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It’s a bad time to be a pro-Russia politician in Bulgaria: little over a month since the invasion in Ukraine started, trust in Moscow is heading to a record low, the public is getting increasingly suspicious of politicians with a soft tone to the Kremlin and several narratives changed seemingly overnight. Russian interference is also becoming more and more visible. “It has been reported to me that Russian spies have worked specifically against relations between Bulgaria and North Macedonia. Someone is trying to wrongfully represent Bulgaria’s interests." PM Kiril Petkov said on March 31. On the same day, Bulgaria’s Specialized Prosecutor’s Office raided the offices of the National Security Agency, likely searching for evidence that the espionage network has extended to the institution.
Despite Bulgaria being in NATO for 18 years, the feeling of “we’re next” quickly caused anxiety waves across the society. Whether Ukraine can hold on under the unrelenting Russian shelling is seen as directly influencing the future of Bulgaria not only by worried citizens but also by members of the ruling coalition: “It’s obvious Bulgaria is next on the list”, said Hristo Ivanov of Democratic Bulgaria. Protests in support of Ukraine filled the streets in Sofia and most of the big towns, volunteers flocked in to help refugees (according to border controls, over 120,000 Ukrainians have entered the country since the start of the war, and 55,000 of them are still based in Bulgaria).
Society’s trust in Kremlin decreases but so is support for Bulgaria’s government
On March 1, polling agency Alpha Research published a report which showed that 32 per cent of the population approves of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s politics, a sharp decrease from March 2020, when Putin’s support level was at 58 per cent. Meanwhile, Defence Minister Stefan Yanev was ousted after controversial statements playing along Kremlin’s rhetoric about the war and replaced by Bulgaria’s representative to NATO Dragomir Zakov who already met with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. Also early in March, the topic of removing Soviet-era monuments from the public space was reignited, while debates raged on whether Bulgaria’s Liberation Day should be celebrated on March 3, the day the Bulgarian state was reestablished following the Russo-Turkish war (1877-1878).
Public opinion is not only shifting for former Defence Minister Stefan Yanev, once a military advisor to President Rumen Radev and interim PM in Radev’s caretaker cabinet through the continuous logjam in 2021. President Radev himself, who successfully ran twice as an independent candidate supported by the Bulgarian Socialist Party and in 2021 described the annexed territory of Crimea as Russian, sometimes appears to be soft on Kremlin and skeptical about increased NATO presence in Bulgaria, and in other moments in line with the government’s condemnation of the war.
This creates a fresh division in Bulgaria’s frail stability, reached only after three general elections in 2021. Radev is drifting away from the winning party We Continue the Change, a product of his interim cabinet which launched the political career of current PM Kiril Petkov. And while We Continue the Change, their closest allies Democratic Bulgaria and There’s Such People have clearly condemned the Kremlin's moves, the tone of the fourth element in the wide coalition, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, is much softer. BSP, a successor of the one-time repressive Bulgarian Communist Party, condemned the war but stands against the crippling sanctions over Russia mostly out of fear that they will increase the inflation, but also because Bulgaria is heavily dependent on Russian gas.
We Continue the Change should fight harder for the change
The situation will test the coalition’s unity and relationship with President Radev which appears to be colder than some months ago. According to a recent research by agency Trend, trust in Radev is slightly decreasing - 49 per cent in March, in comparison to 55 per cent in January. However, We Continue the Change are also experiencing some decline in trust as some of their conservative voters might be disappointed by their clear pro-Western stances - 22.9 per cent in comparison to 26.4 in January.
In interviews after his dismissal as a Defence Minister, Stefan Yanev stated that he will start his own political project devoted to “Bulgaria’s best interests” - this was decoded as a sign that his party might play with nationalist overtones and might find a partner in parliament newcomers Vazrazhdane (Revival), the only far-right party in the National Assembly, with a clear pro-Moscow profile. If Yanev’s project collaborates with Revival and former ruling party GERB, known to side with nationalists when extra votes are needed, this might be bad news for Petkov’s cabinet.
Since coming onto the Defence Minister post, Zakov has promised that Bulgaria’s military will be seriously upgraded, with a possible focus on coastal defences. Sending weapons to Ukraine is not in the cards. “We can’t give Ukraine something we don’t have”, Zakov said on March 29, referencing Bulgaria’s limited military capabilities. Some are however critical that Bulgaria is not sending ammunition. On Monday, six former defence ministers asked the government to send weapons to help the Ukrainian army.
