Being a victim of Russian aggression itself, Georgia came under criticism after the Russian invasion of Ukraine due to its cautious condemnation of Kremlin’s aggression and weak support for Kyiv. Later, the "historic failure" on the path to European integration was added to this, as Georgia did not receive candidate status for EU membership. Formally, Tbilisi maintains its course towards integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, but the movement towards the West has been on inertia lately, while Moscow's influence is only growing. The ruling party, founded by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, increasingly links national interests with his personal interests, be it political or business related. At a decisive moment for Georgia's future, such a policy may prove fatal.
Bidzina Ivanishvili, the oligarch who has been leading Georgia for the past decade
In October 2012, for the first time in recent Georgian history, a change of power occurred peacefully, without being brought civil war or revolution. The then recently established Georgian Dream party defeated the ruling United National Movement, whose leader at that time was President Mikheil Saakashvili. The Georgian Dream was established by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Georgian-born businessman who made his fortune in Russia during the turbulent 1990s, who claimed to have sold all his Russian assets before starting his political career.
After Ivanishvili entered politics in 2011, one of the main topics in his rhetoric was improving relations with Moscow, while simultaneously striving for NATO and EU membership. Ivanishvili accused President Mikheil Saakashvili of unleashing a war with Russia in 2008, resulting in Tbilisi losing control over Sukhumi and Tskhinvali and depriving Georgia of the Russian market through his short-sighted policy.
Under Ivanishvili, negotiations began between Tbilisi and Moscow on economic, humanitarian, and cultural issues (in the Abashidze-Karasin format). Exports of wine and agricultural products, as well as regular transport links, were resumed.
Experts have repeatedly warned that Georgia has become more dependent on the Russian economy, which is very dangerous. The government, on the other hand, told Georgians that if they did not want links with Russia, they would not be able to sell wine, and tourists would not come.
However, there was no visible political rapprochement between the parties: Russia still insisted that Abkhazia and South Ossetia were independent states, and Georgia "must recognize the new realities." Tbilisi, in turn, insisted that there could not be three Russian embassies in Georgia, meaning that diplomatic relations would not be restored as long as Russia follows its current policies regarding the separatist regions.
At the same time, Georgian Dream has repeatedly touted the prevention of war in the country as its main achievement. "The Georgian Dream government became the first in almost 30 years of Georgia's history without a war in the country," the party notes.
When he established the party almost 12 years ago, Ivanishvili promised to leave as soon as he achieved stabilization of Georgia's domestic and foreign policy, including the removal of Mikheil Saakashvili and his United National Movement party from power.
In 2013, Ivanishvili did announce his retirement from politics, saying that this goal had been achieved. Georgian Dream candidate Giorgi Margvelashvili won the presidential election that year.
In 2018, Ivanishvili returned to Georgian Dream and was elected its chairman. In October 2020, the ruling Georgian Dream won for the third time in a row the parliamentary elections.
In January 2021, Ivanishvili once again announced his departure from Georgian politics, citing his age (he was 65 at that time) as one of the reasons for his decision. He expressed confidence that his departure would not weaken the party but instead would make it viable and motivated. Despite announcing his retirement from Georgian politics, Ivanishvili is still considered the informal leader of Georgia.
Georgia’s policy of "non-irritating" Russia and the cooling of relations with Ukraine
Before the start of a full-scale war, in early February last year, the Georgian parliament adopted a resolution in support of Ukraine. There was, however, a catch: there was no mention whatsoever of the very country threatening Ukraine, Russia. Most of the opposition parties votred against the document. Later, the chairman of the ruling party, Irakli Kobakhidze, said: "The text of the resolution fully reflects the position of Tbilisi and is formulated taking into account the state interests of Georgia."
After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Tbilisi failed to support Western sanctions against Russia. Prime Minister Garibashvili noted that it would not be in Georgia's interests.
This led to a sharp cooling of relations with Kyiv. Ukraine recalled its ambassador from Tbilisi. President Zelensky’s office said that Georgia had a “historic chance to take back Abkhazia and South Ossetia.” Tbilisi retorted that Kyiv was trying to open a second front in Georgia. Supporters of ex-president Saakashvili then once again accused the ruling Georgian Dream party of pro-Russian politics.
