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Political parties that have traditionally defended the interests of the Russian-speaking minority in Estonia are gradually losing their positions. At the same time, the authorities are trying to exert pressure on the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to bring it out from under Moscow's influence.
A coup at the top of Talinn’s city government
An internal split in the Centre Party led to the exodus of Estonian politicians from it, which allowed for a coup in the capital's city council. The Centrists, who had been in control of the capital for many years, suffered another devastating blow and lost control of Tallinn a year and a half before the municipal elections.
The former mayor of the capital, Russian-speaking Mikhail Kõlvart, was given a vote of no confidence, prompted by a guilty verdict in a high-profile corruption case. Several years ago, the general secretary of the Centre Party, Mikhail Korb, accepted a donation from businessman Hillar Teder, who thus tried to influence the decisions of the city authorities and gain benefits for the Porto Franco development project. The businessman, the former general secretary, and the party itself were brought to trial. In the first instance, they were acquitted, but in mid-March, the district court found Korb, Teder, and the Centre Party guilty of influence peddling.
The Mayor of Tallinn was not charged in the case, but at the moment he heads the party found guilty, which will have to pay 750,000 euros into the state treasury, unless it can win in the Supreme Court. This amount, although it will not bankrupt the political organization, will significantly complicate its financial situation.
Opponents of the Centrists, including former members who lost the internal party struggle and recently left the party, skillfully used the situation. They managed to carry out a change of power in the city administration after they accused the Centrists of corruption and they managed to lure their Social Democrats allies to their side.
"In this case, we are dealing with a palace coup, not very related to the opinion of the electorate, because we know that in the city, the Centrists still have quite a lot of support", political commentator Elkond Libman told Veridica. According to him, the guilty verdict in the corruption case served as a kind of trigger, although attempts to oust the mayor were made earlier. "But here the most dangerous thing happened for the Tallinn authorities – their coalition allies wavered. Although the Centre Party, of course, played first fiddle there, the Social Democrats gave them the necessary votes. And after the party was sentenced, they joined the vote of no confidence", he states.
The Social Democrats took advantage of Kõlvart’s removal, as one of them – Yevgeny Ossinovsky, son of a major Russian-speaking businessman, who previously held the posts of Minister of Health, Minister of Labor, and head of the Tallinn City Council – became the new mayor. His election was preceded by difficult negotiations with the right-wing parties, which initiated the new coalition – Fatherland, the Reform Party, and Estonia 200.
Attempts to deprive Russians in Estonia of the right to vote
The problem for the Social Democrats was that all these right-wing parties advocate for depriving part of the population of the right to vote in municipal elections. This refers to Russian and Belarusian citizens permanently residing in Estonia, tens of thousands of whom are often viewed as a potential security threat in light of the war in Ukraine. Many of them have traditionally been Centrist voters, ensuring stability of power for the party in the capital and the border town of Narva. Excluding this segment of the electorate from the voting process would automatically give an advantage to a potential right-wing coalition. It is not surprising that in recent months, right-wing politicians have actively lobbied this issue, citing national security threats.
The Social Democrats found themselves in a difficult position: on the one hand, they are part of the ruling coalition with right-wing parties; on the other hand, ideologically they are closer to the Centrists. Moreover, the Social Democrats partly rely on the Russian-speaking electorate, and the party still has its own organization of Russian-speaking politicians. Depriving Russian citizens of the right to vote also contradicts the views of the Social Democrats.
According to the recently published Integration Monitoring, one of whose authors is sociologist Marju Lauristin—a prominent former politician and chairman of the Social Democratic Party—depriving the right to vote, among other things, has no objective basis. As Estonian sociologists claim based on the results of a large-scale study, loyalty to the state is not linked to a person’s citizenship—in fact, often the level of distrust in state institutions is higher among Estonian citizens than among local Russian citizens, including those who do not speak Estonian.
