For several years now, migrants, mostly from the Middle East, have been forcibly pushed into Latvia from Belarus. News about these cases has become so commonplace that it has partially lost its importance. However, it is expected that this form of hybrid warfare will remain relevant, and the pressure on Latvia will not ease.
The migrant crisis, part of the hybrid war waged raged by Belarus (and Russia) against the EU
In August 2020, Belarus’ longtime leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who had been ruling the country since 1994, was proclaimed (again) winner of the presidential elections. The West and the opposition said that the polls had been rigged, with the latter claiming that the real winner was Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. There were reports that in the first round of the election, she was chosen by 56%, against 34% that had voted for Lukashenko.
However, the Central Election Commission announced that Lukashenko crushed his main opponent, with 80% of the votes against Tsikhanouskaya’s 9.9%.
Latvia, along with other countries, criticized the conduct of the elections, pointed out violations, and denounced the violent clampdown of the protests that erupted following the elections. Lukashenko threatened that Belarus would no longer prevent migrants from crossing the border with the European Union countries Belarus shares borders with – Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. He would soon make good on his threats. In the summer of 2021, the authorities of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia accused Belarus of deliberately and purposefully transferring migrants to Minsk and then training them so that they could enter the Baltics and Poland. The EU pointed out that the actions of Belarus and its special services are a form of hybrid warfare. Lukashenko went even further than simply allowing the migrants to transit Belarus – he encouraged them to come, and even created new flight routes to bring them from the Middle East.
Minsk’s policy was quickly denounced as a form of hybrid war and it has been ongoing, with the different degrees of intensity, for 5 years.
Tsikhanouskaya, while visiting Latvia in 2025, admitted that migration is an effective tool to keep neighboring countries in a state of stress. In her opinion, migration may even increase, because it is a way to put pressure on the EU.
Belarus is not alone in this hybrid war it wages against the EU. Many suspect that the war was instigated by Russia, which is interested in taking attention away from its war in Ukraine. With a migration problem on their head, Poland and the Baltic states will have less resources to help Kyiv. Also, they are shown what they risk if Moscow doesn’t like their policies. It is worth noted that Russia was itself responsible for a migration “stress test” against Finland, which drew Moscow’s ire by deciding to abandon its neutrality and join NATO.
A goal shared by Belarus and Russia: long time pressure through migrants on EU borders and society
Following the spike in migrant activity after the Belarus presidential elections, the pressure gradually decreased during the following years, according to State Border Guard representative Kristīne Pētersone. For example, in 2023, there were almost 14,000 attempts to cross the border, but in 2024, just over 5,000.
The researcher at the Centre for East European Policy Studies Armands Astukevičs told Veridica that the pressure from migrants has become a “shape-maintaining” measure for the Latvian Border Guard and other services. “We have adapted to hybrid warfare. There have been different phases: there was the initial shock with large flows of migrants (..) and now there is something else”.
This “something else” is the constant pressure – on the one hand, on the Latvian institutions, starting with those in charge of border security and migration. On the other hand, there is a psychological pressure on the Latvian society as a whole, and this stems from the moral issue of whether is right to turn away people that are trying to get to Europe in search of a better life or, in some cases, in search of a safe space where they could keep their lives. Some small groups of activists are calling for more of these people to be allowed into Latvia, or at least not to push them back into Belarus, thus forcing them to live in the forests of Latvia and Belarus for weeks and even months. Here, one must remember the case of activist and anthropologist Ieva Raubiško, who is accused of assisting in illegal border crossing. A trial is currently underway to examine the State Border Guard’s accusation against Raubiško. She emphasized that Latvia needs to respect human rights more and rejects the accusations of the State Border Guard.
Armands Astukevičs thinks that Belarus and its partner Russia were counting on creating a moral quandary. Human rights are at the very core of the EU values, and thus the issue of handling migration has always been a difficult one for European leaders, caught between the values that require openness and the internal social pressures that are fueling the rise of populist and far-right parties which have not only an anti-migration agenda, but also an anti-EU one. That pressure had already lead to stricter policies towards migration. However, at the same time, Europeans are not giving up their values, and that is why they are trying to differentiate between migrants and refugees. Astukevičs thinks that that difference also applies in the case of those being pushed by Belarus towards Latvia’s border: “We cannot speak of refugees, because these are people who are often not in danger,” he points out.
The hybrid war, closely connected to the war in Ukraine
This year, the number of these attempts has increased again. For example, in April and May, 1,500-2,000 people tried to cross the border every month. This year, as of July 23, 7,519 migrants have not been allowed to cross the border. Migrants trying to cross the Belarus – Russia border have also become more aggressive – they are armed with metal-cutting shears, as well as stones that they throw at border guards. This year, an attack on a border guard has also been recorded. There have been cases where a warning shot in the air was necessary.
Both Pētersone and Astukevičs think that the flow of migrants will not decrease in the foreseeable future. Pētersone points out that the number of migrants increases at times when Latvia has made an unfavorable decision regarding Belarus. It is not clear when this hybrid operation could end, because the solution lies in politics. Therefore, the Border Guard, together with the Latvian Army and the Lithuanian and Estonian border guards, is preparing for further long-term work.
Astukevičs thinks that the operation will continue as long as the war in Ukraine continues. “As long as that is going on, the migration operation will continue,” he emphasizes.
