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Latvia’s unfinished border fence came into focus following Wagner’s rebellion in Russia and its alleged move to Belarus. Experts warn that security requires more than a fence.
The fence separating the Western world from Russia
Countries like Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland – and others in the former communist Europe and USSR – were always a bit uneasy about Russia, considering their historical experience with the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. That uneasiness turned to concerns in 2014, when Ukraine was first attacked and Crimea was annexed. And then, in the summer of 2021, large numbers of Middle Eastern migrants tried to enter the EU by crossing the Polish, Lithuanian, and Latvian borders. The officials of all three countries, including Latvia, emphasized that the stream of migrants was organized and encouraged by the regime of Alexander Lukashenko, who took revenge on these countries for their support for the opposition during the Belarusian presidential elections in August 2020 and the protests that followed them. Both Latvian and European Union officials called this action a hybrid war.
Concerns regarding security increased further after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022, and once more following Progozhin’s so called March of Justice with his Wagner fighters on 24th June 2023. Moreover, it is now assumed that at least part of the Wagner militants will be relocated to Belarus just next door to Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania.
By the time Prigozhin made his move, the construction of fences along the Russian (and Belarusian) borders was underway in several European countries, having started, in some of them, years before. Lithuania and Poland are among the countries that completed their border fences.
Latvia had started to build a fence on part of its border with Russia in 2019, and plans to extend it to the whole Latvia-Russia and Latvia-Belarus borders were elaborated in 2021. The plan was to have a 173 km long fence on the border with Belarus by mid-2024. The schedule of the construction of the 283.6 km long border with Russia is not clear. At this very moment, 75% of the fence on the border with Belarus has been completed, but only 90 kilometers – so a bit more than a third – on the border with Russia. On the 1st of July, Latvian Interior minister Maris Kucinskis visited the Latvian–Russian border and acknowledged that 193.6 km of the border is without any barriers. The main problem is the conflict between the state and the company building the fence. Both sides are accusing the other of alleged violations of the law. Besides, the border is not everywhere covered by the video surveillance and road infrastructure that could help border guards to get faster to the locations of potential trespassers.
Meanwhile, the situation on the border is still tense. Some 4000 people tried to cross illegally the Latvian and Belarusian border, and officials warn that, by the end of the year, that number could double. Kucinskis admitted that the government „must find” ways to accelerate the construction of the border fence and infrastructure around it and to elaborate a strict schedule by stressing when the border must be finished.
At the same time, Kucinskis and the Latvian prime minister Krisjanis Karins are saying that the lack of a fence does not decrease Latvia’s capabilities to overlook and protect the Latvian borders. According to Karins, there are technological solutions that help border guards to do their job.
Experts: The Wagner group could be used to direct refugees towards Latvia’s borders
Latvian political scientist and professor of Latvian University Ojars Skudra told Veridica that the Wagner group likely played a serious role in transporting the immigrants from African countries to Libya from where they tried to cross the Mediterranean Sea and reach Italy. Thus Wagner has experience in organizing the migrant flows to other countries. „Wagner could have the same business aims in Baltics as they had in Italy,” indicates Skudra.
In this sense, he acknowledges that the Latvian border is really weak and, so far, there are only hopes that Wagner and Belarus have other objectives. He rejects the idea that Wagner militants as private persons could go to Baltics or Western countries by crossing the Baltic countries because they will not have relevant and appropriate documents.
The potential threats from Wagner depend on the future of the militants. Some of them will sign the agreement with the Russian army and continue to participate in a war in Ukraine but others could stay in Belarus or leave for Africa where Wagner has a significant role in several countries. If Wagner is more interested in other parts of the world, then the Baltic States have less to worry about.
International politics scientist Sigita Struberga agrees that it is hard to determine what Wagner could do in Belarus. „We still know very little for understanding what the destiny of Prigozhin and Wagner militants will be” she admits.
At the same time, Struberga warns that Wagner could organize some „border safety tests” on the Latvian-Russian and Latvian-Belarussian borders similar to those ones in 2020 when Belarus organized the migrants flow. But, according to her, Wagner presence in Belarus is not going to change the security situation around the Baltics, although it could deepen Lukashenko’s dependence on Kremlin. The aim of testing the Baltic and Polish borders could be to increase the feeling of insecurity in the Baltic society. She does not exclude that some Wagner militants could ask for refugee status in Europe, but it is hardly imaginable that they would choose the Baltic States.
Asked why Latvia, in comparison with Poland and Lithuania, has not been as successful in border fence construction, both Skudra and Struberga point out the responsibility of the current and previous government. The politicians were not able to find an agreement on how to improve the building process and make proper pressure on institutions to do it as fast as possible. Simultaneously, Skudra acknowledges that also local swampy soil and difficulties in negotiating with local landowners are problems. However, while recognizing that the slow border fence construction process shows the problems in Latvian bureaucracy and the incapability to organize a smooth procurement process, Struberga pointed out that in the case of serious invasion, the border will not be the key to Latvia’s security. This is a more complex issue and the border is just one of many elements.
NATO’s new strategy: don’t lose one centimeter of land in the Baltic region
Wagner’s recent march towards Moscow and the one-day occupation of Rostov-on-Don raised the possibility of Russia plunging into instability – or even chaos – a scenario that might threaten the security of its neighbors. The crisis was settled, but then came the news that Wagner fighters would move to Belarus; there were even rumors that Prigozhin’s army was going to use that country to launch attacks on the Baltic states and/or Poland.
Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis announced that the speed with which the militants advanced to Moscow showed their capabilities. He also pointed out that the capitals of the Baltic States are only a hundred kilometers from the territories where Wagner carries out its activities.
The details of the Lukashenko-brokered agreement that ended the mutiny are scarce, and no one said publicly how many Wagnerites would move to Belarus – if any – how long are they expected to be there and what they would actually do. Nonetheless, the Baltic States beefed up their border security.
Also, Latvian foreign minister Edgars Rinkevics emphasized that this issue must be looked at together with the context of the protection of the Baltic States, NATO, and the EU’s eastern part.
As a result, Germany announced that it is ready to deploy around 4000 soldiers or one brigade in Lithuania. That followed an announcement made last year, prior to Prigozhin’s rebellion, that Canada would lead a multi-national brigade in Latvia. Such a step had been taken after the change of the principles of the protection of the Baltic States. If earlier it was expected that in the event of an invasion of the Baltics, NATO forces would retake the Baltics, now the main principle is not to lose even a centimeter of the territory of the Baltic States.