Russian ambassador Eleonora Mitrofanova is on the verge of expulsion
After the invasion erupted, protests in front of the Russian embassy in Sofia were quickly organized and Soviet era monuments were defaced (from signs such as “Putin is killer” to painting the hands of the statues of soldiers in bloody red paint).
This has kickstarted an increasingly hostile tone by the embassy, even calling those who support Ukraine “shitbags” in an official statement. Ambassador Eleonora Mitrofanova apologized for the gaffe on March 6 but a few days later told Russian TV channel Rossiya 24: “The majority of the Bulgarian nation is against the anti-Russian rhetoric from the government about the special operation in Ukraine.” In recent days, the embassy’s online statements continued to promote the Kremlin’s narrative and have repeatedly described reports in the Bulgarian media, even in respected outlets, as “fake news”. It has also blamed the destruction of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol on actions by “Ukrainian nationalists”. This time, instead of an apology, she described to local media PM Kiril Petkov as simply a “clerk” to NATO and EU.
Mitrofanova’s statements became a subject of rage and critical comments by those who attended a demonstration in Sofia on March 25. The “evil aunt” is a nickname for Mitrofanova which is becoming increasingly popular with protesters and social media users. “The behavior of the Russian ambassador has crossed all boundaries and it is time for her to leave”, said Democratic Bulgaria member and diplomat Stephan Tafrov during a TV interview. Bulgaria’s ambassador to Russia was recalled for consultations on Tuesday and some are guessing that in an imminent tit-for-that move, Russia will recall Mitrofanova. Some are not sure whether such a sanction will change anything: “It’s not like they’re going to send us Pussy Riot”, as a Twitter user recently remarked.
Through March, ten diplomats suspected of being involved in “activities that were incompatible with their diplomatic status”, were declared personae non grata and left Bulgaria. “We qualify this move as yet another provocation” Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on March 22.
The tensions around Mitrofanova brought more heat on pro-Kremlin far-righters Revival. Party MP Elena Guncheva is currently investigated by the Prosecution after a March 18 Facebook post where she says she’s hopeful “one of the [Russian] rockets will destroy the Ministerial Council” if Bulgaria sends ammunition to Ukraine and “Zelenskyy the clown”. She might faces charges on treachery.
Gas dependency on Russia further complicates former PM Boyko Borissov’s legacy
There’s a lot on the shoulder of former PM and GERB leader Boyko Borissov, who after stepping down from the position of the country’s strongman in early 2021, has been embroiled in claims about corruption, extortion, and money laundering schemes. On March 17, shortly after Kiril Petkov met with European Chief Prosecutor Laura Kövesi over plans for increased collaboration on over 120 cases, Borissov, along with GERB’s spokesperson and former Finance Minister, were detained for 24 hours. All three plan to appeal and were furtherly questioned in the beginning of this week.
Another ticking bomb for Borissov is that although it kept in line with the EU’s politics, his cabinet has done little to none to end Bulgaria’s dependency on Russian natural gas by never enforcing a gas supply agreement that was signed with Baku already back in 2008. The ruling coalition has criticized Borissov for deepening Bulgaria’s dependence during his terms.
The government is so far undecided on future Gazprom deals as a new gas link between Greece and Bulgaria, transferring Azeri resources, will be ready no earlier than mid-summer. For now, Bulgaria remains heavily dependent on Gazprom, but its 10-year contract with the Russian giant expires in 2022. The government is adamant there is a way out of the maze. “The European Commision will negotiate with Gazprom on our behalf”, said Petkov on March 25.
What can be expected from Bulgaria?
The decrease of trust in Kremlin, also shows concern for the events in Ukraine and identification with the Russian opposition, a fashionable new normal in Bulgarian politics. For example, Borissov boldly compared himself to Navalny after his arrest which he framed as political repression. Bulgaria is slowly turning away from its image as a country trying to please both the EU and the Kremlin. Despite most officials widely condemning the invasion and the society standing atypically supportive to refugees, the ideological differences in the wide coalition are becoming more and more apparent. President Rumen Radev and the Bulgarian Socialist Party, the red herring in the predominantly pro-EU government, will have an even harder time in maintaining a balance between the demands for a critical tone to Kremlin and their voter base. For Kiril Petkov, who entered office in a moment when low vaccination rate seemed like the biggest issue, times are testing in a way his party hardly envisaged in the beginning.
