The pro-Europeans achieve a landslide victory in the parliamentary election in Moldova, following an election dominated by geopolitics and Russian interference, whose efforts ultimately proved futile. However, the results also show that the Republic of Moldova continues to remain deeply divided.
An election that was truly crucial for the future of the Republic of Moldova
The pro-European Action and Solidarity Party practically manages to maintain its result from the previous election and is now in a position to form a new parliamentary majority and lead the Republic of Moldova for another four years.
The election was one of the most difficult in the country's history and demonstrated once again the deep division of society and the political class in Chișinău. Like most elections in this country that has always oscillated between East and West, the one on September 28 was also deemed “crucial”.
This time, however, there was a real struggle between continuing on the European path of the Republic of Moldova, which has been gaining momentum since 2022, and its return to Russia’s sphere of influence and the respective consequences.
Russia lost. Again
In short, the first emotional observation would be that Russia lost again in the Republic of Moldova. The parties it relied on to take control of the country lost disappointingly, despite all the propaganda efforts, attempts to rig the elections, buy votes and the preparations for mass-destabilization.
Another observation would be that a core of Moldova’s pro-European electorate has consolidated. Despite the dissatisfaction, propaganda, and failures of the government that shares their visions, these people will vote for Moldova staying its present course. Despite one of the most difficult mandates in the country's history (the post-pandemic crisis, the fallout from the war in Ukraine), the obstacles posed by the system, the blunders, some of them huge, PAS lost less than 3% compared to the previous election, that is, it practically preserved its result after four years of governance. These pro-European voters making up approximately 50% of the electorate had their say in 2021, made their presence felt in 2024 in the presidential election and the referendum following which the objective of European integration was enshrined in the Constitution, and reconfirmed their share in the parliamentary election.
PAS will hold 55 out of 101 mandates in the future Parliament. The rather large difference compared to the old legislature, when the party hard secured 63 mandates, is explained by the fact that then 3 competitors have entered Parliament, and now there will be 5. This also means that the opposition that PAS will have to face is more fragmented, especially since it also includes two alliances of several parties which, over the years, have been in opposing positions.
The Moldovan diaspora saves the day. Again
Just like in last year's presidential election and referendum, Moldovans abroad were the ones that tipped the political balance of the vote towards the West. Without the diaspora vote, PAS would not have secured the majority, just as last year's referendum would not have passed, and Maia Sandu would not have been re-elected president. Of course, Russian propaganda will seize every opportunity to highlight this aspect to delegitimize the election results and the future government. The result also shows that the Moldovan diaspora has not been “AURIZED” (a reference to Romania’s AUR Party). At least for now, although the first signs can be already be observed.
PAS won 44% of the vote at home, and over 78% abroad (in Romania over 88%). Despite some fears, it also did well (almost 53%) in Chișinău, where in recent years the influence of the initially pro-Russian, now declared pro-European (but with a ban on entry into the EU), mayor Ion Ceban had increased. Ceban won his second term as mayor of Chișinău in the first round in 2023, and now his bloc has taken 14% of the vote.
Găgăuzia remains deeply anti-European
This election also shows that the Găgăuz Autonomous Territorial Unit remains a special case on the map of the Republic of Moldova, despite all the European investments that have been made in this pro-Russian region. The open scandal between the government and the political class in Comrat was to the detriment of PAS, which took 3%. Admittedly, the result is not very different from that of the 2021 parliamentary election, when PAS obtained 4% Găgăuzia.
In addition to Găgăuzia in the south, the north remains similarly anti-European. It could be that during the Soviet period the North was more industrialized and more Russified compared to the Center. Also, the share of Russian-speaking minorities is higher in the North, unlike the Center which, with the exception of Chișinău, is even more monoethnic.
Transnistria – over 30% of the vote went to PAS
A surprise came from the voters in Transnistria who, as expected, massively voted for pro-Russian parties, but over 30% voted for PAS and other right-wing parties, approximately the same as in the 2024 referendum. The vote for PAS more than doubled compared to previous parliamentary election. Figures show that there is a good part of the population in the region affected by the economic crisis, many residing of the left bank of the Dniester work on the right bank (which was not the case until a few years ago) and, respectively, see the difference. Russia supports the separatist region less and less. It has fewer and fewer levers to intervene and people are acknowledging the realities on the ground. However, only a small part of the number of voters in Transnistria (12,000) voted, also due to the filters and impediments imposed by Chișinău, so any conclusion would be biased in this regard.
In the Russian Federation, where only two polling stations were opened – a decision harshly criticized by Moscow and pro-Russian politicians – a little more than 4,000 people voted, compared to the 10,000 on eligible lists.
The big surprise – Vasile Costiuc, Moldova’s George Simion
The big surprise of the election is the Democracy Home Party, founded by Vasile Costiuc. To put it bluntly, the party very much resembles Romania’s AUR Party, as the two politicians (Costiuc and Simion) are known for helping each other. Vasile Costiuc has been known in the journalistic environment in Chișinău since 2008-2009, when he worked as a driver and cameraman at Jurnal TV, an anti-communist TV station during the Voronin government. He then entered politics. Initially in the Liberal Party of Mihai Ghimpu and Dorin Chirtoacă, from where he left in the wake of a scandal and founded Democracy Home in 2011. He made a name for himself rather as a scandalous politician, being accused of playing into the hands of oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc and setting himself up as a defender of farmers and agriculturists who are always protesting. His party grabbed 5.6% of the vote, that is, barely making the 5% threshold, which will nevertheless ensure 5-6 seats in Parliament, in opposition, from where it will be able to criticize the government, already more vocal and visible, and increase its share, precisely based on model of AUR.
Until then, however, PAS should continue the reforms it has started and bring more results in the areas where it has been underperforming, primarily in the judiciary and the economy. PAS obtained a new majority with the slogan “EU 2028”, that is, the promise that it will take the country into the EU by 2028. An overly optimistic promise, especially since it depends not only on domestic developments, but, as the classic saying goes - the art of politics is knowing how to explain why you could not deliver on your promises. It is important that it at least demonstrate that the EU integration process is not just a myth and that it can bring real benefits to the citizens of the Republic of Moldova.
