Whoever is willing to take the risk of acquiring Lukoil’s overseas assets will be making a move with international repercussions, not just a daring gamble. Bulgaria (just like Romania and Serbia with the Lukoil assets on their territories) has been in a hurry to find new partners and guarantee future fuel supplies from the refinery in Burgas. The changes in ownership likely mean the Kremlin will lose economic influence in the region but expectations are that the new deals will benefit the local strongmen rather than bring viable partners.
It’s in the hands of Bulgaria’s brittle government to navigate a complicated process all while battling a new protest wave and massive frustration over the economic prospects of the country.
It is still unclear whether real negotiations, likely with US companies, are underway or if the Bulgarian government will move to fully nationalize the refinery through the contested annual budget amendments.
On December 2, Romania followed through with a similar move after the government approved a decree to take control of the local assets of companies under international sanctions, such as Lukoil, which owns the third largest refinery in the country. In Bulgaria’s case, this gradual nationalization of the refinery’s headquarters will be another test of the stability of the current coalition, more and more functioning on the basis of a cartel agreement.
Gone in 26 Seconds
Since early November, Bulgaria has been amending laws to escape the US sanctions that went effective on November 21.
In October, Washington had frozen the US-based assets of Russia’s two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, while threatening secondary penalties for foreign entities engaging with them.
Despite not dealing with Russian crude oil since March 2024, the refinery in Burgas remains an important asset for the region as it has shifted to alternative sources from Kazakhstan, Iraq and Tunisia, still through Lukoil’s network.
After the US sanctions were announced, Bulgaria made an uncharacteristically swift move: the parliament’s Energy Commission gathered and accepted the amendments to the Law on the Administrative Regulation of Economic Activities Related to Oil and Oil Products in just 26 seconds.
This somehow echoes the way Germany secured its supply of fuel from Rosneft refineries on its territory by placing them under government trusteeship back in 2022. However, in Lukoil and Bulgaria’s context, the development has encouraged speculation that the refinery will be given to a government-friendly figure – and that would mean a missed opportunity to challenge the oil monopoly in the country, currently ruled by longtime dominant populist party GERB, opposition-turned allies Bulgarian Socialist Party and There’s Such a People, with the backing of New Beginning, the latest political vehicle for Magnitsky Act-sanctioned, Pandora Papers-exposed tycoon Delyan Peevski. Choosing a figure close to the power holds several risks: the state would lay hands on profitable private enterprise, entirely dependent on the spider-web of political dependencies between Peevski and GERB's leader Boyko Borissov.
Opposition lawmakers from We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria claim that they were not informed about the time of the Commission’s meeting, with some not knowing it was planned at all.
The changes in the law require the appointing of an external administrator who would act as a temporary figure to oversee the refinery’s sale to a new buyer – but finding a new buyer from Lukoil is not that easy, as anyone that does business with the Russian company risks being targeted by the US sanctions as well. Swiss-owned Gunvor backed out of a supposed deal after the US Treasury labeled the company a “Kremlin puppet”; media reports about the US companies Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Romocco Fuels being interested have so far remained in the speculation area.
Bodybuilder turned financial expert: who is Lukoil’s current chief
Although currently close to the GERB-led coalition, the name of Rumen Spetsov became known as the pro-EU opposition in Bulgaria, led by We Continue the Change, took power in 2021. Spetsov was brought on stage as one of the fresh faces of the reformist wave, also catching attention for his rather curious biography.
Born in 1974 and graduating National Security studies at the Academy of the Ministry of Interior, Rumen Spetsov made a career as a bodybuilder. He became vice-republican champion in 2009, 2014, and 2015 and a champion in bodybuilding for veterans in 2014 and 2015, also participated in a reality show. By the mid-2010’s he took a career turn as a financial consultant, a continuation of his everyday work at the National Revenue Agency. In May 2021, he was appointed head of the National Revenue Agency, then was ousted by the interim government selected by President Rumen Radev and reinstated on the position in 2023, when We Continue the Change again took the mandate for a short-lived coalition.
Despite the party being relegated again to the opposition, Spetsov has surprisingly managed to secure his position and stay close enough to the government to play a part in the current Lukoil controversy. On June 17, local media asked whether We Continue the Change still has trust into Spetsov, co-leader and former Finance Minister Assen Vassilev said “since I stopped being a minister, I have not spoken to Mr. Spetsov even once. I think that answers your question."
When Spetsov was announced as the leading candidate to become a special commercial manager of Lukoil, Asen Vasilev called the decision "a bad joke”, furtherly signalling the newfound distance between Spetsov and the party that raised his profile. Spetsov is yet to make a media appearance or make a comment in his new role.
In statements, officials are trying to paint a situation where little is actually dependent on them and that sanctions on Lukoil, despite the company being Russia-owned, are unexpected. GERB leader Boyko Borissov said on November 26 that “maybe only Trump knows” what will happen with the refinery and referred to the sanctions as “a bolt from the blue sky”.
Russia’s predictable reaction
Understandably, the events caused ideological clashes, with the pro-Russia far-right force Revival probing the Court on November 21 to investigate the government for acting in breaching private property definitions in the Constitution.
Russian ambassador in Bulgaria Eleonora Mitrofanova has also criticized the move, most recently on November 26 when she described to local media the appointment of Spetsov as a “dangerous precedent”, as it allows for the confiscation of private business without the owner’s consent, and said that she hopes authorities to solve the matter to avoid “the worst scenario”, likely referring to potential economic woes during the winter; these statements play along in the pro-Russia narrative that if Bulgaria attempts to diversify resources or limit Russia-owned businesses, the country will crack under various inefficiencies. Similar rhetoric was noticeable around Bulgaria's cut-off with Gazprom in 2022.
The Burgas facility, established in 1998, supplies more than two-thirds of Bulgaria’s domestic fuel and has been a major economic factor; however most experts are positive that the country has enough of a reserve to secure a transition.
The anti-government protests may further complicate Sofia’s plans about Lukoil
Almost a year after stepping into power, Bulgaria’s coalition is heading to a turbulent end of 2025 after tens of thousands took the streets in Sofia on November 26 and December 1 to protest the current 2026 budget plan - controversial for requiring tax hikes on private businesses to fund state-sector wage rises, seen as a tactic move to grip on state institutions and limit the private sector.
It remains to be seen whether one of the draft changes in the budget plan – the maximum amount of state guarantees to be suddenly increased by €2 billion, from €3.8 billion to €5.8 billion – is hinting that Bulgaria might fully obtain Lukoil. Political leaders have so far not commented on such a scenario.
The current protest wave – openly demanding the cabinet’s resignation while the opposition is initiating a no-confidence motion this Friday at the parliament – also puts pressure on how Lukoil’s fate will be handed.
