In March, 2014, the so called “little green men”, Russian combatants without any identifying army insignia, occupied this Ukrainian peninsula. A referendum followed shortly on joining the Russian Federation, which the international community didn’t recognize. On March 21, 2014, president Vladimir Putin signed the law that officially declared Crimea part of the Russian Federation. The events of 7 years ago are today perceived differently in Ukraine and Russia.
Squeezed between its own regional ambitions and those of global players, between domestic challenges and its own policy errors, the current regime in Ankara speaks and acts in an increasingly erratic manner. And the consequences are difficult to foresee at this stage.
Facing logistics-related problems back at home and a limited capacity for the development of the Sputnik V vaccine, Russia plays a bluff game in Europe, pretending to be waiting for the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to greenlight the Sputnik serum in order to fill the vacuum in the EU’s supply chain.
The government has failed to handle the COVID-19 pandemic on several levels and it seems like no lessons have been learned during the last year. All of this, right before the country votes for a new parliament.
China is the top of America’s concerns, considering the ongoing trade war and Beijing’s bold moves in an area where the United States has strategic interests and close allies. After holding its first exploratory talks with Russia, European allies and the Middle East, in March the White House set its gaze on China and dispatched two of its heavy-duty emissaries to this region.
Many Serbs do feel sympathetic towards Russia – after all, it’s the major power that has been constantly backing their claim over Kosovo – and their leaders often steer the media towards a negative coverage of the EU. However, most Serbs want their country to join the EU, and so do their leaders and the relevant political parties.
The failure of pro-Russian Igor Dodon in the presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova does not seem to have upset the Kremlin much: instead of being reprimanded, the officer in charge of the Moldovan case (and assisting Dodon in the election campaign) was promoted in early March. At first glance, the promotion seems to be a job rotation decision, but in reality, it’s part of a broader reorganization of the departments dealing with the former Soviet space and the separatist regions supported by Moscow.
The massive disinformation campaign carried by Moscow in the West, in the former satellites of the Soviet Empire and also on its own territory, has its Achille’s heel: it is limited to a number of themes or narratives.
For the first time in history, a Pope has visited Iraq, the very place where the Bible tells us the world began, following in the footsteps of the patriarchs and prophets of the Old Testament. Steeped in symbolism and emotion, the visit was a landmark of historic consequence through its sheer novelty. The question is – will it truly make a difference?
Eversince the pandemic started in early 2020, Russia saw a window of opportunity to gain tactical advantages. While the West was overwhelmed by the medical crisis and was attempting to stop the spread of the Virus, Moscow was using official and informal channels to undermine its credibility.
There is a discrepancy between the Western estimates, according to which there were hundreds of thousands of rape victims, and the Russian ones, where figures are in the order of tens. But let’s see the arguments of each side of the dispute.
February 25 marked the first military operation ordered by president Joe Biden. US forces bombed targets in Syria used by Iran-led militias. The airstrike has brought back in the limelight a nearly forgotten war, recalling the complexity of this conflict with regional ramifications.
The political stage in Chișinău is once again in crisis. The incompatibility between the pro-European president Maia Sandu and her governing opponents, from the camp of the corrupt pro-Russia “establishment” in Chișinău, has led to new confrontations and situations hard to anticipate.
The Party of Socialists in the Republic of Moldova has abandoned plans to make the Republic of Moldova a Federation, reverting instead to a 25-year-old document that proposes the creation of a confederation as a solution to the Transnistrian conflict, by setting Chișinău on an equal footing with Tiraspol.
Speculations on the historical memory are becoming Russia's primary weapon in the hybrid confrontation with European countries. They are directed at EU members as well as the Eastern Partnership countries.
The most effective type of Chinese overseas propaganda is not the one Beijing has carefully planned, but that which appears spontaneously when a distant civilization speaking a language few European understand comes into contact with Europe’s tendency to create mythologies about “the Orient”. In other words, it’s a byproduct of “Orientalism”. Present-day China has replaced 1970s Japan as “the country that does things differently” and is about to outshine the old democracies.
The first steps taken by the Biden administration in the Middle East mark significant changes as compared to the Trump era. The key allies to whom Trump had given a free hand in the region are now given a cold shoulder, while at the same time opening the gate towards a resumption of dialogue with Iran. It remains to be seen, though, how deep these changes are going to be or how long they will take.
