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Republica Moldova a intrat în ultimele săptămâni sub o mare presiune din partea Ucrainei. Kievul cere tot mai insistent măsuri din partea Chișinăului pentru ca acest stat să se ralieze campaniei internaționale de sancționare a Rusiei în plan economic. Republica Moldova nu a dorit să impună astfel de sancțiuni Moscovei din rațiuni economice și de dependență față de Rusia pe zona securității energetice.
In recent weeks, the Republic of Moldova has seen increasing pressure from Ukraine. Kyiv is persistently calling on Chișinău to take measures in order to rally itself to the international sanctions imposed on Russia. Such a move would be however irrelevant in economic terms, and wouldn’t represent such a strong signal not even at political level. Instead, it could cause bigger troubles for the pro-European government, which is struggling with crises on multiple fronts right now: energy, economy, humanitarian and even medical, if we take into account the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet over.
Ukraine’s Ambassador in Chișinău, Marko Shevchenko last week told NewsMaker.md that he respects the Republic of Moldova’s position of neutrality with respect to the war in Ukraine, but that the latter wants to know clearly the point “where neutrality ends and assisting the enemy beings”.
“The aggressor state, which is now subject to severe international sanctions, is greatly interested in using neutral platforms, for instance to withdraw or elude some of its sanctions targeting it. We are talking about financial flows, smuggling of products and critical materials, the free movement of citizens targeted by sanctions and using forged documents. Let us recall the case of Russian saboteurs Petrov and Bashirov [GRU agents]. One of them had used a fake Moldovan passport under the name of Nicolae Popa. Let us also recall the Laundromat. More specifically, there are well-established connections here between people and economic agents who were all involved”, Marko Shevchenko went on to say.
The references speak of two GRU agents who conducted sabotage missions and hits in Europe and who were using Moldovan IDs, as well as the Russian laundromat affair, whereby over 20 billion USD were laundered in the Republic of Moldova out of the total of 80 billion USD the Russians had laundered all over the world.
The Republic of Moldova has in recent years served as a platform, much like Ukraine, for Russia to achieve its goals at a number of levels, in both economic and political terms. For that matter, the Transnistrian oligarchs that own the Sheriff holding – Viktor Gushan and Ilya Kazmalyi – are also Ukrainian citizens and for decades they have been well-connected to economic and smuggling operations in the port of Odessa.
What would imposing sanctions against Russia entail: zero benefits, additional risks
Kyiv’s veiled pressure on the Republic of Moldova to impose economic sanctions of its own against Russia is very hard to justify. All the more so as the value of two-way trade between Moldova and Russia is insignificant as a result of the economic embargo Moscow imposed on Chișinău ever since 2013.
Moldova’s exports to Russia, even before the launch of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, stood at a mere 8.8%. Russia barely ranks 3rd, after Romania and Turkey, as a destination of Moldovan exports.
On the other hand, the Republic of Moldova is 100% reliant on Russian gas imported from Gazprom. Upsetting Moscow with sanctions that are largely ineffective would possibly cause the interruption of Russian gas deliveries to Moldova. Such a scenario would cause great difficulties for Chișinău in times of crisis, when the government is also trying to implement overarching reforms.
“We will not allow Russia to avoid sanctions using our banking system, this is out of the question. In terms of exports, we will not allow goods to be re-exported via the Republic of Moldova, and we are monitoring such risks. Our only link to the Russian Federation is our natural gas contract, and we will see what becomes of it. The Republic of Moldova is making a lot of efforts to help Ukrainian refugees, it has provided the Ukrainian army with military engineers, and we will see if they can be of service, since there is still a risk the Russian army mined the towns and villages it withdrew from. We are hosting 100,000 refugees, accounting for 4% for the Republic’s population”, president Maia Sandu on Monday told a press briefing.
Furthermore, Russian gas is also used at the thermal-electric power plant Moldgres on the left-hand side of the Dniester. The plant’s output accounts for Moldova’s near total electricity consumption. In other words, if Russia turns off the gas, Moldova would be left cold and dark.
“We are enjoying our Western partners’ full support. They are trying to help us come up with alternatives, and if we can’t find any, of course we won’t be able to ignore reality”, Maia Sandu said in an interview to Europa Liberă.
A new Russian-Ukrainian front in Transnistria?
Ever since Russia started the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities have been constantly signaling a mobilization in the separatist region of Transnistria, an information that Chișinău authorities have dismissed so far.
At military level, there is a minimum dialogue for cooperation between Kyiv and Chișinău, although Kyiv certainly wants, now more than ever, to settle the Transnistrian conflict. In the logic of the war, considering the Russians are pressing their artillery fire on Odessa, we will probably witness an increase in the number of statements made by Ukrainian military officials with respect to the separatist region in the east of Moldova. The most recent warning made by the Ukrainian side with respect to the movement of troops and possible military provocations coming from Transnistria came at the end of last week.
Moreover, Ukraine’s ambassador in Chișinău, Marko Shevchenko, didn’t deny Kyiv’s concern with this topic.
“The logic of military confrontation is the following: to weaken the attack, you need to spread out the enemy’s forces. This is why Russia attacked Ukraine from three sides – from the south, from the east and from the north. And it’s also why, every now and then, the occasional report speaks of an offensive possible starting from Transnistria, from the west as well. And according to the same logic, we should take into account the declaration of Ukraine’s National Security Council. Last week, Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, called on the Republic of Moldova to open a second front of military operations in Transnistria in order to draw Russia away from Ukraine”, Shevchenko said.
Such statements play well into the agenda of pro-Russian Socialists in Chișinău, who have long been insisting on passing an organic law in Parliament declaring Moldova’s neutrality, although this is clearly stipulated in the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova, which makes the law useless.
Referring to Danilov’s statements, Ukraine’s ambassador in Chișinău, Marko Shevchenko said Russia is changing its military plans for Ukraine on the go and that any scenario stands.
“Again, we’ve seen [Russia’s’] plans change at least twice now. At first, everyone assumed Transnistria would start to play an important part the moment Russian troops were closing in on Odessa. This has been confirmed from Ukrainian sources. It’s hard to say what role Transnistria will play in case the current circumstances change”, the Ukrainian official said.
Ambassador Shevchenko pointed out that should Transnistria get involved in the war, it would be consequential.
“There is a limited number of Russian troops on the ground, which report directly to Russian high command. Before the war, they reported to the Western Military District. Troops that are part of this district are now fighting in Ukraine. Which means there is probably a small number of Russian troops in Transnistria that report to the commanding structure that is coordinating the attack in Ukraine. They can be given orders at any time. There are also peacekeeping forces on the ground, which also report to Russian high command. There is also an army of the so-called Republic of Transnistria”, Shevchenko went on to say.
The Ukrainian diplomat explained that Kyiv’s position with respect to Transnistria will be largely determined by the possibility the Ukrainian army engages any Russian troops deployed to the territory of the separatist republic
“I have no doubts the Ukrainian army has already prepared a response. I don’t know if it will come to putting it in action”, the Ukrainian ambassador said.
Therefore, the Republic of Moldova is in no position to impose sanctions against Russia, but indeed it can remain vigilant with respect to any attempt from Russia to move onto its own territory. As regards the separatist region of Transnistria, Ukraine has already prepared a number of scenarios, in case Russia decides to attack from this separatist region of the Republic of Moldova.
In this case, chances are the Transnistrian conflict might be settled in military terms not by Moldova, but with the involvement of Ukraine. This is the message stemming from Ukrainian diplomacy, and Chișinău will have to be ready including for this type of military solution.
