The October 26 parliamentary elections in Georgia are being called existential. They will be not only a struggle for power but also an important geopolitical event that will define the future of a country at a crossroads between the West and rapprochement with Russia. The oligarch and founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party is increasingly perceived domestically as a force distancing Georgia from the EU in favor of Moscow, meaning that the upcoming elections may become a serious challenge for his team.
A choice between peace and war
The ruling Georgian Dream party calls the upcoming parliamentary elections a kind of referendum in which the population will have to choose between peace and war. This is happening against the backdrop of an unprecedented crisis in relations between the Georgian government and the West and a rapprochement with Moscow.
For the first time, 150 members of parliament will be elected entirely through a proportional system, as opposed to the previous mixed system. Only parties that surpass the five-percent threshold will be able to enter the legislature. If none of them secures a majority, a coalition government will be formed.
However, Georgian Dream is confident of achieving a convincing victory in the elections. For the first time in the country’s history since gaining independence, a ruling party that has been in power for 12 years will participate in elections for the fourth time. Heading the Georgian Dream candidate list is the oligarch and shadow ruler of Georgia—Bidzina Ivanishvili. He is considered the main figure responsible for the shift in the country’s foreign policy course.
In 2012, after winning elections and becoming Prime Minister of Georgia, Ivanishvili remained in office for only about a year. At the end of 2013, he left politics, and although he returned several times afterward, he did not hold any high-ranking positions. However, ahead of the current elections, Bidzina Ivanishvili has once again personally led the Georgian Dream campaign. During campaign events and rallies of the ruling party, he spoke from behind a separate podium enclosed by bulletproof glass.
The key points in Ivanishvili’s speeches focused on the alleged attempts of the “party of global war” to influence Western and Georgian politicians to bring the opposition to power and open a “second front” in Georgia against Russia.
He claimed that difficulties in relations with Europe and the U.S. would fade away once Georgian Dream wins the elections. Additionally, Ivanishvili spoke extensively about the Georgian Dream’s proposal to reflect the special role of the Church in the constitution and adopt constitutional amendments under the banner of protecting family values to restrict LGBTQ rights.
The Georgian opposition unites, promising to save the country’s European future
The opposition also faces challenges. In recent years, it consisted mainly of small parties. The largest among them was the party of former President Mikheil Saakashvili—the United National Movement (UNM). Under these circumstances, most of them had no chance of surpassing the five-percent threshold to enter parliament. Thus, for part of the opposition, uniting forces and running a joint list became a decisive move.
The UNM advocated for participating in the upcoming elections with a single list. However, only the Strategy Aghmashenebeli and European Georgia parties joined that party.
Two other relatively large opposition alliances—Coalition for Change and Strong Georgia—are also expected to pass the electoral threshold. Former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia also decided to participate in the elections independently with his party, For Georgia.
Most opposition parties are focusing their campaigns on saving Georgia’s European future.
In addition, most pro-Western opposition groups have signed the “Georgian Charter,” initiated by President Salome Zourabichvili. The document asks for the repeal of anti-democratic laws that hinder European integration immediately after the elections. The transitional government will be proposed by the president, and after the reforms outlined in the charter are completed, free and fair elections will be held in Georgia.
Six days before the elections, the opposition held a march in Tbilisi titled “Georgia Chooses the European Union.” About one hundred thousand people gathered at Freedom Square to participate in the protest. President Salome Zourabichvili, who has become a unifying figure for the Georgian opposition ahead of the elections, addressed the crowd. She emphasized the importance of freedom and peace and called on citizens to make the right choice on October 26.
Three days later, on October 23, the ruling Georgian Dream party held a counter-rally in Tbilisi, concluding its regional campaign tour. Several hundred thousand people attended the final rally of Bidzina Ivanishvili, but most of them were public sector employees brought to the capital by buses from across the country.
The West is closely watching the elections, fearing that Russia will interfere as it din in Moldova
Meanwhile, Western partners are sending clear signals to Tbilisi ahead of the parliamentary elections, stating that they will closely monitor the voting process. Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission, described the elections as “an important test for Georgian democracy and its path toward EU membership.”
“The actions, statements, and promises of the ruling party in Georgia are steering the country away from EU accession and indicate authoritarianism. Therefore, the EU accession process is effectively on hold,” Borrell stated.
The diplomat compared the situation in Georgia with the recent elections in Moldova. However, he noted that despite increasing pressure from Russia, Chișinău has made significant progress on its path to joining the European Union, while the picture in Tbilisi is gloomier.
Following last week’s referendum in Moldova, where the country almost rejected EU membership, the West is closely watching Georgia for signs of Russian influence, as it has with other former Soviet republics.
Meanwhile, the Georgian Dream leadership has criticized the elections in Moldova. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that the Georgian people and leadership are being misled by claims that Moldova, not Georgia, deserves candidate status and the start of negotiations with the EU.
“Look at the elections in Moldova. You saw what happened: Moldova failed every democratic test. They disqualified candidates for fabricated reasons... They are putting Moldova ahead of us—Moldova, which held such elections. If any criticism is warranted, it should be directed at Moldova,” Kobakhidze said.
The harsh reaction from the Georgian Dream seems to be linked to a statement by ministers from 13 EU member states published last week, stressing that Georgia will not become an EU member unless its government changes course.
Following European leaders, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller also expressed concerns about the elections in Georgia.
“We want free and fair elections to take place in Georgia, and we will closely monitor them in the coming days.”
Earlier, the State Department had voiced deep concerns over the Georgian authorities’ anti-democratic actions, stating that they are incompatible with the norms of EU and NATO membership.
Moscow denies it’s interfering in Georgia’s elections
Fears of Russian interference are supported by a report from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“The Kremlin likely hopes to capitalize on Georgian Dream’s growing pro-Russian stance to promote long-term hybrid efforts to control Georgia and the South Caucasus while reducing Western influence in the region,” the report stated.
Georgian Dream also speaks of unprecedented foreign influence on Georgia’s elections but sees the danger not from Moscow but from a certain “party of global war.”
“We see that not a day goes by without two or three statements from abroad that amount to direct interference… Such an anomaly has never happened in Georgia,” said Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili on Imedi TV.
Similar statements have been made in Moscow. In the past six months, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has repeatedly accused the U.S. of preparing a “color revolution” and a “Tbilisi Maidan” in Georgia. However, the Kremlin denies any intention to interfere in Georgia’s internal affairs.
“We see blatant attempts by Western countries to pressure the Georgian authorities and directly influence the election campaign,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.
Russian state media has also echoed these narratives. For example, Russian propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov dedicated an entire segment of his Sunday show to the elections in Georgia and alleged Western attempts to influence the outcome.
An uncertain election outcome
Pre-election polls paint a mixed picture: some show the ruling party in the lead, while others indicate that opposition parties, collectively, may win more seats. The election outcome remains entirely unpredictable, but one thing is certain: these elections will be the most serious challenge to Georgian Dream’s rule.
Amid the country’s pivot toward Russia and strained relations with the West, more than 80% of Georgian citizens still support EU membership, which means they may vote in favor of pro-European parties.
