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As the EU is set to decide in December whether it grants Georgia an official EU candidate state, tensions are rising in the Caucasus country. The Georgian State Security Service (SSG) announced it prevented an attempt state coup, and the ruling party launched impeachment proceedings against President Salome Zourabishvili. Meanwhile, the West continues to send signals to the Georgian government that time is running out to meet the 12 conditions necessary to get candidate status. Experts and the opposition are saying that, most likely, the EU will not grant Georgia the candidate status, and the latest developments are meant both to explain the government’s failure to meet the EU’s demands, and to undermine the country’s EU perspective
The alleged "Ukrainian Euromaidan Scenario"
In mid-September, Georgia's State Security Service stated that a repetition of the Ukrainian "Euromaidan" was being planned in the country. According to the SSG, a group of individuals, both within and outside Georgia, planned to organize destabilization and civil unrest in the country from October to December of the current year, with the ultimate goal of changing the government through violence. Foreign countries were allegedly involved in planning and financing the scheme.
The SSG claimed that the authors of the "revolutionary scenario" include former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs in Mikhail Saakashvili's government, now Deputy Head of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, Georgy Lordkipanidze, former Saakashvili bodyguard Mikhail Baturin, and the commander of the "Georgian Legion" operating in Ukraine, Mamuka Mamulashvili.
According to the SSG, destructive forces plan to create a "tent city," build barricades near Tbilisi's central avenues, strategic facilities, and government buildings, and carry out "other unlawful actions containing elements of serious provocation." Furthermore, Georgy Lordkipanidze and Mikhail Baturin allegedly planned to set up an explosion within the "tent city" leading to casualties among demonstrators and law enforcement officers, as well as to provoke "disorderly shootouts between law enforcement agencies and protesters."
The "training of Georgian youth" who are supposed to stage a "Euromaidan" in Georgia, according to SSG information, is taking place near the Polish-Ukrainian state border with the involvement of the Serbian organization CANVAS (created by former leaders of the "Otpor!" movement, which participated in the overthrow of Yugoslav dictator Slobodan Milosevic).
In interviews with Georgian media, Mamuka Mamulashvili, whom the SSG named as one of the authors of the coup, denied all accusations, calling them "lies". The leader of the "Georgian Legion" believes that in this way, the Kremlin is trying to influence Georgian citizens participating in military operations on the side of Ukraine.
No evidence of the preparation of the Georgian "Euromaidan" was presented by the SSG. The security services only stated that they plan to address the issue "with the relevant authorities of partner countries".
The coup allegations emerged against the background of Georgia’s failure to undertake reforms asked by the EU before granting candidate country status
It is expected that the European Commission will release a preliminary report in October and a final conclusion in December. However, officials in Brussels are already stating that at this stage, Tbilisi has not fulfilled all the requirements. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, stated on September 8th that Georgia has fully implemented only three out of twelve reforms.
The ruling "Georgian Dream" party likely anticipates a negative decision from Europe. In fact, the SSG representative that briefed the media on the alleged coup plot, Bacha Mgeladze, mentioned this outcome, but he said that this is what the “conspirators” are expecting: "The anticipation of conspirators preparing to overthrow the state power is based on the expectation that the published conclusion will be negative. With the information resources they have at their disposal and the artificially attached label of 'pro-Russian' to the government, it will create fertile ground for public unrest and subsequent disorder".
Georgy Melashvili, the founder of the European-Georgian Institute (EGI), told Veridica that the expected failure to meet EU conditions and to get candidate country status would explain why Georgian authorities are attempting to intimidate society with revolutionary scenarios.
Such scenarios are nothing new to the Georgian public, which has become accustomed to periodic reports of a "radical" opposition planning a coup over the eleven years that the ruling "Georgian Dream" party has been in power. During the past decade, the State Security Service has initiated five cases under Article 315 ("Conspiracy or Rebellion with the Aim of Violently Changing the Constitutional Order of Georgia").
In the past, authorities have accused Mikhail Saakashvili or individuals associated with him of plotting conspiracies. In 2014, then-Interior Minister Alexander Chikaidze claimed that the opposition had invited activists from Ukraine and had even begun rapidly purchasing tires in large quantities.
Accusations of an attempted coup resurfaced in the State Security Service after Saakashvili's return to Georgia from Ukraine in October 2021. Several months later, in April 2022, when Georgia, just like today, was expecting a European Commission decision on granting accession candidate status, the ruling party also spoke about the opposition planning a coup if the country did not receive confirmation of its European perspective.
In March 2023, when an attempt to pass a foreign agents law in parliament led to mass protests, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared the events in Tbilisi to the Kiev "Maidan."
