New NATO members Finland and Sweden are increasingly involved in the security of the Baltic region, which has seen a number of aggressive Russian moves including sabotages of undersea infrastructure. However, the potential for cooperation with the Baltic countries has merely been tapped.
Securing the undersea infrastructure, a top priority
Finland has been a NATO member since April 4, 2023, while Sweden - since March 7, 2024. Both countries had maintained neutrality for decades, thus avoiding aggravating their relations with Russia. However, the “red line” was crossed on February 24, 2022. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine forced both countries to rethink their neutrality doctrine.
The Baltic states immediately welcomed the move by the two Nordic countries, as their accession significantly bolstered regional security. In the event of an invasion of the Baltics, the NATO allies would now have access to the Baltics from Sweden and Finland. Before, the Baltics were connected to NATO, or more precisely Poland, only through the so called Suwalki Gap, a narrow strip of land bordered on one side by the Russian Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, and on the other by Belarus. Secondly, with the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, Russia's ability to take control of the Baltic Sea has been seriously diminished. Both Finland and Sweden have highly professional and well equipped armed forces, albeit not very big ones. Finland also has in place a general mobilization program, which means that a significant number of Finns know how to handle a weapon and are prepared for war if necessary, while Sweden boasts one of the strongest navies in the region.
Sandis Šrāders, a researcher at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, points out that even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Latvia had cooperated with Nordic countries, such as Sweden, by concluding cooperation agreements on monitoring the Baltic Sea. Latvia also used and still uses the weapons produced in Sweden. Another expert addressed by “Veridica”, former and long-time State Secretary of the Ministry of Defense Jānis Garisons, is more skeptical. He admits that talk of deepening cooperation in the Baltic Sea has been going on for years, but the recent rupture of the Finnish-Estonian power cable “Estlink 2” raises questions. The leaders of the Baltic states and NATO did come up with a potential solution in Helsinki on January 14. Accordingly, the Baltic Sea allies will patrol the sea to monitor their infrastructure. The details, however, remained secret for security and operational reasons. However, experts acknowledge that the inclusion of both Nordic countries in NATO means deeper cooperation. Monitoring the infrastructure in the Baltic Sea in a NATO framework also will be more coordinated and, thus, more effective. Garisons emphasizes that Latvia called on other Baltic Sea countries to collaborate to protect the infrastructure several years ago but nothing had been decided. The defense must be coordinated because a breach of the infrastructure or a security crisis affects everybody, no matter in whose territorial waters ir occurs.
Security has improved, but there is room for growth
Experts agree that, after the two Nordic countries joined NATO, regional security, including that of Latvia, has improved. The aforementioned joint readiness of the Baltic Sea NATO countries to protect infrastructure in the Baltic Sea is one example of that improvement, but not the only one. For instance, almost 700 Swedish army soldiers will arrive in Latvia in mid-February to supplement the multinational forces stationed in Latvia. Sweden will be the 14th country to have soldiers deployed in the Canadian-led military mission in Latvia.
Meanwhile, in May 2024, a military vehicle factory built by the Finnish state-owned company “Patria” and the Norwegian company “Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace AS” was opened in the northern Latvian city of Valmiera, near Estonia. It is the largest factory of its kind built in Latvia since the country’s restoration of independence, in 1991, and it shows Finland’s deeper involvement in the defense infrastructure of Latvia and the entire Baltics. Garisons feels that Latvia has learned and can continue to learn from Finland how to build a total national defense system that involves the entire society. Unlike other European countries, Finland did not eliminate its defense capabilities after World War II, he points out.
Jānis Garisons welcomes the arrival of Swedish soldiers in Latvia. “It is good news, but the question is: do the Swedes have enough soldiers overall? Finland [thanks to the total defense program] can assemble large in a short time and very large forces in a longer period. The Swedes have good naval and air forces, but not so many marines,” Garisons points out.
He also notes that the deployment of Swedish soldiers into Latvia is also in the former’s interest as, if war is to be fought, it is better for Swedes to fight it on Latvian territory.
Sandis Šrāders thinks that weapons production in the Baltics and Nordic countries should be regional and mutually coordinated, not a national issue. Not to sell, but to produce. The production of air defense technologies in Latvia is particularly important, as the experience in Ukraine shows how widely Russia uses drones and other air forces.
As for monitoring in the Baltic Sea, Jānis Garisons thinks it is not just about cooperation, but also about getting tough. Attacks on cables will end when Russia is punished. For example, Russians will not get their ship back if it cuts a cable. “Russia only understands the language it speaks” , he explains.
Russia, a threat for the Baltic region
Given the diversity of NATO member states and their particular concerns regarding security, the Baltic and Northern countries also have to keep their region high on the Alliance’s agenda. However, they also need to be ready to collectively take security matters into their own hands. “If the US focuses only on China, and Europe still does not think about defense, then the Baltics, the Nordics, and Poland will have to cooperate more closely,” stresses Jānis Garisons.
The most pressing concern for the Baltic countries is related to Ukraine. It is not clear what the newly-elected US president Donald Trump is going to do, how his decisions are going to influence the war in Ukraine, and whether Europe will become militarily stronger. Garison feels that “If there is the worst scenario in Ukraine, this is a catastrophe for us. [Russian president Vladimir] Putin is not going to stop. The war machine is going on and even if he signs some peace agreement we can wait for a new attack in five years”.
Sandis Šrāders has no doubts that Russia will do everything to undermine the cooperation between the Baltics and Northern countries: “While Russia is fighting in Ukraine, there are no threats of direct attack. However, any for Russia favorable peace agreement will let it regain its strength and, probably, organize somewhere a new attack”.
