The internal stability of the Republic of Moldova is threatened by pro-Russian politicians who are trying to stir the pot by capitalizing on the numerous crises facing this country. The most vocal of them are politicians who’ve had run-ins with the law, such as Ilan Shor, the mastermind behind the “billion-dollar theft”, as well as former Socialist leader Igor Dodon, indicted on five distinct charges. Aware of their schemes, Moscow uses energy exports as blackmail.
The relationship between Turkey and Greece is once again marked by tension, and Ankara's tough statements have made some observers wonder if this time there will be military confrontations. However, the current crisis seems to be related to the efforts made by the regime in Ankara to divert attention from domestic problems rather than to the old rivalry between the two countries.
The Republic of Moldova has increasingly distanced itself from Russia since the pro-European forces came to power in Chisinau following the early parliamentary elections of July 2021. The new government has taken a series of measures to reduce Moscow's influence and the dependence on it and sought, at the same time, to get in line, as much as possible, with the Western stands.
The Republic of Moldova could face a number of serious challenges this autumn, given that Russia wants to bring this country back into its orbit. At domestic level, Moscow is expected to use any leverage it has in the separatist region of Transnistria and in Găgăuzia. Adding to these pressure points will be the country’s energy concerns.
Most Ukrainians believe their country will win the war against Russia, reads a recent survey carried out by the International Republican Institute. The study also reveals that Ukrainians continue to argue in favor of Euro-Atlantic integration, although their perception of NATO reported fluctuations due to delays or readiness to provide military assistance, and they remain critical of their elected officials, despite the war.
Găgăuzia is perhaps the most pro-Russian region in the Republic of Moldova. A breakaway region since the early 90s, Găgăuzia eventually recognized Chișinău’s sovereignty, although it wants to break with this country in the event of a unification with Romania or even EU accession.
Uncertainty linked to the official language of the Republic of Moldova, 31 years after this country proclaimed its independence, reflects just how hard defining and accepting a national identity has been. The country’s inability to settle linguistic disputes and break away from “Moldovenism”, a Soviet construct, is one of Chișinău’s many failures: after 31 years of independence, the country is still unable to fully control its territory and to ensure its energy and military security.
Europe is facing the most severe drought in the last 500 years, but it is not the only continent affected by this phenomenon. The global scale of drought is yet another consequence of climate change. Water – the element that is vital for survival and key to industry and agriculture – has become increasingly disputed globally, its shortage producing economic, humanitarian and security crises.
The European track of the Republic of Moldova involves a break with its recent past, when the country was virtually at the mercy of highly influential oligarchs, who used their political leverage and media influence to create a genuine kleptocracy. One solution would be to apply the model employed by Ukraine, a country that passed a anti-oligarchic law.
In recent years, Ukraine has taken a series of measures to secure its information space, affected both by Russian manipulation and disinformation campaigns, and by the influence of some oligarchs pursuing their own interests. The measures include a law aimed at taking the media away from the control of oligarchs. The effect has been more state control over the media, and the question arises whether it is a temporary situation, justified by the war, or a regression of Ukrainian democracy.
Ayman al-Zawahiri was the ideologue of the Al-Qaida network, whose leadership he took over after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Al-Zawahiri was one of the most prominent terrorist leaders killed in the past two decades, but his death is unlikely to have a significant impact the jihadist movement.
The war in Ukraine brought back into focus an issue that had been known for a long time: Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. First, the possibility of European sanctions was raised, then Moscow reduced supplies, which caused panic in some Western capitals. What can Europeans do to escape Russian blackmail and how much should they fear the coming winter?
Over the past two decades, Moldovan wines have become one of the key elements in the geopolitical war between Chisinau and Moscow, but also a symbol of Moldova's attempt to escape the Russian influence.
The security context and the political will in Chisinau were the main valid arguments used by Romanian diplomacy in supporting the Republic of Moldova on its European path. The Republic of Moldova managed, in less than four months, from March 3rd till June 23rd, to shift from the status of country that officially applied for EU membership to that of candidate country. By comparison, the Western Balkan states received a clear European perspective from Brussels 19 years after the EU Thessaloniki Summit in 2003.
A country of strategic importance but not indispensable, involved in the war effort despite keeping its distance, Romania cannot congratulate itself enough in official discourse for having long foreseen the aggressive plans of Putin’s Russia. As usual, Romanian officials contend themselves with the dangerous illusion that nothing should be changed in their approach to the territory that separates Bucharest from Moscow.
The regional context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has inevitably led to a change in NATO's Strategic Concept. Accents have changed, and Russia has turned from a strategic partner of NATO into a “direct threat” to the security of the member states of the Alliance, as well as to some of their neighbors, including the Republic of Moldova.
