Four years into the war, the EU - Russia trade relationship has been radically reshaped but not extinguished.
Russia invaded Ukraine to bring it back into its orbit. After years of war, the Russians would be content with even gaining some territory. But that would be a Pyrrhic victory, as Russia lacks the resources to effectively rebuild and administer war-torn areas.
Over the past four years, Russia's economy has been reoriented to support the war effort and, for a time, seemed able to withstand sanctions. But now Moscow is facing economic stagnation as its financial reserves continue to dwindle.
Russia’s failure to provide security or reliable partnership has led local leaders to seek alternatives. Moscow is losing the role of default arbiter, while Turkey, the EU, the United States, and increasingly China fill the space.
Behind the façade of resilience lies a system increasingly driven by asset seizures, political loyalty, and the enrichment of a new elite.
Bulgaria needs to find another owner for its Lukoil refinery after the US imposed sanctions on the Russian giant. There is a good chance that instead of attracting international investors, Sofia will turn to local barons.