Thus, the Social Democrats could not agree with the plans to deprive non-citizens of the right to vote, which were actively promoted by both the "Fatherland" party and the Reform Party. Paradoxically, this issue sounded like one of the central ones during the Tallinn coalition negotiations, although it is clear that it cannot be resolved at the municipal level and until recently it was assumed that it would require an amendment to the Constitution. At the same time, the discussion on this topic allowed "Fatherland" to stay in the center of public attention for longer, thus further increase its rating: it is currently leading in Estonian opinion polls with 28%.
The situation for the Social Democrats does not look that good, despite having gained the mayor’s seat. This seat is very unstable: currently, the coalition and the opposition in Tallinn have approximately an equal number of votes. Just a few days after the election, the opposition announced that it intended to file a no confidence motion against the new mayor, Yevgeny Ossinovsky. The reason is that the vote that made him mayor, according to the opposition, was not secret: the ballots were marked in such a way that it was clear how everyone in the party voted. Considering that the mayor was elected with the help of defectors from the Centrists, from the perspective of the losers, this looked questionable. Moreover, concerns about breaking the secrecy of voting were expressed not only by Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise, but also by one of the authors of the Estonian Constitution, Liia Hänni.
The Russian-speaking politicians of the Centre Party also have reason to reflect: the victory within the party cost them the loss of real power – and in areas where until recently they had been monopolists.
Will Estonia declare Russia’s Orthodox Church an accomplice to terrorism?
Meanwhile, another storyline is unfolding in Estonia related to both the change of power in Tallinn, the pro-Russian positions of the Koos party, and the Social Democrats. The latter's leader, Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets, called for the Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to be declared an accomplice to terrorism. This was prompted by a statement from the World Russian People's Council under the leadership of the Moscow Patriarch Kirill, in which Russia's aggression in Ukraine was called a holy war.
"Putin's regime uses all possible mass media and propaganda channels, including speakers, such as church leaders, to justify its military activity. The exploitation of religion is inhumane, but Russia has used the Orthodox Church for decades as a tool of soft power, both within the country and to expand its sphere of influence in other countries," says the recently departed from the Centrists, now Social Democrat, former minister Tanel Kiik.
In January Estonian authorities did not extend the residence permit of Metropolitan Eugene, who was forced to leave the country. The reasons are quite transparent: just over a year ago, on the eve of the anniversary of the war in Ukraine, pro-Russian party Koos tried to hold together with the Orthodox metropolitan a so-called prayer service for peace in Ukraine. However, it should be noted that the party sees this peace more as a reconciliation with Russia, so the Estonian authorities interpreted such interference by the Orthodox Church in politics as a security threat. It should be noted that one high ranking Koos member, Aivo Peterson, is currently in jail pending his trial for treason in favor of Russia.
"The Metropolitan, of course, was put in a very bad position," notes political commentator Elkond Libman. "If it was not a provocation, then it was the foolishness. He probably did not understand the situation." In his opinion, it sounds a bit conspiratorial, but even if imagine that the Metropolitan received an order from Moscow to hold a joint prayer service for peace with the new political force, the campaign unleashed against the Orthodox Church is disproportionate.
However, law enforcement agencies disagree with this assessment: the activities of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate are also considered in the new annual report of the Internal Security Police, and Minister Lauri Läänemets and his party are making every effort to make the EOCMP become independent from Moscow. City management levers are also being used. Until now, the politicians of the Centre Party have maintained good relations with the Orthodox Church, including allowing it to rent premises on ridiculously favorable terms. Almost the first decision of the new Tallinn authority was to terminate some of these contracts.
To what extent all these events, which the Russian-speaking electorate largely perceives as persecution of what was seen as part of the normal way of life, will affect the outcome of the European Parliament elections will be known in a month and a half.
"In fact, the Russian-speaking population is disappointed not only in the Centrists but in Estonian politics in general," Elkond Libman notes. "The Centrists have lost a large share of support, while other parties have not gained it."
