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Following the US announcement to review bilateral relations with Georgia, the EU announced the suspension of the country's accession to the European Union. The policy of the ruling Georgian Dream has already begun to bring not only reputational damage, but also real risks: Georgia’s defense sector will be short of more than $60 million in Western aid in the coming year. Meanwhile, experts note that the party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili will no longer be able to use the successes of European integration in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Georgia saw the first results after the start of the review relations with the USA
After the adoption of the law on foreign agents in Georgia, the United States repeatedly warned its strategic partner: the Russian-inspired law undermines the level of democracy in the country. And already at the end of May, Washington moved from words to actions.
The United States announced the beginning of a procedure for reviewing relations with Georgia. And while the Georgian authorities tried to convince the population that this statement would not in any way affect the development of bilateral relations with the main strategic partner, Washington imposed the first visa sanctions against a dozen Georgian high-ranking officials. And a month later, on July 1, during a discussion of US foreign policy, which took place at the Brooklyn Institute in Washington, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the possible continuation of sanctions against Georgia.
“We and many other countries have not only expressed our deep concerns about it, especially its passage; we’ve taken action to manifest those concerns. And I think you’re likely to see more of that. I think it’s clearly antithetical to the European direction that Georgia wants to take, and that clearly the majority of the Georgian people want to take,” Blinken said.
But before the ruling party had time to recover from this information, another disappointing news came from the Pentagon: the United States announced an indefinite postponement of the Noble Partner multinational exercises traditionally held in Georgia.
“The decision to postpone this iteration of NOBLE PARTNER is due to the Georgian government's false accusations against the United States and other western entities of pressuring Georgia to open a second front against Russia to alleviate pressure on Ukraine, and of participating in two coup attempts against the ruling party. As such, the United States Government has determined that this is an inappropriate time to hold a large-scale military exercise in Georgia,” the department’s official statement said.
The Noble Partner exercise was scheduled to take place in Georgia from July 25 to August 6. The United States has been conducting these exercises since 2015, when a joint training center for Georgian and NATO troops was opened at the Vaziani military base near Tbilisi.
At the same time, the statement noted that the Pentagon will continue to cooperate with the Georgian Armed Forces as Washington seeks to “continue to strengthen Georgia’s ability to defend its sovereignty and maintain its territorial integrity.”
Meanwhile, Washington has not given up on the idea of adopting the MEGOBARI Act, which would impose sanctions against the Georgian Dream. On July 11, the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs adopted the document.
According to the bill, within 60 days of its enactment, the Secretary of State must identify key individuals who are “materially responsible for undermining or harming democracy, human rights, or security in Georgia.” In addition, no later than 90 days after enactment of the act, the Director of National Intelligence, in cooperation with the State Department, must submit a report to Congress on Russian and Chinese influence in Georgia.
However, the document also implies encouragement if Georgia “meets the basic political criteria.” In this case, the MEGOBARI act provides for the liberalization of the visa regime for Georgian citizens in the United States and the start of negotiations on the opening of a “preferential trade regime.”
Georgia was not on the agenda at the anniversary NATO summit in Washington
Meanwhile, despite the crisis in relations between Tbilisi and Washington, Georgian Foreign Minister Ilia Darchiashvili received an invitation to attend the anniversary NATO summit in Washington. However, many experts note: the fact that Georgia at the summit, as last year, is represented by a delegation only at the level of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, indicates that the country does not appear on the Alliance’s agenda.
It is noteworthy that for the first time since the decision of the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, the Declarationof the summit in Washington, adopted by the heads of allied states on July 11, does not contain the wording that “Georgia will become a member of the alliance.” In the final declaration, Georgia is mentioned only once, in paragraph 17, where the declaration “calls on Russia to withdraw its armed forces from the Republic of Moldova and Georgia, which are stationed there without their consent.”
However, Georgia is not mentioned in paragraph 28, dedicated to partner countries, which mentions Moldova, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. And also Georgia is not mentioned in the article concerning the Black Sea region (Article 31).
The process of Georgia's integration into the European Union has actually been suspended
Just a few months after Georgia received EU candidate status, the country's European integration process was suspended. EU Ambassador to Georgia Pavel Gerchinsky announced Brussels' decision on July 9.
For months now, we have sent a clear signal that if the Foreign Influence Transparency Act passes, there will be consequences. The law was passed and the time for results has come.”
Pavel Gerchinsky also announced the freeze of financial assistance in the amount of 30 million euros for the defense sector of Georgia.
“The EU ministers also agreed that the financial assistance that we provided to the Georgian government will now be directed towards civil society and free media,” the ambassador said.
A few days before Pavel Gerchinsky’s statement, the European Council, following a meeting of EU leaders, published a document in which it called on the Georgian authorities to “clarify their intentions” regarding European integration and the country’s foreign policy.
“The European Council calls on the Georgian authorities to clarify their intentions by changing the current course of action, which jeopardizes Georgia’s path to the EU and leads to a de facto suspension of the accession process,” the statement said.
Meanwhile, following the United States, Germany also announced a review of relations with Georgia. In a conversation with journalists, German Ambassador to Georgia Peter Fischer also said that Germany decided not to take on any new financial obligations to Georgia.
