Alexander Malyarenko is an expert in the field of macroeconomic analysis and transformation processes in Eastern Europe. He has been published extensively as the author and co-author of over 20 papers in highly regarded, peer-reviewed journals. He frequently speaks at international conferences and is a regular columnist in leading media outlets in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Belarus. Alexander is an associate member of expert groups and think tanks in Lithuania (BVART) and France (Eastern Circles) focusing on economic development in Eastern Europe.
Russia’s struggle with the open proves that the Kremlin is trying to reorganize everyday life around the logic of security, control and dependence on state-approved infrastructure. The paradox is that this attack is directed against one of the few spheres where Russia had real modernizing potential: its digital economy.
Russia, like other oil-rich countries, saved some of its oil revenues for future generations and stability. After 2022, Moscow started to use the National Wealth Fund to finance a war that creates future instability.
Four years into the war, the EU - Russia trade relationship has been radically reshaped but not extinguished.
Russia invaded Ukraine to bring it back into its orbit. After years of war, the Russians would be content with even gaining some territory. But that would be a Pyrrhic victory, as Russia lacks the resources to effectively rebuild and administer war-torn areas.
Authoritarian regimes flourished by bending or breaking international rules. Once the US started to do the same, autocracies learned that a world without rules is far more dangerous for them than they had imagined.
Iran is important to Moscow for the lessons it has offered as a problem state for the international community and it can offer now, when it is at war with the United States and Israel.