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Găgăuzia, the pressure point Moscow will use to block Moldova's EU accession

Newly elected head of Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia (ATUG) Evghenia Gutul (C) speaks to media after her official innuaguration ceremony in Comrat, Moldova, 19 July 2023.
© EPA-EFE/DUMITRU DORU   |   Newly elected head of Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia (ATUG) Evghenia Gutul (C) speaks to media after her official innuaguration ceremony in Comrat, Moldova, 19 July 2023.

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The administration of the autonomous territorial unit of Găgăuzia in the south of the Republic of Moldova seems to be the latest instrument Russia will use to hinder the European accession of the Republic of Moldova.

Comrat makes separatist threats, accompanied by the same narratives as 30 years ago

The administration in Comrat, the capital of this autonomous region, reiterates the same narratives in the dispute with the central authorities in Chișinău as it did over 30 years ago. The list includes, for instance, the Moldovenist theory, according to which Moldovans and Romanians are two different ethnic groups, or the one concerning the existence of a so-called unionist threat that the pro-Russian forces in the Republic of Moldova invoked every time Chișinău tried to drift away from Moscow's orbit.

During a recent visit to Moscow, where she had a meeting with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, the governor of the Găgăuz region, Evghenia Guțul, threatened this region could break away with the Republic of Moldova in the event Moldova unites with Romania.

“If the current power in the Republic of Moldova pursues the path to ​​union, the Găgăuz autonomous region will not remain silent. [...] Any unionist initiative will entail the immediate launch of the procedure for the separation of Găgăuzia and the return to the independent Găgăuz Republic [which the Găgăuz leaders proclaimed in the early 90s]. I am sure the inhabitants of many neighboring villages inhabited by Bulgarians and Moldovans will join us [...]”, Evghenia Guțul said.

In fact, this statement by Evghenia Guțul was addressed to the Romanian Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolacu, who had told an interview for dcnews.ro that he also supports the union of the Republic of Moldova with Romania. His statement was, however, taken out of context and reinterpreted. In the interview, Marcel Ciolacu rhetorically asked why the president of AUR, George Simion, is banned from entering Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova.

“I also support the union and I did not receive a ban. It's my right! I still believe in the union between the Republic of Moldova and Romania, that it will be accomplished within the EU, that we will find [another way]... The Republic of Moldova is sustainable owing to Romania's help. It’s the truth. Romanians live in the Republic of Moldova, like me. It’s a historical injustice. I cannot change the past, and the present is a reflection of the past. What I can do, with your help, is build for the future”, Marcel Ciolacu said in the aforementioned interview.

Evghenia Guțul reminded Marcel Ciolacu that, when he refers to Romanians living in the Republic of Moldova, he forgets that “Moldovans, Russians, and Găgăuz” also live here. She emphasized that Găgăuzia is not called the “anchor of Moldova's independence” for nothing.

“We are true patriots of the Republic of Moldova and we will continue to defend its sovereignty, as well as the competences of our region”, Evghenia Guțul argued.

Russia, depicted as the savior of the Găgăuz

During the aforementioned visit to Moscow, Evghenia Guțul said that Russia supports the residents of the Găgăuzia region and thus “saves” the Găgăuz people.

The facilities offered to Găgăuz exporters, gas discounts and access to the infrastructure of Russian payments will help “overcome the economic blockade established by Chișinău and provide Găgăuzia with the necessary funds to finance our social, infrastructure and economic projects”.

It should be noted that the facilities Evghenia Guțul mentioned existed only at declarative level and have not materialized so far.

Evghenia Guțul also promised pensioners and public sector workers in Găgăuzia that, starting May 1, they will receive 2,000 Moldovan lei (approximately 100 EUR) each on MIR-type accounts opened by the “Promsviazbank” bank in the Russian Federation. In fact, we’re talking about a bank on the brink of bankruptcy, and a new initiative doomed to fail on the territory of the Republic of Moldova.

According to the National Bank of Moldova, cards using the Russian MIR payment system cannot be used in the Republic of Moldova. “Operations using such a card payment system can only be carried out after obtaining authorization from the National Bank, which has not issued such an authorization”, the Central Bank made clear.

In response to Evghenia Guțul’s promises, the spokesperson of the Chișinău Government, Daniel Vodă, said these are all “circulated deceptions”, but also “a design to create media opportunities”.

"The Shor criminal group has delivered nothing but empty promises and headlines [...]”, Daniel Vodă said.

Evghenia Guțul is a close associate of the wanted oligarch Ilan Shor, sentenced in absentia in the Republic of Moldova to 15 years in prison for embezzling at least one billion USD from the Moldovan banking system. The leader of the former Shor Party outlawed in 2023, Ilan Shor seems to have currently taken shelter in Moscow.