“As for Germany, we are also reviewing our relations with Georgia. As you know, we have a very broad and deep relationship. Together with the United States of America, we are one of the largest donors of development cooperation in Georgia. We have decided not to take on any new obligations to Georgia, therefore there are no new financial obligations for Georgia from Germany at the moment.”
The German armed forces also canceled their participation in the Noble Partner exercise. “We canceled a large legal forum that took place in Tbilisi last year and was supposed to take place this summer in Berlin. We are considering further actions,” said Peter Fischer.
And the very next day after this statement, French Ambassador to Georgia Sheraz Ghasri announced that France had also decided to suspend financial assistance to the Georgian government.
On June 27, the European Council came to the conclusion that the path to joining the European Union has been de facto suspended, this is the result of decisions taken by the Georgian government, which everyone knows about. For this reason, we have decided to temporarily suspend our direct assistance to the Georgian budget and increase assistance to civil society and the media. The Georgian government must change course to return to what we want to do, which is to continue to support Georgia on its European path in all areas,” said Sheraz Ghasri.
Georgian Dream hopes for a ”reset of relations” after US presidential elections
The ruling party responded to the EU and US decisions related to the suspension of defense assistance to Georgia by saying that these steps do not meet the Georgian authorities' expectations regarding a reset of relations. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze once again emphasized that "in light of the political events of the last four years, these relations really need a reset."
“I would like to respond to the decision of the USA and the European Union to suspend the allocation of funds in defence. This decision is unfortunate. It’s unfortunate because it doesn’t align with our expectations for restarting our relationships.I must emphasize that considering the recent political developments of the past four years, it is crucial to reset these relations. For this, the Georgian side, our government, and the state are fully ready, and we are waiting for the next steps. Of course, such decisions are counterproductive in terms of restarting relationships. However, I hope that pragmatic, rational, correct, and fair steps will be taken in the future, and it is these steps that will contribute to restarting the relations between the USA and Georgia. We are fully ready for this,” said Irakli Kobakhidze.
Bidzina Ivanishvili say "Global War Party" want to open a "second front" against Russia
At the same time, the founder and honorary chairman of the ruling party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, during the announcement of the start of the Georgian Dream election campaign Ahead of parliamentary elections in the fall of 2024, once again accused the West of trying to influence the internal political life of Georgia. The oligarch stated that the ”Global War Party” has significant influence on today's American and European bureaucracies, which creates the impression in Georgian society that Georgia is in conflict with the United States and the European Union.
In addition, the leader of the ruling party once again used the “second front” narrative, according to which European countries allegedly want to drag Georgia into a war in order to ease the situation in Ukraine.
“The aspiration of the Global War Party is clear. Since they are sure that we will not go to war and we will not sacrifice Georgia to share Ukraine’s fate, they are making the last attempt to bring back into the government the agents’ network, the collective National Movement, which will take this step as soon as they are tasked. That is why they are lobbying for the old and the new National Movement – Saakashvili, Gvaramia, Zurabishvili, Khazaradze, Gakharia, Bokeria and other politicians without a motherland who will subscribe to any order they receive. “Either you fight, or you leave [power]” – this is a totally unacceptable proposal, and the Georgian people will give a clear asnwer to it on October 26,” Ivanishvili said.
At the same time, it is obvious that the Georgian government is betting on the upcoming elections in the United States. During his speech to party supporters, Bidzina Ivanishvili said that if the Republicans win, not only will the war in Ukraine end, but Georgia’s relations with Western countries will also significantly improve.
“The ongoing war in Ukraine will end in a year at most, and if the Republicans win the US presidential election, the war could end as early as January. Therefore, the main thing is to win this little time, and as soon as the war is over, all misunderstandings with America and Europe will immediately become a thing of the past, and Georgia will become a completely different subject of interest for world political players,” Ivanishvili said.
Meanwhile, experts in Georgia note that the actions of the EU and the United States make it clear that the campaign waged by the ruling Georgian Dream has finally reached the limit of patience for the European Union and the United States. The founder of the European-Georgian Institute (EGI), George Melashvili, in a conversation with Veridica, notes that the West has very clearly drawn a red line in relation to the Georgian government.
“The EU and the US have drawn a very clear red line. First of all, this is holding elections. If the elections are not held at a minimum level of democracy, then, of course, we will receive all types of sanctions that one can imagine, including stopping the visa-free regime with EU countries.
The fact that the leader of the Georgian Dream, contrary to all protocols, actually swears allegiance to the American presidential candidate - this also does not help the existing situation.
On the other hand, when the influence of one factor decreases, the influence of another increases. In our case, we are talking about the main regional threat to Georgia – the Russian Federation,” Melashvili said.
At the same time, the expert says that the crisis in Georgia’s relations with the EU and NATO could seriously affect the ratings of the ruling party ahead of the parliamentary elections. „The majority of the country's population still supports integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Now, when Western partners are consistently introducing restrictions and talking about reconsidering relations with Georgia, the Georgian Dream may face a serious electoral problem.”
“We are already seeing a serious electoral problem for Georgian Dream. They are losing their entire pro-Western electorate. They themselves understand this problem very well, and that is why propaganda is very actively engaged in creating a parallel reality in which all the problems of the Georgian Dream will end in January, when the powers of the new US President come into force. Of course, this is not so and, of course, this whole situation greatly affects the rating of Georgian Dream”, noted George Melashvili.
