Alexander Malyarenko is an expert in the field of macroeconomic analysis and transformation processes in Eastern Europe. He has been published extensively as the author and co-author of over 20 papers in highly regarded, peer-reviewed journals. He frequently speaks at international conferences and is a regular columnist in leading media outlets in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Belarus. Alexander is an associate member of expert groups and think tanks in Lithuania (BVART) and France (Eastern Circles) focusing on economic development in Eastern Europe.
Russia invaded Ukraine to bring it back into its orbit. After years of war, the Russians would be content with even gaining some territory. But that would be a Pyrrhic victory, as Russia lacks the resources to effectively rebuild and administer war-torn areas.
Authoritarian regimes flourished by bending or breaking international rules. Once the US started to do the same, autocracies learned that a world without rules is far more dangerous for them than they had imagined.
Iran is important to Moscow for the lessons it has offered as a problem state for the international community and it can offer now, when it is at war with the United States and Israel.
Over the past four years, Russia's economy has been reoriented to support the war effort and, for a time, seemed able to withstand sanctions. But now Moscow is facing economic stagnation as its financial reserves continue to dwindle.
Russia has grand plans for the Arctic and the world's largest fleet of icebreakers to see them through. However, Moscow lacks the funds to implement its strategy, while its fleet is rapidly aging.
Russia’s failure to provide security or reliable partnership has led local leaders to seek alternatives. Moscow is losing the role of default arbiter, while Turkey, the EU, the United States, and increasingly China fill the space.