In fact, Chișinău allocates the largest budget share per capita to the Găgăuz region

In fact, it is not Moscow, as Evghenia Guțul claims, but Chișinău and its Western partners that invest the largest amounts in the development of the Găgăuz region. In a recent interview for the Nokta.md news portal, president Maia Sandu said that, although it does not contribute to the state budget of the Republic of Moldova, by virtue of the facilities it has as an autonomous region, the Găgăuz region benefits from the largest budget allocation per capita.

“Currently, Găgăuzia does not pay a single coin to the state budget. Not one. All other regions contribute to the budget structure, but all the money accumulated in the region remains in Găgăuzia. On the contrary, special destination transfers are made from the state budget [...]. Găgăuzia receives these transfers through various development programs. [...] It is not right when the politicians from Găgăuzia avoid talking about this and, on the contrary, claim that Chișinău wants to ignore them and that it won’t invest in the region. Currently, per capita budget allocations to the region are higher than in other regions, including Chișinău, where most economic agents are clustered. On the one hand, the money is there, on the other hand, people must enquire how local politicians are spending this money”, Maia Sandu pointed out.

During a recent visit to Comrat, the Moldovan president said that “those who are trying to sow discord and destabilize the autonomous region and the country” have only one goal in mind – to bring the corrupt groups back in power.

Tensions between Chișinău and Comrat intensified with the approach of the pro-European referendum

Political analyst Ion Tăbârță draws attention to the fact that tensions between the central authorities in Chișinău and the administration of the autonomous region of Găgăuzia have intensified not only with the approach of the presidential elections, but especially of the referendum for the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union which is to take place this fall, and Russia is the one feeding these tensions using Ilan Shor as proxy.

“They are trying to use Găgăuzia against the Republic of Moldova and against the current pro-European administration in Chișinău. The Russian Federation uses the Găgăuz ethnicity in a cynical and populist manner to serve its geopolitical games. Evghenia Guțul is just a pawn on a geopolitical chessboard. I think the relevant judicial institutions must analyze what Mrs. Guțul says, in addition to the other politicians in the region, and decide whether or not these statements fall under the separatism law, whether or not the constitutional norms with reference to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova are violated. Chișinău must act firmly, but also calmly, in order to stamp out any separatist tendencies and attempts to destabilize the social and political context in the Republic of Moldova”, Ion Tăbârță argues.

Did Russia replace Transnistria with the Găgăuz region to destabilize the Republic of Moldova?

Another political commentator, Vladimir Socor with the Jamestown Foundation, believes that Transnistria, which Chișinău authorities no longer control since the Dniester war in 1992, is no longer the pro-Russian region that would destabilize the Republic of Moldova. This role was taken over by the Comrat administration, because Tiraspol wants stability so that the owners of the Sheriff company, which controls the Transnistrian region, can pursue their business interests undisturbed.

In the opinion of Vladimir Socor, the visits to Moscow of pro-Russian parties from the Republic of Moldova mean that Putin wants to seat them at the same table and identify a common candidate for the presidential election due this autumn in the Republic of Moldova, concurrently with the pro-European referendum.

Vladimir Socor believes that Russia's policies regarding the Republic of Moldova have lately radicalized.

"Before the war in Ukraine, Russia did not seek to control the Republic of Moldova. It wanted to dominate the system by blocking various initiatives. [...] Russia wanted to keep the Republic of Moldova in the gray zone, with unstable coalition governments from all across the political spectrum. Meanwhile, authorities leaning towards the European Union came to power in the Republic of Moldova. [...] Russia currently wants to get full control of the Republic of Moldova”, the analyst emphasized.

The Găgăuz are an ethnic group of Turkish origin, but of the Christian-Orthodox faith who were brought to settle in southern Bessarabia by the Tsarist administration, after the annexation of this province by the Russian Empire in 1812. They live clustered in this region to this day.

In 1990, when the movement for the national liberation of the Bessarabian Romanians was at its peak, two separatist entities emerged on the territory of the Republic of Moldova (at the time the Soviet Socialist Republic of Moldova), both with Moscow’s direct contribution - the Transnistrian Republic and the Găgăuz Republic. Whereas Russian-backed Transnistria definitively broke away with Chișinău following the Dniester war in 1992, the Găgăuz region renounced its separatist claims, instead obtaining in 1994 the status of an autonomous territorial unit within the Republic of Moldova.

This autonomy seems to be used by the current local Comrat administration to once again uphold Russia’s plans for Chișinău, just as it did over 30 years ago.

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Corneliu Rusnac

Corneliu Rusnac




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