Alexander Malyarenko is an expert in the field of macroeconomic analysis and transformation processes in Eastern Europe. He has been published extensively as the author and co-author of over 20 papers in highly regarded, peer-reviewed journals. He frequently speaks at international conferences and is a regular columnist in leading media outlets in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Belarus. Alexander is an associate member of expert groups and think tanks in Lithuania (BVART) and France (Eastern Circles) focusing on economic development in Eastern Europe.
The easing of US sanctions against Russia does not have a major economic impact, but politically, it sends a poor signal regarding the strength of the transatlantic partnership and the European security arrangements.
Previous three-year plans repeatedly suggested that extraordinary military spending would eventually subside. The new document instead finances a prolonged confrontation with increasingly expensive and inflexible resources.
There are increasing warnings that Moscow might consider attacking a NATO state. The state of the Russian economy and military suggests that, at least for the moment, Russia is incapable of waging a conventional war against NATO. A far more likely scenario is a step up of the hybrid war Russia is waging against the West.
The Russian state is embedding war into the routine of growing up, lowering the threshold of habituation to violence, obedience and the official language of war.
The Baltic countries have already demonstrated their economic independence and competitiveness as members of the European Union. What they are now asked to do is prove their ability to withstand Russia's hybrid attacks.
Ukraine’s bombing campaign behind the frontlines is taking a growing toll on Russia's economy. The Kremlin will soon have to choose between continuing the war, which would entail serious economic losses and a new mobilization, or de-escalating, which would mean giving up some of its demands.