NIS is currently Russia’s most important tool of economic leverage over Serbia. Belgrade must force its sell in order to avoid US sanctions. It would be the most consequential energy transaction in the Balkans in two decades. However, there are lots of questions lingering over this story.
Montenegro hopes to join the EU in 2028. However, this target could be missed due to powerful political actors who prefer rapprochement with Serbia and the adoption of Russian-inspired laws.
President Alexander Vučić's party continues to win elections in Serbia despite facing the largest protests in the country's history. The government is taking advantage of the fact that the students at the forefront of the protests lack a clear strategy and view the pro-European opposition, which has the necessary political experience, with suspicion.
Russia and Serbia are waging similar online operations, and their messages often amplify each other. But there is one significant difference: Russia's online campaign is a dimension of its imperial policy, while the Belgrade regime targets domestic audiences in Serbia.
In the Putin era, Iran has become one of Russia’s most significant allies and a key element for Moscow’s ambitions in the Middle East. What Russia cannot do, however, is protect its ally, and that says a lot about the true strength of the “empire” that Vladimir Putin wants.
