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Russia is upping the stakes in its long game against NATO, as it put Estonia’s prime minister on a wanted list and unveiled plans to increase the number of troops deployed at the border. Experts think that, within 3 to 10 years after the end of the war in Ukraine, Moscow would be able to attack a NATO country.
Russia’s threat to the prime minister of an independent country
In mid-February, shortly before the second anniversary of the attack on Ukraine, Russia issued a search warrant under the Criminal Code for Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Secretary of State Taimar Peterkop, as well as a number of foreign public figures. Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of Russia, commented that it is these individuals whom the Russian authorities hold responsible for desecrating historical memory.
Estonian officials made it onto this list after a campaign by the authorities to remove all Soviet monuments from public spaces resulted in the dismantling of a Soviet tank in Narva in August 2022. In Estonia, the news about the Prime minister did not cause much stir, although it was taken very seriously. "Russia thinks that a fictitious arrest warrant will help silence Estonia - I will not be silent, I will continue to resolutely support Ukraine and advocate for strengthening European defense," Kaja Kallas commented on the news, noting that the KGB had already once issued an arrest warrant for members of her family.
The Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Russia's charge d'affaires, Lenar Salimullin, expressing outrage at the incident and demanding explanations. The Prosecutor General, Andres Parmas, suggested that Kaja Kallas's foreign trips might become riskier, especially once she leaves office and travels as a private person. "If some country decides to ignore its obligations and refer, for example, to an extradition treaty concluded with Russia, then we can only throw up our hands and appeal to the law, but what's the point?" said Parmas.
According to Igor Gretsky, a researcher at the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, this is about a political message aimed primarily at Eastern European countries, suggesting that Russia claims a sphere of so-called special interests, including Estonia. "The second part of this message is that Russia essentially does not consider the Baltic states fully sovereign countries, and this is confirmed by the fact that their leadership is being searched by the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs," commented Igor Gretsky for Veridica.
The expert believes that this political signal is more intended for an external, rather than the internal Russian audience, and should be taken as a direct threat. "Such messages should be taken seriously, as whenever the Russian leadership senses weakness in the opponent, it immediately accompanies these political messages with actions. We've seen this in the case of Georgia, in the case of Ukraine, so I would take these messages seriously," he noted.
At the same time, he does not consider the risk of the Estonian Prime Minister being arrested abroad and extradited to Russia to be high. Firstly, for this to happen, the country making such a decision would need to have an extradition treaty with Russia. Secondly, such actions would constitute a gross violation of international law, as heads of state enjoy immunity. Consequently, for the extraditing country, this would entail serious consequences.
Russia’s threats are backed by military build-up at NATO’s borders
Nevertheless, these purely symbolic threats towards Estonia are backed by very real actions by the Russian leadership, which has begun to increase its military power on its western border. In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to restore the previously abolished Leningrad Military District in response to Finland's entry into NATO.
"They brought Finland into NATO. Did we have any disputes with Finland? All disputes, including those of territorial nature, were resolved back in the middle of the 20th century. There were no problems, but now there will be. Because we will be creating the Leningrad Military District and concentrating certain military units there," he stated on the TV program "Moscow. Kremlin. Putin." The re-establishment is planned to be completed in March 2024.
The reduction of armed forces in northwest Russia began in 1990, after the USSR signed the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, agreeing to limitations. In the early 2000s, the Leningrad Military District was the least populous in Russia and was later disbanded. The current decision indicates that Russia plans to increase military power close to NATO's borders - the distance from the center of the Leningrad Military District to the Estonian capital is just over 300 km, and to the border town of Narva, 135 km.
"For Estonia, the implementation of the reform means a significant increase in Russian troops on Estonian borders in the coming years," – stated the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service in its annual report, released in mid-February. Returning to the concept of a mass army of the Soviet model indicates, according to the department, that the Russian leadership is preparing for a possible conflict with NATO that may occur within the next ten years.