US sanctions are signaling that Washington is losing patience with Georgia
According to Georgy Melashvili, the SSG allegations about an attempted coup are an attempt to change the information landscape. He believes this is not the first time the SSG has tried to send such a message, citing instances in 2014 and last year when similar claims were made. Melashvili says that no such scenarios being planned.
On September 15, it was revealed in Georgia that a Russian FSB agent of influence was identified, and it turned out to be the former General Prosecutor of Georgia, Otar Partskhaladze. Interestingly, it was not Georgian intelligence agencies but the United States that made this discovery, after which the U.S. State Department added Partskhaladze to its sanctions list, referring to him as a "Georgian-Russian oligarch".
This marks the second instance of the U.S. imposing sanctions on Georgian government officials. In April, members of the so-called "judicial clan" were placed on the blacklist.
Partskhaladze ended up on the list due to his work in the consulting sector related to the management of Russia's economy. He owns a 50% stake in consulting companies LLC Moscow Business Brokerage and LLC International Business Corporation. The remaining 50% is owned by an employee of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Alexander Onishchenko, who was also sanctioned.
Partskhaladze has completely switched to Russian citizenship and regularly travels to Russia. Onishchenko and the FSB used Partskhaladze to exert influence on Georgian society and politics in Russia's interests. According to available information, Partskhaladze benefited personally from his connections with the FSB.
Otar Partskhaladze served as Georgia's General Prosecutor from November to December 2013, after which he resigned amid a scandal related to his prior criminal record in Germany, related to a 2001 incident; the opposition claims he was arrested for "stealing sneakers", while Partskhaladze says that he was detained for resisting the police.
The ruling "Georgian Dream" party claims that Partskhaladze has had no connections with the government for ten years. The Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, stated that since 2013, the former prosecutor has been a private individual and had no ties to government structures.
The imposition of U.S. sanctions against one of Ivanishvili's close associates sends a clear message to Ivanishvili himself, according to opposition leader Elena Khoshtaria. She believes that Washington's decision is a serious warning to anyone undermining Georgia's national interests and supporting Russia. Khoshtaria sees these sanctions as a clear exposure of the "Georgian Dream" for conducting anti-Western and pro-Russian operations in Georgia.
The Impeachment of Georgia’s President undermines Georgia’s EU perspectives
Georgy Melashvili also told Veridica that the ruling party is attempting to sabotage Georgia's entry into the European Union. One piece of evidence for this is the recent announcement of impeachment proceedings against President Salome Zourabishvili, who took office in 2018 with the support of this party. "Georgian Dream" announced the initiation of impeachment procedures in early September. The reason cited was that the president's visits to Europe were not coordinated with the government.
The administration of the President of Georgia had initially approached the government regarding Salome Zourabishvili's foreign visits, including those to EU countries, back on July 12. However, the request was rejected. The ruling party believed that these visits could harm the country's interests. According to their version, the head of state promotes the idea that Georgia does not deserve candidate status for EU membership.
Despite the refusal, Zourabishvili embarked on a European tour, during which she held meetings with the leaders of Germany, France, and the European Council to seek support for Georgia's European perspective. Following this, the ruling majority initiated the impeachment procedure, accusing the head of state of a gross violation of the Constitution. After the constitutional reform conducted in 2017, the president can represent the country in foreign relations only with the government's consent, as the execution of foreign policy is the prerogative of the cabinet.
Melashvili links the president's prohibitions on European visits with the ongoing process of sabotaging Georgia's pro-Western integration by the authorities. He considers this a highly unwise decision from any perspective, as it results in a loss of control over the media landscape and, at the same time, increases the perception of the president abroad and her domestic popularity.
EU’s final warning to Georgia
In the lead-up to the publication of the European Commission's report on EU expansion and just a few days after "Georgian Dream" initiated impeachment proceedings against the president, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, visited Georgia. Interestingly, the visit was announced less than a week in advance, whereas high-level trips are usually announced much earlier.
In the Georgian opposition's view, Borrell's visit is the government's final warning to begin working on the necessary reforms. However, the ruling "Georgian Dream" party appears confident in terms of complying with the recommendations. Just hours before the arrival of the EU's High Representative, Georgian Foreign Minister Ilya Darchiashvili told journalists that the authorities had done "tremendous work" regarding the 12 recommendations. And the leader of the "Georgian Dream," Irakli Kobakhidze, stated that all 12 points have been "fundamentally" fulfilled.
However, this version contradicts the interim report of the European Commission, which states that Georgia has "fully implemented" only three out of twelve recommendations. According to Borrell, the current priority is depolarization, de-oligarchization, and reform of the judicial and electoral systems. One of the most problematic points for the Georgian government has been the de-oligarchization aspect. Instead, according to many experts, the Georgian authorities continue to sabotage the country's entry into the European Union.
