The Russian Dream “reunification plan” is a dream scenario for Russia

The Russian Dream “reunification plan” is a dream scenario for Russia
© EPA/PAVEL WOLBERG   |   Russian soldiers take position to block the way of a convoy of Georgian soldiers to the Georgian town of Gori, 14 August 2008.

Ahead of the parliamentary elections in Georgia in October this year, the ruling Georgian Dream party decided to make the restoration of the country's territorial integrity the main theme of its election campaign. After Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008, 20% of Georgia's territory is under Russian occupation. In order to attract votes, the Georgian Dream decided to use a sensitive topic for Georgian society and promised to achieve reunification by peaceful means. For its sake, the party said that it’s willing to apologize Abkhazians and Ossetians for the 2008 war. All that the Georgian Dream needs in return is enough votes to achieve a so-called constitutional majority, that would allow it to change the Constitution.

Critics are claiming that the constitutional majority would pave the way for Georgia to recognize the independence of the separatist republics, and that the whole plan seems to be made in Russia’s interest. They point out that when they speak about war and reconciliation, the Georgian Dream representatives fail to mention that Russia was the aggressor during that war.

Ivanishvili wants Georgia to apologize for a Russian war of aggression

On September 14, during a pre-election meeting in the city of Gori, which was repeatedly bombed by the Russian army during the 2008 war, the leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch that made his money in Russia and is widely regarded as Georgia’s eminence gris, said that if he wins the parliamentary elections on October 26, his party will apologize to the Ossetian people for the August 2008 war and will hold “Nuremberg Trials” for former President Mikheil Saakashvili and his government.

"Immediately after the elections on October 26, when the instigators of the war are brought to trial, when all those responsible for the destruction of Georgian-Ossetian brotherhood and coexistence receive the strictest legal response, we will definitely find the strength to apologize for the fact that, while carrying out his mission, the traitor [United National Movement - UNM] consigned our Ossetian sisters and brothers to the flames in 2008”, Ivanishvili said.

The call by the founder of the Georgian Dream provoked a sharp reaction from Georgian society. Opponents of the government considered his statement humiliating and anti-state. The leaders of Georgia's main opposition party, the United National Movement, called it a betrayal, claiming that it plays into the hands of Russian interests and undermines the dignity of the country. They accused Ivanishvili of shifting the blame for the war from Russia to Georgia and betraying the memory of the fallen soldiers.

Party Chair Tina Bokuchava, a representative of the UNM, said that Ivanishvili's apology is "one of the most shameful and treacherous steps" that insults the families of the fallen heroes, and stressed that Georgia should not apologize to its enemy.

Conflict specialist and former State Minister for Reconciliation Paata Zakareishvili believes that oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili's statement has a political subtext. In a conversation with Veridica, he noted that the topic of reconciliation with Sukhumi (Abkhazia) and Tskhinvali (South Ossetia) in the upcoming October elections could be used by the ruling party to manipulate public perceptions:

"Using the concept of an apology without mentioning the Russian aggression of 2008 is criminal. All [of Georgia’s] conflicts are connected to the Russian aggression. And suddenly Russian aggression is ignored, leaving Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetian relations without foundation or ground”, Zakareishvili said.

Undeterred by this criticism, the Georgian Dream moved forward with its campaign. The party started campaigning under the slogan "No to war - choose peace”. Banners with footage comparing war-torn cities in Ukraine and peaceful Georgia appeared all over Tbilisi, in what was perceived as a warning of what could happen to Georgia if the opposition comes to power.

Party officials also started to ask for a constitutional majority, and that immediately led to speculations that the plan is to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and then move towards a confederation with them. That scenario was put forward by Abkhaz journalist Inal Khashig, and it was also mentioned by opposition MP from the "Eurooptimists" Roman Gotsiridze. The deputy is convinced that the ruling party is acting directly on instructions from Russia.

"By this point, the "Georgian Dream" probably means the creation of a confederation with Abkhazia, which means that the authorities are preparing to recognize its independence. This statement by the "Georgian Dream" can be called a "program of betrayal”, Gotsiridze noted.

The Georgian Dream plan: flaunted at the UN, rejected by the opposition and the separatists

The Georgian Dream even took its plan to the UN, as Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze mentioned it during his speech at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. In the run-up to the event, Georgian media wrote that he could express his readiness to sign an agreement with Sukhumi and Tskhinvali on the non-use of force from the international rostrum, which Moscow and the separatist regimes have been demanding from Tbilisi since the end of the "August war".