Georgia was once considered the most reformist and pro-Western country in the former Soviet Union, with the exception of the Baltic republics. However, the last decade was marked by a slowdown in reforms and a rapprochement with Moscow, and the result was that Georgia did not receive the EU candidate status along with the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.
Last week’s announcement that the Republic of Moldova had received the status of EU candidate country is going to be a game changer for Chisinau, but it will also bring new challenges.
Respected and hated. Saw a lot of flowers, but was also cursed and even blown up. That’s the fate of the Monument of Victory in Riga which is, probably, going to be demolished as a consequence of Russia’s large scale invasion of Ukraine. Hundreds of other Soviet era monuments may soon follow
Turkey is threatening with a new offensive in Syria, invoking the danger of Kurdish terrorism. This danger appears to be low in Mardin, near the Kurdish-Syrian border, which confirms expert analyses according to which the Erdoğan regime is in fact trying to divert attention from the economic crisis it is facing.
The appointment of the new head of the Intelligence and Security Service of the Republic of Moldova (SIS), Alexandru Musteață, on June 2, is a genuine test for the government in Chișinău, an opportunity to prove its commitment to implement reforms in the field of defense and national security.
In the months that have passed since the start of Russia’s massive attack against Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky has turned out to be a remarkable leader. He didn’t flee, didn’t betray the people who put him in office, said no to illicit dealings and didn’t trade off the sovereignty of his country. The Russians tried to reach him during the first hours of the invasion. Is Moscow afraid of president Zelensky and the ideas he stood up for even before the war broke out?
Igor Dodon is undoubtedly the product of the profiteering political class of the Republic of Moldova. Tutored by the former Communist President Vladimir Voronin and the fugitive oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, Dodon has been described as a prototype of the duality of the Moldovan politician, interested only in making lots of money and capable of any kind of internal or external political betrayal. Detained for corruption and treason, Dodon is now complaining that he is the victim of political persecution.
The war in Ukraine is but the latest conflict at the start of a century that turned out to be rather impetuous, from the Middle East and Africa to the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Far East. It broke out just as mankind breathed a sigh of relief, acting as if the (coronavirus) pandemic was over, while others fear the new pandemic is already here. Will wars and pandemics become the “new normal” for the human race?
Poland is one of the NATO countries with the coldest relations with Russia. Concerned about Moscow's aggressive stance in the region, Warsaw called for a stronger NATO presence on the eastern flank and launched an ambitious program to equip its armed forces. But is Poland able to withstand enough attacks in the event of an attack?
The ruling coalition in Bulgaria has promised to improve the country’s relationship with North Macedonia ever since stepping in power. This has proved to be more difficult than expected as the topic is used to rally nationalist voters.
The Republic of Moldova’s neutrality is one of the favorite topics of Russian and pro-Russian propaganda. It is discussed when it comes to adopting measures that do not suit Moscow, but the reality of the presence of Russian forces in Moldova, which means a violation of its neutrality, is constantly ignored. Other narratives are switched depending on the needs; neutrality, however, has been a constant one.
For more than a month, Serbia has been the target of mass bomb threats. Pro-government tabloids and some high-ranking officials claim that the campaign has behind it the West and is connected to Belgrade’s reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia, while offering no proof for the allegations. However, Russia, or Serbia’s own intelligence services may as well be interested to launch such a campaign.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine is first and foremost a warning to all those who are convinced that the shortcomings of democracy, especially there were it’s still in a process of consolidation, can be combated by a kind of transfer of expertise from authoritarian regimes. With the example of China in mind, but paying close attention to Putin's propaganda, many Romanians, including politicians, were convinced that, despite its “shortcomings”, authoritarianism was effective.
The war in Ukraine is affecting the economy of the Republic of Moldova, which is already the poorest country in Europe. Tens of thousands of refugees are currently on Moldovan soil, the markets in Russia and Ukraine are much harder to access, imports from those countries are suffering, and all this is compounded by rising global prices and energy dependence on Russia. However, Chisinau could also benefit from the crisis, by accelerating its accession to the European Union.
Although it officially has a close partnership with Russia, China is in no hurry to support it now, when it faces economic and military issues as a result of the invasion of Ukraine. With the image affected by the way it handles the current pandemic wave, Beijing does not need more negative publicity now that Xi Jinping is preparing for a new term at the helm of the country. Moreover, the war in Ukraine seems to have affected China's plans to bring Taiwan under its control.
A survey carried out by an independent center a month since the start of the war in Ukraine shows massive support from the Russian population for the so-called “special operation”, as well as for the Putin administration. The support might diminish as the people start feeling the effects of the conflict and of international sanctions.
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