Journalist of Belsat TV, analyst in the sphere of national security and defence. Specialises in information warfare, propaganda, psychological operations as well as in international politics. Studies the tactics of modern warfare.
2026 marked the intensification of the Kremlin’s hybrid aggression against the Baltic states. Provocations against politicians and civil activists, mass attempts of illegal migration, organisation of pro-Russian political movements – these are only some of the tools used by the Kremlin to destabilise the Baltics.
Russia’s most loyal ally, Belarus, is taking part in hybrid operations against the Baltic states, pushing migrants towards their borders, recruiting spies, and promoting propaganda narratives. Will Alexander Lukashenko be willing to drag his country in a Russian military operation in the region?
Ukraine has hardened its stance towards Belarus' authoritarian leader, after years of trying not to irritate him too much, lest he drag his country into war. Now Kiev is tightening ties with the opposition led by Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya while warning Alexander Lukashenko that in the event of an escalation, Ukrainian drones are ready to strike.
In 2021, the Belarusian KGB forced a European plane to land in Minsk to arrest journalist Roman Protasevich. In 2026, Protasevich is one of the Lukashenko regime's propagandists.
Russian manipulation, security concerns, and pressure from some Lithuanian businesses may have all played a role in the relocation of Belarus’ opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, to Belarus.
Hundreds of Belarusian companies support Russia's war effort, supplying it with, among other things, shells, drones, chassis for military vehicles, and components imported from the West.
Elections in Belarus were anything but free, with no opposition candidates or independent observers, and a government disinformation campaign designed to instill fear. The opposition managed, nonetheless, to get its message to at least part of the electorate, and in spite governmental efforts, turnout was lower than expected.
A new “Axis of Evil” is already being formally institutionalized: Russia’s allies in its efforts to revise the global security system and the established borders of states around the world, while expanding its sphere of direct control at least to the level of the Stalin era, for which the entire Moscow establishment so openly longs.
Moscow is making its position clear: it has no intention of engaging in constructive dialogue with the West, remains convinced of its own strength, and is prepared for further escalation. The goal is to replace the existing system of international law with Russian diktat, justified by its “strategic interests” – something a Kremlin official has now openly stated in the pages of an official SVR publication.
Firstly, it is obvious that what worries the Kremlin most is Ukraine obtaining permission and licenses from the UK and France to establish domestic production of long-range Storm Shadow / SCALP cruise missiles, which pose a threat to the rear of the Russian occupation forces. Secondly, through such statements, Moscow is demonstrating its complete unwillingness to engage in any negotiations aimed at ending the conflict – its sole objective is the complete dismantling of Ukrainian statehood.
The Kremlin has prepared an advance justification for its arms supplies to criminal groups, predictably shifting the blame onto the West and Ukraine.
Faced with battlefield setbacks and repeated failures to protect critical infrastructure deep inside Russia, Kremlin generals have increasingly resorted to self-congratulatory and reassuring rhetoric.
During his speech at the International Security Forum, Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) chief Sergey Naryshkin threatened the use of nuclear weapons, spoke about plans for a war against Europe, and voiced the Kremlin's fears.