In the past, the Georgian authorities have consistently stated that Moscow is a party to the conflict for Tbilisi, therefore, signing such an agreement is only possible with it. At the same time, Georgia has unilaterally undertaken an obligation not to use force for many years. But Russia tried to make the de facto governments of Abkhazia and South Ossetia subjects of this agreement.

However, after a wave of criticism, the prime minister did not make such a statement from the UN rostrum. At the same time, in his speech, Kobakhidze once again emphasized the importance of a peaceful settlement and preserving Georgia's integrity and avoided mentioning Russia as an aggressor.

"I would like to take this opportunity to address our people on the other side of the occupation line, in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region. All our steps are aimed at helping our people, and one day we, together with our children, will be able to live together in a happy, united and developed Georgia. On this side of the occupation line, we will always welcome you with open arms. We must restore all the destroyed bridges in our country...

Despite the fact that 20% of our territory is illegally occupied, we continue to move forward, grow and work so that our children live in a better, stronger and more dignified Georgia”, the Prime Minister said.

The opposition sharply criticized Irakli Kobakhidze's speech for not mentioning Russia as an aggressor. But the Georgian Dream justified itself by saying that everyone already knows who the occupier is. The party's executive secretary Mamuka Mdinaradze emphasized that it was not necessary to mention Russia in this context.

Representatives of the self-proclaimed republics were also skeptical about Kobakhidze's speech. In Tskhinvali, they said that any talk of unity is a "political fantasy”, since for them this issue has been resolved once and for all. In Sukhumi, they emphasized that such statements by the Georgian authorities are an ignorance of reality, adding that "Georgia is not ready for dialogue on equal terms”.

A plan that seems tailor-made for Russia

Russia was quick to welcome the Georgian Dream’s initiative. On September 29, at a press conference following participation in the 79th session of the UN General Assembly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the current Georgian leadership is taking an objective approach to assessing the 2008 war.

"It is obvious that the current Georgian leadership is simply honestly assessing the past. They said so: "We want historical reconciliation”, Lavrov said.

In addition, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed Moscow's readiness to assist in achieving peace "between Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia”.

"And in what form, in what shape this reconciliation can take place - this is up to the countries themselves to decide: both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They are neighbors with Georgia, and some contacts are inevitable there anyway. If there is interest from all sides in normalizing these relations, ensuring non-aggression agreements... we will be ready to help if the parties are interested”, Lavrov said.

Despite the fact that Lavrov mentioned Abkhazia and South Ossetia as entities separate from Georgia, the Georgian Dream responded positively to Lavrov's statement. Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze called it "positive" and expressed hope that effective steps would follow this statement.

"Of course, our government evaluates this statement positively. The fact that Russia welcomes and supports reconciliation is certainly positive. However, I would say that after these statements, it would be good to take some practical steps”.

However, according to Kaladze, it is first necessary to begin developing a plan for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"In a certain part of our territories that is occupied, and today there are Russian military bases, along with these statements, it would be good to begin developing an action plan for the withdrawal of these units from Georgian territory. I repeat once again, the Georgian government will do everything for reconciliation with our "Ossetian brothers and sisters”. Only through peace and mutual forgiveness can we restore territorial integrity and live together”, said Kakha Kaladze.

Conflict expert and former State Minister for Reconciliation and Civic Equality Paata Zakareishvili believes that Lavrov's statement indicates that Moscow is participating in Georgia's election campaign and that Russia has very clear positions on Georgia's territorial integrity.

"Ivanishvili has recently been increasingly talking about territorial integrity and in its name he is asking the Georgian to give his party a Constitutional majority. And against this background, Russia, represented by Lavrov, clearly states that there are no illusions: we can help you in a conversation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but only as independent entities.

But Kakha Kaladze's statement looked even more shameful against this background. Nothing else could be expected from Lavrov. Kaladze, while expressing approval, did not say a word about Europe. This is, of course, clear support from the Georgian authorities for Russia, and not Europe, to assume the role of a mediator in this matter”, the expert noted.

Paata Zakareishvili also said that the readiness of the Georgian Dream to make concessions to the Kremlin may be connected with the desire not to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but to preserve its own power. The idea of ​​a confederation, according to him, implies recognition of the independence of the occupied regions, which will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the ratings of the ruling party.

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