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Georgia was granted EU candidate country in late 2023, but it needs to undertake a number of reforms before the actual negotiations would start. The European Council’s decision came following a complicated year, when the ruling Georgian Dream was faced with criticism from the West and domestic turmoil for what were perceived as pro-Russian and authoritarian policies. Veridica spoke with the co-founder of the Center for Strategic Analysis (GSAC), former Georgian Ambassador to Russia Valery Chechelashvili about how the events of 2023 could affect the future of Georgia, considering the fact that 2024 is an election year.
Georgia was granted EU-candidate status thanks to Ukraine and Moldova, but it needs to do its homework if it wants to move to the negotiations stage
VERIDICA: What were the political landmarks in Georgia in 2023 and how would they shape the future of Georgia?
VALERY CHECHELASHVILI: I would name two main interconnected events. The first was the protests on March 7-9 against the so-called foreign agents law. They showed that civil society in Georgia is mature, strong, and can influence decisions made by the government. But, of course, the most important event of 2023 is the granting of EU candidate status to Georgia. Because this predetermines the path for Georgia’s future development for 10-15 years ahead and starts the irreversible process of Georgia’s approach to the EU with the prospect of membership in it. And this is the main dream of Georgian society, constantly proved by opinion polls that show an 85 to 90 percent support for European integration.
VERIDICA: The European Commission outlined 12 priorities Georgia was supposed to address in order to move forward with the accession process. Just before Georgia was granted candidate status, the country’s Western partners warned that the Tbilisi government had problems implementing the 12 recommendations. And yet, despite that failure, Georgia was granted the candidate status. Why do you think that happened?
VALERY CHECHELASHVILI: I think there were two factors here. The first is that Ukraine and Moldova pulled us along like a locomotive. Because if Georgia had not been given candidate status, then we would have already fallen two steps behind Ukraine and Moldova, and this probably would not have been very logical. Therefore, since the EU was serious about opening the negotiation process with Kyiv and Chisinau, they considered that Tbilisi deserved it, even though we only fulfilled 3 points out of 12. And the second is a geopolitical reason. Because the South Caucasus is an integral part of South-Eastern Europe and the European identity of these three countries (Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia) is not in doubt after we became member countries of the Council of Europe in 1999. And according to its charter, only states that are based on European content are admitted to the Council of Europe. The geopolitical importance of the South Caucasus, from the point of view of the European Union, has greatly increased since Russia launched the war against Ukraine, in terms of transport corridors and opportunities to strengthen European energy security. And Georgia is the only South Caucasus country associated with Europe and the only one of the three that has set EU membership as its main foreign policy objective. Taking into account all these circumstances, the EU did not consider it possible for itself to push Georgia away now. But this does not mean that the European Union is not aware that Georgia hasn’t done its homework. This is further confirmed by the fact that the original 12 recommendations have been regrouped into 9, some have been combined, new points have been added that we need to fulfill so that at the end of next year we can be able to begin negotiations with the European Union on membership. What Ukraine and Moldova will already begin to do at the beginning of this year.
Georgia’s ruling party openness to countries like Russia is motivated by its desire to extend its power
VERIDICA: In recent years, the ruling party in Georgia has been repeatedly accused of maneuvering between the West and Moscow. But, if we look at the latest events: the attempt to pass a pro-Russian law on foreign agents, the restoration of direct flights with Russia, rapprochement with the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban, who is called the European Putin, do you think the Georgian government is still maneuvering or has already moved into Russia’s orbit?
VALERY CHECHELASHVILI: I don’t think that the Georgian government is pro-Russian or pro-European. First of all, the Georgian government is concerned with maintaining its power in the country. You mentioned three countries: Hungary with Orban, Russia with Putin, Georgia, and I would also add a fourth – Belarus. Russia is ruled by Putin, who started a barbaric war in Ukraine; in comparison with this regime, the Georgian government can be considered a model of democracy. Lukashenko, who snatched his victory from the hands of the Belarusian people in the last presidential elections, is a separate story. And Hungary with Orban is a European state, with its own actions, which the European Union does not evaluate as consistent with European values. This is why Orban is in trouble. But all these four states are united by one common trend - none of the leaders of these countries imagines a situation where they would leave power as a result of elections.That is why we sometimes see very bizarre configurations, when the Prime Minister of Georgia is friends with the Prime Minister of Hungary or in Georgia they are trying to pass a law on foreign agents, despite Georgia’s European aspirations, and so on. Because, if you look separately at the law on foreign agents, this is an increase in the government’s influence and pressure on the civil sector and non-governmental organizations, which are a serious challenge from the point of view of the Georgian Dream’s struggle to remain. And, since this danger is felt, it was necessary to pass this law. Therefore, I think they imagine the main task of the Georgian Dream in this way: yes, they want to be in Europe, because of human rights, quality of life, but at the same time, they want to be in power. And this is a contradiction, because the basis of institutional democracies is that power must be replaceable. But this idea is not accepted by the Georgian Dream. Based on this, all these problems arise from the point of view of implementing the 12 points from the European Commission. Because consistent implementation of these 12 points leads to a European state of social order, which naturally implies the possibility of changing power through elections. But now, since we are a candidate country, the control of the European Union will be much stricter, including over the electoral process. There will probably be a long-term group of observers that will monitor the elections. And I think that we have a chance to hold parliamentary elections in 2024 in more or less accordance with European values, which will be a further guarantee of Georgia’s development towards democracy.