Ever since the appearance of the Internet and the advancement of the World Wide Web, in the 1990s, it was generally thought that they would decisively contribute to the global democratisation of information. And this they initially did, the demos all over the world gaining unprecedented access to an immense variety of information in all fields of human thinking and action. However, governments and inter-governmental organisations also entered this digital arena and their first instinct was to try to control it.
Transnistria is an important stake for some politicians in Chisinau, but not because they're interested In achieving Moldova’s grand national objective – reunification. They’re rather interested in the thousands of votes they could get from Transnistria. However, those votes come in exchange for concessions for the breakaway region.
Poland is following the path marked out by Hungary and its Prime minister. After subjugating the Constitutional Tribunal and the Supreme Court to itself, the nationalist government of Law and Justice (PiS) party started to ruthlessly choke independent news organizations and restrict freedom of speech. Soon, the media mogul Tadeusz Rydzyk may become the most important unelected man in Poland and the strongest player on the media market, apart from the public broadcaster. He is a priest, businessman and close friend of many right-wing politicians.
Bulgaria’s ecological problems are piling up just as EU funds aimed at addressing them continue to flow in. It’s a deepening crisis that could be interpreted as a “litmus test” on how the current political elite is (not) taking the seriousness of the country’s situation.
The Libyans who took to the streets on February 17, 2011 had been called to a "day of rage." A little later, the revolt against Muammar Gaddafi - who at the time was the longest-lived but also the most eccentric tyrant in the Arab world - would be called the "February 17 Revolution." In retrospect, that is the time when the Arab Spring turned into the great war for the Arab world.
What makes Serbia interesting to anaylze when it comes to Russia's influence is the already formed pro-Russian public opinion. Therefore, the question arises whether Russia in Serbia has a need to invest in strengthening its influence when public opinion is already in its favor. It is enough to look at the cover pages of the Serbian daily press where you can often see Vladimir Putin, as well as the media reporting on Russia so you can get the impression that the pro-Russian narrative is possibly created by Serbian journalists and editors. It means that pro-Russian narrative is not sponsored or created by Kremlin.
The EU has extended an economic lifeline to Transnistria, the underlying idea being that this would help avoid conflict in that region. Russia is no longer Transnistria's main economic partner, but still has considerable levarage in the region.
During the visit to Moscow of the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, a visit marked by quite a few controversial moments, Russia announced the expulsion of three EU diplomats in an act of public shaming that has infuriated many people.
Transnistria a reprezentat în ultimele trei decenii una dintre cele mai mari enigme din Europa de Est și continuă să fie un studiu de caz aparte, fiind unul dintre primele conflicte înghețate din spațiul ex-sovietic și apoi un model pentru cele ce au urmat în jurul bazinului Mării Negre.
On January 26, Joe Biden spoke for the first time with Vladimir Putin as President of the United States. The two had known each other for years, but their conversation does not seem to have been a discussion between two friends meeting again, or an exchange of pleasantries between the heads of two states who want to make a first contact and test the waters.
Perdant în recentele alegeri prezidențiale din această toamnă, Igor Dodon încă se agață de putere în interiorul Partidului Socialiștilor din Moldova (PSRM), dar și în fața susținătorilor săi externi de la Kremlin.
The results of the US presidential election are forcing Russia to focus on its own hybrid efforts in the EU. Only there does Russia have a prospect of success. Only in the EU there is room for active maneuvers and a powerful pro-Russian lobby.
The option for China is connected to Belgrade domestic and foreign policy objectives. As it seeks to show that it has an alternative to the West, Belgrade has chosen the more relevant power, which is on the rise, unlike a Russia marked by isolation and crisis. China, in its turn, is interested to have bridge help that would gain it backdoor access to the European markets.
The more hybrid our reality gets, the more hybrid warfare becomes. The statement is Russia’s latest informal creed, underlying a disproportionate war waged abroad. For that, the country has been using a “no man’s army”, and its best-known avatar is the Wagner Group.
In November 2020, the Turkish government has started to spread a narrative of return to democracy, rule of law and citizens' rights. The main reason for this new apparent U-turn is the degradation of the Turkish economy and, in effect, the diminishing popularity of the regime.