In April last year, the main intelligence department of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that “the Russians are establishing a channel for smuggling sanctioned goods through the territory of Georgia” and that the channel had been greenlight by high-ranking Georgians. Officials in Tbilisi rejected the allegations as politically motivated lies. However, a few weeks later, an audio recording of a purported conversation between Ivanishvili and Russian oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov, who was sanctioned by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was leaked online. On that recording, the voice attributed to Yevtushenkov offers some kind of scheme to circumvent sanctions.
The Kyiv – Tbilisi relations are also marred by the so-called "Saakashvili Factor". Officials in Kyiv have repeatedly appealed to the Georgian government with a request to release Saakashvili, who is currently a citizen of Ukraine and has been under arrest since October 2021. In response to this, the ruling party in Georgia suggests that it is the Ukrainian authorities who are "the authors of the special operation to send Saakashvili to Georgia."
Against the backdrop of cooling relations between Kyiv and Tbilisi, Russia began to lift sanctions on dairy products from Georgia. The Kremlin also talked about the possibility of resuming direct flights with Georgia, which had been interrupted since 2019 at the initiative of Moscow, and the liberalization of the visa regime. The proposal was put forth by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who has repeatedly expressed his approval of the Georgian authorities over the past year. The last time Lavrov praised the Georgian government was on February 2. Then the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Western countries have repeatedly called on the Georgian authorities to "open a second front against Russia", but in response to "the unprecedented pressure from the West to join sanctions against Russia", Georgia continues to be guided by national interests.
Irakli Kobakhidze said Tbilisi would only welcome Russia's lifting of the ban on direct flights between the countries.
“Our position is simple: it was a sanction imposed by Russia on Georgia at the time, in 2019, which, of course, aggravated the situation of our citizens. Let me remind you that 800,000 citizens of Georgia, Georgians, live in the Russian Federation. And if they [the Russian authorities] lift this sanction, then this is their decision. We welcome it, as it will be a boon to our fellow citizens and compatriots. This is our position, and this position is clear."
Georgian Dream’s biggest failure: missing the opportunity to make a leap towards the EU
While declaring absolute adherence to the Euro-Atlantic course of the country, Tbilisi has been increasingly veering away from the Western camp it officially wants to join.
The trigger for the deterioration of relations with the West was the political crisis in Georgia that erupted in 2020, after the parliamentary elections. The opposition accused the government of rigging the elections. Western ambassadors volunteered to mediate negotiations between the authorities and the opposition, and when that was not enough, European Council President Charles Michel personally arrived in Tbilisi. With his mediation, a document was created, designed to end the months-long confrontation between the authorities and the opposition. According to it, the authorities were supposed to release opposition leader Nika Melia, and to carry out judicial reforms. In addition, the government was supposed to hold snap parliamentary elections in 2022 if Georgian Dream wins less than 43% of the vote in the 2021 local elections. The opposition, in turn, had to stop boycotting parliament. However, the ruling party ended by withdrawing from the deal, and that was not received well by the West.
In June 2022, the European Commission temporarily refused to recommend that EU-candidate status should be awarded to Georgia, stating that the country first has to meet certain conditions. Ukraine and Moldova – countries that, like Georgia, were targeted by Russia’s aggression – became EU integration candidates.
Officials in Brussels later explained that the EU would return to discussing about Georgia's candidate status "sometime in 2023", by which time the country should have implemented reforms aimed at reducing political polarization, the judiciary, "deoligarchization" and a number of other issues.
Defying strategic partners: Tbili’s increasing anti-Western rhetoric
“Deoligarchization” is one of the 12 recommendations that Georgia must fulfil in order to obtain the status of an EU candidate. No specific oligarchs were named by the Commission, but opposition MPs were quick to point at Bidzina Ivanishvili, especially since, just a few days before Georgia was denied the candidate status, the European Parliament had called for imposing sanctions on the oligarch. The EP resolution, named “On Violations of Media Freedom and Safety of Journalists in Georgia” noted “the destructive role of the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili in the politics and economy of Georgia, his control over the government and its decisions, including politically motivated persecution of journalists and political opponents.”