President Zourabishvili’s strong pro-EU stance helped her win her confrontation with the ruling Georgian Dream Party
VERIDICA: In 2023, for the first time in the history of Georgia, impeachment proceedings against President Salome Zourabishvili were initiated. The ruling party knew in advance and its representatives said that they would not be able to get enough votes in the Parliament to start the procedure. Why do you think they took this step then?
VALERY CHECHELASHVILI: I think that at the very beginning of the process, maybe the Georgian Dream had illusions that they would be able to get the required 100 votes. But as a result, it turned into a comedy show, which hit the authority of the ruling party very hard. Well, the reasons why they decided to initiate the procedure were not very convincing. I am not a supporter of Salome Zourabishvili and generally believe that the 2018 presidential elections were one of the worst, but Zourabishvili is a politician of a European mindset. She can be accused of many things, but she can’t be accused of not wanting Georgia to move closer to the European Union. And she demonstrated this with every action, including during these unauthorized visits to European capitals. Salome Zourabishvili has done much more to bring Georgia closer to the European Union than the entire government and the ruling party combined. And there is no doubt that the authority of Salome Zourabishvili in Europe will outweigh the entire collective authority and reputation of all members of the Georgian Dream. Nobody knows many of them in Europe, but many people know Salome Zourabishvili.
Now what did this lead to? Impeachment did not take place and this, in turn, strengthened our hopes, which were later justified, about granting us candidate status. Because the society and the parliament supported Zourabishvili’s efforts to bring Georgia closer to the EU, which everyone in European capitals saw very well.
I think that Salome Zourabishvili came out of this situation stronger, and the position of the ruling party were weakened. And in general, I don’t know what they were hoping for, and they could have played out this situation politically much more intelligently.
VERIDICA: Another notable event for Georgia in 2023 was the sanctioning of some Georgians by the United States, which first targeted five judges, and then the former Prosecutor General Otar Partskhaladze. The Georgian opposition said that this was a clear sign to the Georgian government from the West. Do you think the ruling party understood this?
VALERY CHECHELASHVILI: I think that the members of the Georgian Dream are not stupid people. I am sure that there are a lot of people there who have nothing to do with Russia and its interests and are not trying to get their money's worth by helping Russia circumvent sanctions. And such people have nothing to fear, but for those who may somehow be involved in this, I think this is a very serious sign. If anyone had any illusions that they could gain some kind of political capital by trying to speculate on the situation that is now being created by sanctions against Russia, it’s time for them to get rid of these illusions, because the next step could be very tough and unexpected. And the example of former prosecutor general Otar Partskhaladze showed that in the United States they are closely monitoring this and this danger can threaten any official or unofficial person.
2024, a challenging year for Georgia
VERIDICA: Parliamentary elections will be held in Georgia this October. So far, polls show that Georgian society is tired of many years of confrontation between the ruling Georgian Dream and the largest opposition party, the United National Movement. What are we to expect in this election year?
VALERY CHECHELASHVILI: I think that a clear thread from those public opinion polls is that more than half of the voters have not yet made their choice and do not yet know who they will vote for. This is precisely a very big motivation for new faces, new coalitions, parties, and so on to appear in Georgian politics. I think that in the next 2-3 months we will observe the restructuring of this political field, which is very seriously influenced by the factor of the necessary passage of the 5 percent barrier to enter parliament. Because the votes of those parties that will take part in the elections and do not enter parliament will actually go in favor of the ruling party, because according to all public opinion polls, it still remains the leading political force. We are already observing this process, but it will probably enter the active phase from the second half of January. Already in March, I think, we will have a new political configuration, first of all this applies to the opposition, because with the ruling party everything is more or less clear.
VERIDICA: How can the “Mikheil Saakashvili factor” influence the upcoming elections, as the former president is still serving his sentence in a clinic,?
VALERY CHECHELASHVILI: The third President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, rightfully established himself in the history of Georgia, because he carried out unimaginable reforms after coming to power, in fact, from a state that many in the West called failed, he made a state with strong institutions, budget, revenues and so on. Even while in prison, he has the opportunity to make statements and address his supporters. And the fact remains that despite everything that happened to him, there is still a part of society that fundamentally supports Saakashvili’s United National Movement. Therefore, it is too early to write off the third president of Georgia. This will be a very serious factor in the election struggle. We don’t yet know what will happen to Mikheil Saakashvili, I do not rule out that after all the trials are completed, the president may decide to pardon him. In any case, her rhetoric has changed; if earlier she said that “no and never”, then recently she has softened her tone.
VERIDICA: What does Georgia enter 2024 with?
VALERY CHECHELASHVILI: In 2024, Georgia enters as a candidate country for membership in the European Union. We are entering with many of the problems that Georgian society faces, we are entering as a very polarized society and there are very few factors that indicate that we can overcome this polarization. There is a war going on in the background in Ukraine, which has a direct impact on what is happening in Georgia. We are entering as a country in which there is a very uncertain opposition political space and we will have to see this in the coming months. And in many ways, how Georgia ends 2024 will depend not only on politicians, but also on the entire Georgian society, on its willingness to prove its commitment to European values and desire to move closer to the European Union.