While Russia plans to strengthen all strategic directions, its priority remains the Western strategic direction and Ukraine. According to estimates by Estonian foreign intelligence, the reform could double the personnel of Russian ground and airborne forces near Estonia in the coming years. However, this will depend on the ability to recruit, train, and rearm new contractors, which in turn largely depends on the further course of the war in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the Foreign Intelligence Service warns that "repelling a possible conventional attack by such an army will require the Defense Forces and the defense industry of allies to be many times more prepared, powerful, and stocked with ammunition than they currently are."
Russia aggressie stance, fueled by Moscow’s long-held beliefs that it has the right to an empire and that the Europeans are too weak to withstand pressure
While in Russia the strengthening of military power on the western border was motivated by the expansion of NATO, Estonian analysts name a deeper reason. "I do not think that the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO played a role here. Here, rather, the worldview of the Russian elite in power plays a primary role. This is the perception of Russia or the Soviet Union as a decision-making center, as one of the few countries in the world that has 100% sovereignty and has the a priori right to project this sovereignty beyond its borders, thus forming claims to spheres of special interests", says Igor Gretsky.
He notes that since the 1990s, this worldview has been expressed in territorial claims by post-Soviet Russia towards Ukraine. "We have also heard from Russian officials, representing the Russian government, claims and threats against the Baltic states, against Poland. This has all happened before, the same was said about Georgia. Therefore, I do not think that the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO played a key role here" believes the expert of the Foreign Policy Institute.
Igor Gretsky reminds that for the Soviet and post-Soviet political elite, European governments are perceived as weak and susceptible to pressure, and therefore, making decisions under such pressure. According to this logic, the more pressure is applied to European governments, the more concessions can be extracted. This is exactly what is happening now.
On the other hand, concentrating a mass army near the NATO border, according to Estonian experts, may mean that Russia is preparing for a real offensive operation. Otherwise, it would be enough to deploy missiles that would keep the border NATO countries at gunpoint.
"Tanks and armored vehicles, in general, are rather an instrument of offensive operations. This is such a signal, if armored mobile equipment is placed at the border, it is usually perceived by the military as forming a striking fist for breaking through the border. Missiles are not suitable for this purpose," explains Gretsky.
Russia would be able to attack a NATO country 3 to 10 years after the war in Ukraine ends
Regarding the timing of a possible attack, different estimates have been voiced. Thus, the German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned in mid-January that, according to German experts, it is possible within 5-8 years. In Estonia, even shorter terms are named. Based on the fact that Russia is involved in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, forecasts are based on calculations of how quickly the Russian army will be able to restore its stocks of artillery ammunition. "If we are talking about artillery ammunition, then it could be 3, 4, 5 years. As for heavy equipment, it's about 5-8 years. For aviation, I think it's around 8-10 years," Gretsky names possible terms.
In any case, experts agree that Russia will be able to attack when it is convinced that the opponent is weak enough and disorganized, therefore unable to respond to a blitzkrieg. In this regard, Estonian politicians keep reminding that the prospects of a Russian invasion directly depend on the will of Western allies and Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
"The resistance of Ukraine keeps the Russian army away from the borders of the European Union and NATO, but sooner or later Russia will want to restore, and possibly strengthen, the positions of its army. The Kremlin still thinks in terms of buffer zones and spheres of influence, which was confirmed by the attack on Ukraine. So, in the near future, Russia will pose an even more serious threat to democratic Europe than before 2022," declared Estonian President Alar Karis in his speech on the occasion of Estonia's Independence Day, coinciding with the second anniversary of the Russian invasion.
The President called on NATO allies to spend, like Estonia, 0.25 percent of GDP annually on Ukraine's defense. "This would give the Ukrainians a total of another 120 billion euros a year. To withstand the aggressor, they need this money, as well as ammunition and weapons," said Alar Karis. And in this case, his words that "if Ukraine wins with our help, it will also be our victory" should be taken literally: the more losses Russia suffers on the Ukrainian front, the more time Estonia and other NATO countries will have to prepare.