The Georgian authorities rejected the resolution, calling it "offensive"; moreover, they claimed that Bidzina Ivanishvili is a philanthropist and that one of the main oligarchs mentioned in the EU recommendations was ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. Then anti-Western rhetoric began to be increasingly heard from Tbilisi. The West was accused that it wants to drag Georgia into the war; those who demanded the country's de-oligarchization in exchange for the prospect of EU membership were criticised. The chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream, Irakli Kobakhidze, said that by adopting a resolution calling for the punishment of Bidzina Ivanishvili, the European Parliament only fuels polarization. Kobakhidze also accused Karl Khartsel, who left the post of EU Ambassador to Georgia in July last year, of bias. Earlier, the EU Ambassador made several critical remarks to the authorities about the stripping of three opposition MPs of their powers and the abolition of the State Inspector Service.
At the same time, Kobakhidze once again stated that "if Georgia got involved in a war, it would be guaranteed the status of a candidate."
The “Saakashivili factor” that might derail Georgia’s dream of a European future
The "litmus test" of the commitment of the Georgian government to European values, as noted in the European Parliament, is the case of Saakashvili. The ex-president was arrested in October 2021 after he returned from Ukraine to his homeland, and he is currently serving a six years sentence in a criminal case which he and his supporters claim it was politically motivated. Saakashvili protested his sentence by going twice into hunger strike. Then his health took a dive which independent experts attributed to intoxication. That led some to believe that the former leader might have been poisoned.
MEPs repeatedly reminded the Georgian authorities that they are responsible for ensuring the health and well-being of Mikheil Saakashvili and called on Tbilisi to send the ex-president abroad for treatment.
At the same time, the West has repeatedly warned that if Saakashvili dies in prison, Georgia's application to join the European Union will be rejected.
The latest Western message to Tbilisi was the adoption, on February 15, by the European Parliament of a resolution “On the situation with former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili”, which calls on the Georgian authorities to release the politician and allow him to be treated abroad, and Brussels to introduce sanctions against the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. 577 votes "for", 33 - "against" with 26 abstentions.
Strasbourg notes that the Saakashvili case should show the commitment of the Georgian government to European values and declared European aspirations, including the commitment of the Georgian government to obtain the status of a candidate member of the EU.” The document also says that the lack of progress in improving Saakashvili's health could cause significant damage to Georgia's reputation and hinder its prospects for EU membership. MEPs are reminding authorities in Tbilisi that they are responsible for the health and well-being of the former president, providing him with proper treatment and respecting his fundamental rights and personal dignity in accordance with the Georgian Constitution and international obligations.
By playing the Moscow card, the Georgian Dream might be playing its own future and Georgia’s stability
Recent sociological surveys show that 70% of Georgia's population support the country's Euro-Atlantic integration and aspire to European values. Common sense – or even an instinct of political survival – says that the ruling Georgian Dream cannot ignore this kind of numbers.
Despite the formal commitment of the Georgian government to a pro-European course, the ruling party, led by Ivanishvili, has increasingly sought to encourage anti-Western sentiments in the country over the past year and a half. Taken together, the statements and actions of the Georgian Dream government remind many of a deliberate attempt to lead Georgia away from the West. Against this backdrop, experts' conclusions about Tbilisi's increasing economic dependence on Russia rather than the West are becoming more and more alarming.
Georgia has less than a year to fulfil the 12 points set by the European Council before the Council makes a decision on granting Georgia candidate status. Therefore, Georgia is facing a historic decision that will affect the country's future: after many years of working towards Euro-Atlantic integration, the actions of a Kremlin-linked oligarch may lead Georgia to turn away from its pro-Western course and towards its northern neighbour. Many observers already see parallels with the events in Ukraine in 2013-2014, when Yanukovych's rejection of Euro-integration resulted in massive protests on the "Euromaidan" and a change in government. This raises concerns about a possible repetition of the Ukrainian scenario in Georgia.
