Analysts think that if Donald Trump is elected again, US policies may become more chaotic and worrying for the Baltics. On the contrary, if the current President Joe Biden continues to lead the country, then the Baltic states and Ukraine can be calmer, and “business as usual” will continue.
There still a year until the US presidential elections, but experts, journalists, and politicians in the Baltics and war-torn Ukraine are already discussing how US foreign policy could change. Most of the experts assume that the candidates will be Biden and Trump, even if, so far, none of them has been officially nominated. While Biden's policy and rhetoric are predictable, Trump's aren’t and is a cause of concern.
The US has been supporting the Baltic States for more than a century
The US relationship with the question of the independence of the Baltic States began long before joining NATO. The US recognized Latvia’s independence in 1922, and it never recognized officially the Soviet annexation of the Baltic States. The embassies of the Baltic States were not closed in the US and they worked there until 1991, when the three countries regained their independence. The embassies also continue to control the financial assets of their countries. Those Latvian legionnaires who surrendered to the West as German soldiers were not deemed German citizens, so they were never extradited to the Soviet Union.
On the other hand, at the Tehran and Yalta Conferences, in 1943 and 1945, the Americans and the British agreed that he Baltic States would “de facto” be part of the USSR following the war. Later American leaders condemned this decision. For instance, former president Georg Bush said, during a 2005 visit to Latvia, that “this agreement at Yalta followed in the unjust tradition of Munich and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Once again, when powerful governments negotiated, the freedom of small nations was somehow expendable”. Bush also pointed out why the US are interested in free Baltic countries: “The end of World War II raised unavoidable questions for my country: Had we fought and sacrificed only to achieve the permanent division of Europe into armed camps? Or did the cause of freedom and the rights of nations require more of us? Eventually, America and our strong allies made a decision: We would not be content with the liberation of half of Europe -- and we would not forget our friends behind an Iron Curtain”.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US recognized the Baltic States’ independence and since 1994 Latvia has been fully involved in the NATO program „Partnership for Peace”. Since 29th March 2014 Latvia has been a full member of NATO.
Latvian politicians and experts noted many times that the US is the backbone of the security of the Baltic States, especially in the context of the increased Russian aggressiveness in the region starting with the 2014 attack against Ukraine.
The Baltic security and the US presidential elections. The problem with a Trump White House
The director of Baltic Security Foundation Otto Tabuns told “Veridica” that the question of Baltic’s security and the Russian-started war in Ukraine is important in US elections. There are still pretty much meaningful players for whom this question is important,” he says. He agrees that despite the fact that there are powerful candidates on both sides – democrats and republicans – in the end, Americans will have to choose between Biden and Trump.
Tabuns explains that for both of them – Biden and Trump – the Baltic countries and Europe, in general, are important because this is about shared democratic values, transatlantic cooperation, and justice. In addition, US cooperation with Europe is important as the two are tied by strong financial and political bonds.
The lecturer at Riga Law School and researcher of US foreign policy Martins Hirss agrees with Tabuns that if something unexpected is not going to happen, we will see again a duel between Biden and Trump. However, he is skeptical about the specific interests of American politicians and voters in the Baltic States. Another thing is Ukraine which in international politics is more meaningful than the Baltics. However, that does not mean that Americans are willing to continue to support Ukraine. We see that among republicans are politicians who are asking to reduce or even stop the support for Ukraine.
Current US president Joe Biden expressed his support for the Baltics and its security several times, including during his White House run, when his campaign published a document that read “as President, Joe Biden will send a strong message to Russia: don’t bully a NATO member. Joe Biden’s long-standing support for the Baltic States and belief in America’s commitment to our allies contrast sharply with Donald Trump, who has questioned the value of the NATO alliance […] In May 2003, Biden enthusiastically voted for Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian NATO accession. Since then, Biden’s commitment to Baltic security has only increased,” was written in documents about Biden’s policies.
Hirss recalls that Biden as a vice president of US during the Obama’s presidency was responsible for reset of the relationships with Russia. Biden has visited Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine, so he knows very well this region, explains Hirss. „He should not have any illusions about Russia after the failure of this restart,” he emphasizes.
While Biden is more predictable, his most likely rival Trump has repeatedly questioned the effectiveness of NATO and has been a vocal critic of some of the US’ European allies. Nonetheless, Otto Tabuns thinks that Europe is and will be important to Trump as well, and this is precisely the reason why the former president is critical. Moreover, Trumps rhetoric does not always match his words. The director of the Baltic Security Foundation says that Trump’s threats to withdraw US troops from Europe are meant to exert pressure on European allies, in particular Germany to increase defense spending. “It was convenient for Trump to show that he is equally strict to all the partners and the interests of America are the most important both in the US and in international affairs,” Tabuns says.
Both experts agree that the political system and environment won’t allow a US president to be the sole decision maker and exert discretionary powers. For making some bigger changes that would be acceptable to Trump, more time and legal authority are needed. However, now, explains Tabuns, there is an anxiety that if Trump is re-elected he could be surrounded by advisors who would pursue policies more in line with Trump’s impulses. In this case, more surprises can be expected. Hirss adds that the risk is the fact that Trump now knows how to manage the country. Thus, the American political establishment will probably not be as effective in resisting the impulses of a Trump administration. If Donald Trump gets re-elected, the US will lose its focus on Russia and the whole domestic and foreign politics could become again chaotic and controversial. It means, the contradictions not only in what Trump himself says, where he tends to say mutually exclusive things, but also contradictions between Trump and US diplomacy. Thus, US society is divided, and foreign policy is weaker.
In addition, Hirss recalls that at the beginning of Trump’s presidency, his former national security advisor Michael Flynn lost his post because he secretly met the Russian ambassador US Sergey Kislyak. Probably, one of the topics discussed was to reduce the NATO role in the Baltics.
And, last but not least, it is worth noting that, at one time, Trump confused the Baltics with the Balkans.
A change in Washington’s policy would be less painful for the Baltic states than for Ukraine
Currently, the security of the Baltics is often associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its outcome. Otto Tabuns is skeptical that the US presidential election will have a very significant impact on the war in Ukraine, as it is influenced by many factors. But since the USA provides the most important military, financial, and intelligence support of Ukraine, a dwindling of that support could further extend that conflict.
US presidential elections are important for the Baltics and Ukraine since the US is their main strategic and military partner. The security of the Baltics and Ukraine is an important element for Europe’s collective security.
However, according to Tabuns, Latvia is in a more secure position. Unlike Ukraine, the Baltic States have more formal relationships with the US, and in the case of failure or other problems, the US will lose more. The analyst is confident that regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, the Baltic states will be safe.
Hirss is more cautious because the attitude towards NATO is not clear if Trump is elected. If the Republicans still gain a majority in Congress, less support for NATO is not excluded, which would be bad news for the Baltic States.
