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The Belarusian opposition holds no hope for the coming presidential elections, due on January 26, to be fair. Strongman Alexander Lukashenko, in power for 30 years, will likely extend his rule, which means that the country will remain at odds with the West and in Russia’s grip.
Veridica spoke with the director of the independent Belarusian think tank in exile Center for New ideas Alesia Rudnik, who shared insights into how the process will unfold and what to expect from the regime. Alesia Rudnik is a victim of the regime herself, having been sentenced, in absentia, to 10 years in jail.
Those that raise against Lukashenko risk “detention, torture, pressure on relatives, emigration, seized properties, impossibility to rejoin the job market”
VERIDICA: First of all, let's discuss the atmosphere in Belarus. How would you describe the current political climate in the country as we approach the presidential elections?
ALESIA RUDNIK: Belarus remains an autocracy with all the following features: the high level of repression, state control over informational, political, social, cultural spheres. On the eve of the election, the ruling elites have both increased pressure on the remaining activists and initiatives, and tightened any possibilities for dissent by completely shutting down information on electoral officials, announcing the election date as late as possible, exerting pressure on citizens by pushing them to take part in citizen “campaigning” in the framework of outrageous social media flashmob in support of Lukashenko.
As in all the previous elections, there are no debates or criticisms of Lukashenko, who once again made sure that his people control the electoral commission which will announce his victory in the upcoming election. Additionally, authoritative foreign observers are not coming to monitor the election, which is again another sign of tightened control over the election.
VERIDICA: What kind of atmosphere do you expect during the elections? Should we anticipate heightened repression as the election date approaches?
ALESIA RUDNIK: I would expect the authorities to shut down the Internet to prevent any leakages of information. There may be some of the staged detentions on the eve of the election, selling a narrative of the groups of people planning the sabotages (as it happened during the election in 2024). We may also see the staged TV reportages of political prisoners voting for Lukashenko or similar. So I expect a lot of media coverage by propaganda, but I think the level of repression will remain similar to the current one.
VERIDICA: After the brutal crackdown on protests in 2020, mass demonstrations this year seem unlikely. However, foreign observers often ask: why aren’t Belarusians protesting? Could you explain the consequences people would face if they attempted to protest now?
ALESIA RUDNIK: It would be detention, torture, pressure on relatives, emigration, seized properties, impossibility to rejoin the job market.
Lukashenko will remain loyal to Putin as long as his own power is not threatened
VERIDICA: It’s no secret that the election outcome will favour Alexander Lukashenko. In your opinion, what can we expect from his next term in office?
ALESIA RUDNIK: Nothing new: manoeuvring Putin’s pressure on the country, manipulating all the spheres of life to secure the regime's status quo, an increased willingness to build closer economic and political ties with China.
VERIDICA: Let’s discuss the Russian impact in detail. How do you anticipate Lukashenko's policies toward Putin and Western countries will evolve in the near future?
ALESIA RUDNIK: They will not evolve in the near future. Lukashenko will remain loyal to Putin to the degree that this loyalty does not threaten his own position in power. Western countries will continue to publicly withhold from communication to Lukashenko, but behind closed doors will attempt to influence the release of political prisoners. In the event of Western policies changing towards Russia, the politics against Belarus will be mirrored accordingly.
VERIDICA: What changes, if any, do you foresee in Lukashenko’s stance on the war in Ukraine, given his loyalty to Putin so far?
ALESIA RUDNIK: No serious changes, he has always given misleading signals and manoeuvring rhetorics, but actions speak louder than words and he will continue supporting Putin as little he needs to gain as much he can.
The release of some political prisoners is not enough to change the regime and its relationship with the West
VERIDICA: The number of political prisoners in Belarus remains staggeringly high — 1,258 people are currently detained. Yet since summer 2024, Lukashenko has started releasing some prisoners, seemingly as part of an effort to engage with Western countries. Do you think this trend will continue?
ALESIA RUDNIK: I think it will continue. However, it will take a lot of effort and emotional strength on his side to decide to release the major political opponents. So, the scale of releases may be around the same.
VERIDICA: How successful do you think this strategy might be? Will Western governments be willing to overlook Lukashenko’s crimes in exchange for such gestures, especially when new arrests follow every release?
ALESIA RUDNIK: First, I don’t think that the Western governments can in practice overlook the crimes of Lukashenko. Secondly, even if they overlook, the sanctions, introduced for other actions, will not be lifted because of the release of the political prisoners. But if he releases the political opponents, some of the Western governments may be giving him a signal that he is getting closer to the right track.
VERIDICA: In your opinion, when might significant changes occur in Belarus, and what factors would likely trigger such a transformation?
ALESIA RUDNIK: I believe in transformation upon the internal system collapse or de-autocratization via evolution. No protests are possible, and as we saw in 2020, they would not trigger the changes. The most realistic scenario, in my view, is the personal will of Lukashenko to give up personal power and keep a symbolic control over it.
VERIDICA: With the Belarusian economy under strain and ongoing Western sanctions, what role do you think economic pressures play in shaping the regime’s strategy ahead of the elections?
ALESIA RUDNIK: Economic situation does not shape Lukahsneka’s politics ahead of the election. He is “safe” while Russia’s economy is functioning.
If Putin is out, Belarus may have a small window of opportunity to get out of “the Russian political trap”
VERIDICA: Belarus’s alliance with Russia seems stronger than ever. Is there any chance that Lukashenko could shift course, or is he now irreversibly tied to Putin’s agenda?
ALESIA RUDNIK: Unrealistically for now, but in case of Putin loosing his power with another person becoming a president, there is a small window of opportunity for Lukashenko to find his way out of the Russian political trap. But as there is no alternative alliance for him, I doubt it can happen.
VERIDICA: How do you see the role of the Belarusian diaspora in shaping international perceptions of the elections and supporting domestic dissent?
ALESIA RUDNIK: There is no domestic dissent which I know of. However, some of the milder discontent practices such as voting “against all” may be motivated from abroad. At the same time, diaspora’s role in shaping the domestic dissent is absent due to high security risks of such ties for the Belarusians inside the country.
International perceptions are primarily shaped by the Belarusian opposition in exile, and partly as well by their political diaspora representatives from Peoples Embassies, who regularly inform the politicians of their country on the political situation. However, I am not aware of any specific strategies of diaspora actions in the residence countries related to the election.
