For four months, Georgians have been protesting daily against the abandonment of the European path by a government seen as pro-Russian. The increasingly harsh response of the authorities has failed to deter the protesters.
Georgia’s worst political crisis in years continues into 2025, following a year marked by mass protests, accusations of electoral fraud and the derailment, by the ruling Georgian Dream party, of the country’s European integration path.
A battle between the people and the [ruling Georgian Dream] Party is being fought on the streets of Georgian cities. The stake: Georgia’s path towards the EU vs. a return to Russia’s orbit.
Russia has also co-opted North Korea in the war against Ukraine and is stepping up its operations in Moldova and Georgia. Moscow seems to be preparing for a final showdown against the West.
The elections will be not only a struggle for power but also an important geopolitical event that will define the future of a country at a crossroads between the West and rapprochement with Russia.
The South Caucasus has a strategic position between Asia and the Black Sea, but its stability – and prosperity – are blocked by the three powers vying for influence there: Russia, Turkey and Iran.
What the West could learn from their experience
Georgia’s de facto leader Bidzina Ivanishvili wants Tbilisi to apologize for the 2008 war Russia waged against his country. In return he promises Georgia’s reunification under a scenario that would benefit Moscow.
Tbilisi claims that oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili was targeted for assassination by a cabal that also tried to kill Donald Trump and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. Georgia’s opposition says this is nonsense.
Following the US announcement to review bilateral relations with Georgia, the EU announced the suspension of the country's accession to the European Union. The party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili will no longer be able to use the successes of European integration in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Against the backdrop of a crisis in Georgia's relations with the West, Tbilisi is increasing ties with China, which is now building a strategic deep water port on the Black Sea.
Though most Georgians support Euro-Atlantic integration, the ruling Georgian Dream forced a Russian-inspired law to silence civil society and is increasingly critical of the West. Georgia's EU partners are warning that the law will hinder the country's path to European integration, while the United States is talking about revising bilateral relations and introducing personal sanctions against Georgian officials.
Georgia could restrict the rights of the LGBT community. The move would hinder the country’s European integration.
With elections looming this year, Georgia’s éminence grise, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, returned to politics. Shortly after that, a new, pro-Russian premier was appointed.
A scandal regarding an icon depicting Stalin in Tbilis’s main cathedral brought into spotlight efforts by pro-Russians and Russian propaganda to revive the cult of the former dictator. Following protests against the icon, the ruling Georgian Dream, which claims to be committed to Euro-Atlantic integration, unveiled Russian-inspired plans to criminalize religious insults.
Georgia was granted EU candidate country in late 2023, but it needs to undertake a number of reforms before the actual negotiations would start. The European Council’s decision came following a complicated year, when the ruling Georgian Dream was faced with criticism from the West and domestic turmoil for what were perceived as pro-Russian and authoritarian policies. Veridica spoke with the co-founder of the Center for Strategic Analysis (GSAC), former Georgian Ambassador to Russia Valery Chechelashvili about how the events of 2023 could affect the future of Georgia, considering the fact that 2024 is an election year.
The recent killing of a Georgian by Russian troops brought into spotlight Moscow’s policy of encroaching of Georgian land. It was also an attempt to sabotage Tbilisi’s EU integration.
The dismantling of the Nagorno Karabakh republic was the most important change in the South Caucus since Turkey (re)emerged as a powerhouse there. More changes might follow.
As experts warn that Georgia will not be granted EU candidate status this year, authorities allege there was a coup plot and the parliament impeaches the president.
Georgia is increasingly economically dependent on Russia, which generates security risks for Tbilisi. There are also concerns that Moscow is circumventing Western sanctions through Georgia.
The Georgian Dream proposes an anti-oligarch law to unblock Georgia's path to the EU. The law protects Bidzina Ivanishvili and was criticized by the Venice Commission.
While Georgia hopes to be granted EU-candidate status, its government seems unwilling to reform the judiciary, as demanded by both Brussels and the US.
Georgian President Salome Zourabishvili is increasingly distancing herself from the ruling Georgian Dream party that helped her win the elections. Zourabishvili opposes the Georgian Dream increasingly anti-Western rhetoric and seems poised to challenge the Georgian Dream with a new political movement that would bring Georgia closer to the EU.
Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream was recently forced to drop a Russian-inspired bill. The party seems determined to return to this project, which may compromise Georgia's European path, but is promoted by Russian propaganda. The problem for the Georgian Dream - and for Moscow - is that most of the population opts for Euro-Atlantic integration.
Formally, Tbilisi maintains its course towards integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, but the movement towards the West has been on inertia lately, while Moscow's influence is only growing. The ruling party, founded by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, increasingly links national interests with his personal interests, be it political or business related. At a decisive moment for Georgia's future, such a policy may prove fatal.
Russia’s imperialistic drive is the result of policies in the “liberal” ‘90s, which the West and Ukraine turned a blind eye to at the time, the Russian independent media writes. Independent publications also claim that, by invading Ukraine, Russia brought European closer together. Previously, Moscow was bankrolling MEPs to gather support for Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Independent journalists have also analyzed the attitude of Russian artists towards the war, and noticed that those artists who are particularly popular with the younger generations refrained from supporting the war and even criticized it.
