Rafał Trzaskowski had a platform. Karol Nawrocki had a plan to win. What do the 2025 elections reveal about Poland’s psyche, why did Trzaskowski lose, and what might Nawrocki’s presidency portend for Warsaw’s relations with the EU, Ukraine, and Washington?
The real winner of Poland’s presidential elections: Jarosław Kaczyński
Had this been written in the hours after the votes were tallied, it might have sounded glib or premature. But now, with the dust settled, the verdict is clear: the true victor of Poland’s presidential election is Jarosław Kaczyński. Not Karol Nawrocki – the man officially elected – but the long-standing PiS leader who once more demonstrated a political instinct most had dismissed, including some within his own camp. Against conventional logic and despite dissent from his circle, he handpicked a controversial, relatively unknown candidate – and won.
To many, Nawrocki seemed a Hail Mary: a political novice, untested and obscure, his resume shadowed by allegations and errant past behaviors. The final weeks of the campaign were a slow leak of damaging disclosures. Onet.pl spoke with former co-workers from his security guard days at Sopot’s Grand Hotel, who recalled his role in arranging escorts for clientele. Around the same time, Nawrocki raised eyebrows on a YouTube appearance with Sławomir Mentzen, an ultra-right Konfederacja leader who claimed 15% of vote in the first round of the presidential elections. "I’ve had a lot of noble, manly hand-to-hand combat in my life," Nawrocki declared. He admitted involvement in mass hooligan brawls, including a notorious 2009 clash between Lechia Gdańsk and Lech Poznań football supporters. Wirtualna Polska confirmed he had indeed been present at that melee – fists weren't the only weapons used. Prosecutor Łukasz Biela, who investigated the incident, noted that some Lechia Gdańsk hooligans were armed criminals. Among them: the man now elected President.
Public reaction was predictably split. For some, these revelations were disqualifying; for others, they burnished his reputation. Nawrocki became a kind of folk hero, his chaotic youth recast as fearless authenticity. In the end, 10,606,877 Poles cast ballots for him – fewer than 370,000 more than Trzaskowski received.
Anti-System, Pro-Change
Had Nawrocki lost, the fallout would have landed squarely on Kaczyński’s shoulders. PiS might have fractured, perhaps fatally. Instead, the party exits this battle revitalized. The result also marks a failure for Donald Tusk. His government could not conjure the aura of competence or cohesion, and it notably failed to communicate its achievements. Particularly with younger voters, the government’s political messaging was nearly nonexistent. The result: Nawrocki prevailed decisively among the young. In the 18–29 demographic, he drew 53.2%; among 30–39-year-olds, 54%.
“Young voters are both anti-system and desperate for systemic change,” said Dr. Kinga Wojtas-Jarentowska, a political scientist. “They see the state as either absent or oppressive, not a source of real support.”
On Monday, June 2, Prime Minister Tusk addressed the nation: “I want everyone to see, including our opponents, at home and abroad, that we are ready for this situation, that we understand the gravity of the moment, but that we do not intend to take a step back. To all those who voted for Rafał Trzaskowski: let us go further.”
Kaczyński, meanwhile, issued his own missive moments earlier – calling for Tusk’s resignation and the establishment of a technical government until the 2027 parliamentary elections.
Stalemate Ahead
When Karol Nawrocki moves into the Presidential Palace in August, he will carry not just a democratic mandate but the weight of Kaczyński’s expectations – and a mission: paralyze Tusk’s government. PiS, Konfederacja figures like Mentzen, and Nawrocki himself will now seek to trigger early parliamentary elections, likely igniting a new era of legislative dysfunction.
As president, Nawrocki is poised to veto progressive initiatives – civil partnerships, liberalized abortion laws, and justice reform – unless aligned with PiS's vision. His tenure also signals a foreign-policy pivot: anti-Brussels, pro-Trump, and deeply skeptical of Ukraine. He views Kyiv as incompatible with NATO, and seems far more at ease with Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico than with Friedrich Merz or Emmanuel Macron. Finally, there will be an effort to sideline the government in dealings with Donald Trump, who shares far greater affinity with the new occupant of the Presidential Palace than with Prime Minister Tusk.
The presidential election underscores a brutal truth: Poland is split cleanly in two, its political and social blocs locked in a near-perfect deadlock. Karol Nawrocki’s ascent signals a period of profound instability, with consequences that may reach well beyond the domestic sphere. These are not abstract or theoretical risks – we live in an age of tangible threats, when unity is more than a virtue; it is a necessity. No adversary dares strike a divided America. But a fractured Poland? That is a far easier target.
