peak in border pressure during the early months of the Ukraine war when Ukrainian refugees flooded into the country. The news that the flow of illegal migrants is now being redirected northward has put both Estonian authorities and ordinary citizens on alert.
"We recommend avoiding travel to Russia. Estonian citizens temporarily in Russia are urged to assess the necessity of staying in Russia and, if possible, return to Estonia. Due to migration pressure, Estonia may temporarily close its border checkpoints with short notice, making return to Estonia through these checkpoints impossible," warned the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the end of November.
Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna discussed in Brussels with foreign ministers of other countries bordering Russia the readiness to close borders if necessary. "The logic is that if Finland closes its border, Estonia will also have to do so, and then all these people will move toward the borders of Latvia and Lithuania. The domino effect will occur, and the entire eastern border of Europe could be completely closed at once," said Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets on Äripäev radio. However, this has not happened so far.
But the flow of transit passengers from Finland has increased as they have lost the ability to travel to Russia directly. As soon as the movement through the Finnish border checkpoints was closed, the number of individuals crossing the Estonian-Russian border increased by a quarter. The bus company Lux Express, which used to serve the Helsinki-St. Petersburg route, reported that the number of passengers on the Tallinn-St. Petersburg route increased by 48%. However, these figures themselves are not large: currently, only a few thousand people cross the Estonian-Russian border each day; before the COVID-19 crisis and the war, this number was twice as high.
Dachas and relatives
Most of the people crossing the border in Narva are local residents who have relatives, work, or property in Russia. Residents who hold Russian passports often go to the neighboring Ivangorod for affordable groceries. In the opposite direction, Russian citizens with close relatives in the European Union still have the right to cross the border.
Nikolai, a resident of Narva, also holds Russian citizenship. He has a dacha (summer house) in the Leningrad region, for which he acquired another plot of land a few years ago. He regularly visits Russia and says that the prospect of border closure has concerned many residents of Narva.
"The news worried us, and everyone was discussing it. Three people messaged me right away, asking what would happen now. It's genuinely important. Although there are some people in Narva for whom this doesn't affect them at all, they don't go there. But there's another group closely connected to something in Russia. Everyone has relatives in Russia, and often they live very close to Narva," says Nikolai.
He hopes that the troubles won't last long, and if the border is closed, it will reopen soon. "I gave the keys to my dacha to a neighbor. I prepared everything for the winter just in case when this danger emerged. I'm waiting to see what happens, and in any case, I hope it won't be for long because if it continues and affects spring and summer, then honestly, I don't even know what to do," he confesses.
He also mentioned that a similar situation occurred during the pandemic. "Back then, it was perceived differently, like a real tragedy. I honestly left my house with tears in my eyes. When I read that Estonia was closing the border due to quarantine, I closed everything and went to Narva. But then it was a dangerous virus that everyone was afraid of, and now it's perceived as something man-made, some political nonsense that interferes with our normal lives," says Nikolai.
He has no plans to sell his overseas property, even though it's evident that relations with Russia are unlikely to improve in the coming years. "It's a family nest, so to speak. It's not just real estate; it's connections, childhood friends, and relatives. Why should I cut out a big part of my life because politicians at some high level quarreled with each other?" he explains.
In the Russian village where his dacha is located, there are only five local families. The rest of the population comes from St. Petersburg or from Estonia, mostly from Narva, but there are also Tallinn residents who come there for the summer. According to Nikolai, none of his neighbors are in a hurry to part with their Russian real estate, including those with Estonian passports. Obtaining a Russian visa is still relatively easy for them.
In Nikolai's opinion, Estonia will likely, sooner or later, follow Finland's example and close the border, even though there are no specific reasons for it. "We had 4,000 people crossing the border here daily; it became 5,000, and the border guards coped with it. And all this panic started because... how many illegal migrants are there—maybe about forty? So, the problem, actually, is very small but blown out of proportion," he believes.
A threat to national security
Finnish authorities, however, do not consider the situation to be inflated and regard it as a threat to national security. According to one version, the unhindered passage of migrants at the Finnish border was a kind of retaliation by Moscow for Finland's NATO membership. This version seems quite plausible, especially considering that on December 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly stated in an interview with a Russian state television channel that, whileFinland had no problems with Russia before joining NATO, it will have them now. Additionally, he promised that Russia would establish a Leningrad Military District and concentrate military units near the European border.
In mid-December, Finnish authorities attempted to reopen the border but were immediately forced to close it again for a month because approximately four hundred illegal migrants appeared at the Vaalimaa and Niirala border checkpoints. There are no guarantees that, after the next reopening in mid-January, the border will not be closed again. According to Finnish laws, the border can be kept closed for no more than a month, but there is nothing preventing it from being partially reopened for a short period and then closed again.
Estonia also takes the situation seriously, and its authorities have stated their readiness to promptly close the border with Russia if the government makes such a decision.
"It is impossible to predict whether the whole border will be closed in the event of a migration attack or whether this decision will affect only the Narva border crossing or all three. This decision can be made in a matter of hours. Then it may become difficult for people to return home to Estonia. That is why we continue to advise against traveling to Russia," commented for Veridica Veiko Kommusaar, the head of Estonia's border service.
In his words, even though the situation may appear stable at the moment, it doesn't mean that the risk of migratory pressure is no longer relevant. "The Police and Border Guard Board continues to closely monitor the situation at the border. We fully understand the difference between genuine asylum seekers and those individuals who are involved in what is known as migratory pressure. We block the latter group, and Russia allows them back," says Kommusaar.
"If at some point Russia does not allow them back, we will find ourselves in a situation where there will be a group of people on the bridge between the two countries, which means we will have to deal with them. In this case, the border checkpoint in Narva will be immediately closed to prevent further waves of migrants. In the event of escalation, we will also have to consider the possibility of closing the other border checkpoints with Russia," explained the head of Estonian border guards.
He mentioned that even a few citizens of third countries found on the Estonian border could provoke its closure if it qualifies as a migration attack. For many residents of Estonia and their relatives in Russia, this would mean the inability to reunite with their loved ones for Christmas, and for others, it would mean the need to plan long detours. However, considering the recent developments in relations between European countries and Russia, there are not many options left.
