The regional context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has inevitably led to a change in NATO's Strategic Concept. Accents have changed, and Russia has turned from a strategic partner of NATO into a “direct threat” to the security of the member states of the Alliance, as well as to some of their neighbors, including the Republic of Moldova.
Every day, Russian citizens learn from news segments about the victories reported by the Russian army on the Ukrainian front. Even when troops are retreating or conquering a few small villages despite sustaining heavy losses, the Ministry of Defense spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, invokes resounding achievements. A PROEKT.MEDIA investigation reveals that many such achievements are in fact mathematical and geographical falsehoods.
The Republic of Moldova will enter a profound crisis if it joins the European Union and anti-Russian sanctions, the Russian official news agency and the Moldovan fugitive oligarch, Ilan Shor, claim. The issue of anti-Russian sanctions exploited by Russian propaganda and Russia’s agents of influence is one of the recurrent threats Kremlin uses to pressure Chișinău.
In theory, Romania is not overly reliant on Russia in economic terms. Trade relations are limited, the number of Russian companies operating on the Romanian market is relatively small, and Romanian imports of oil and gas from Russia are incomparably lower compared to those of other EU countries. Over the years, however, Russian oligarchs, most of whom are connected to the Kremlin, have taken possession of huge chunks of certain sectors of the Romanian economy. Adding to these economic levers are political ones too – there are Romanians who, consciously or not, are playing into Moscow’s hands. It’s a strategy Russia has been applying ever since the 1990s in most ex-communist states.
Vladimir Soloviov is a Russian journalist based in the Republic of Moldova. He writes for Kommersant. Veridica spoke with Mr. Soloviov in Chisinau about the political developments in the Republic of Moldova, Russia’s imperial claims and the war in Ukraine, but also about the almost non-existent relationship between Russia and Romania.
According to narratives launched by pro-Russian politicians in Chisinau and officials in Moscow, the European Union offers the status of accession candidate using Russophobia as a criterion and, together with NATO, is building a war coalition against Russia. Such narratives have appeared in the context in which the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine received the status of candidate countries for EU accession.
The Russian independent media writes about volunteers with no military training whom Moscow sends to die in Ukraine, as well as about the role of mercenary groups fighting for the Russians. The Kremlin is mindful not just about battlefront developments, but also about the way it is selling the war to the next generation of young Russians: the new school curricula includes the new Putinist ideology and the official rhetoric about the war in Donbas.
The chess rivalry between Russia and Ukraine existed before the invasion of February 2022. It also existed before the first invasion of Russia in February 2014. It existed, one might say, before the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991. But it has never been harsher than this year. The world of chess has once again become, as it was during the Cold War, a battleground for image, influence and power.
The war in Ukraine has brought to the fore the poor state of the Moldovan army, which remains underequipped after being neglected by the authorities in the last three decades. Yet the commonplace view in Chișinău right now is that the army should at least fend off an aggression coming from Transnistria. Russia and its mouthpieces, on the other hand, continue to absurdly claim that Moldova modernizing its army would be tantamount to breaching its neutrality.
For Europe to evade the Russian threat, Russia needs to slip into a period of instability once Putin is gone, says Vladimir Socor. In an interview to Veridica, Vladimir Socor says the early signs of post-Soviet expansionism became transparent in the 1990s, also referring to Ukraine’s chances in the current war.
Moldova is undergoing an economic crisis, and the Government and the West is providing it with weapons for the war in Ukraine, while at the same time preparing the unification with Romania. The narratives were launched by former president, Igor Dodon, and were amplified by the pro-Socialist and Russian media.
The Transnistrian is not an obstacle to the EU integration of Chișinău, says the ambassador the Republic of Moldova in Romania, Victor Chirilă. In an interview to Veridica, the Moldovan diplomat said that, should Ukraine win the war against Russia, Tiraspol leaders will become “more flexible”. Victor Chirilă analyzed the security risks for Chișinău, as well as the main projects carried out by the Republic of Moldova jointly with Romania.
Poland is one of the NATO countries with the coldest relations with Russia. Concerned about Moscow's aggressive stance in the region, Warsaw called for a stronger NATO presence on the eastern flank and launched an ambitious program to equip its armed forces. But is Poland able to withstand enough attacks in the event of an attack?
The Republic of Moldova’s neutrality is one of the favorite topics of Russian and pro-Russian propaganda. It is discussed when it comes to adopting measures that do not suit Moscow, but the reality of the presence of Russian forces in Moldova, which means a violation of its neutrality, is constantly ignored. Other narratives are switched depending on the needs; neutrality, however, has been a constant one.
Ukrainian neo-Nazis are keeping civilians hostage in various locations across the Kharkiv oblast, the Russian state media writes. In fact, the locations in question have long been occupied by Russia, and the local council claims the Russian soldiers are committing war crimes.
For more than a month, Serbia has been the target of mass bomb threats. Pro-government tabloids and some high-ranking officials claim that the campaign has behind it the West and is connected to Belgrade’s reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia, while offering no proof for the allegations. However, Russia, or Serbia’s own intelligence services may as well be interested to launch such a campaign.
The war in Ukraine has sparked a great of deal of concern in the Republic of Moldova, where the people have seen just how vulnerable the country is in case of a Russian attack. Neglected for years due to underfunding, incompetence or for the sake of “neutrality”, the army seems underprepared to efficiently defend the country. The West is trying to lend a helping hand and has promised to deliver military equipment.
Vladimir Putin and the Russian elite denounce the West and the lack of patriotism of the Russians who choose to live there, but even the children of the elite - including Putin's daughter - have chosen the comfort of living in the Western states, according to the Russian independent media. Another topic is that of the Western politicians who chose Russia and the generosity with which it rewarded them.
Western countries are waging a war by proxy in Ukraine against Russia, and seek to destroy this country, although the armed conflict is affecting the West more than it does Russia.
Nearly three million Ukrainians want to reach Russia, which is already home to over a million war refugees, according to a false narrative launched the Russian MFA and Kremlin-affiliated media. In fact, Russia launched a genuine campaign to forcefully displace Ukrainians from the territories it currently controls. Besides, nine in ten Ukrainians see Russia as their enemy.
Kyiv has allowed 10,000 troops from Poland and Lithuania to enter its territory. The forces are expected to “occupy” and “plunder” Ukraine, the Russian media writes in a new false narrative about the occupation of Western Ukraine by Russia. The fake news is part of broader metanarratives concerning the West’s involvement in the war and the artificial character of the Ukrainian state, which makes it unstable.
Putin has announced the start of World War III and will use nuclear weapons because, due to the West’s involvement, its forces cannot win the war. The narrative is promoted by Sorin Roșca Stănescu, who was given a criminal sentence and who is known for his opinions that very much resemble Russian propaganda. The Kremlin has long promoted the possible start of nuclear warfare, in order to determine the West to withdraw its support for Ukraine.
Outside Russia, Moscow’s representatives and supporters tried to mark Victory Day in ex-Soviet and ex-communist countries, but in most cases, their actions were overshadowed by protest actions against Russia’s acts of aggression or demonstrations of solidarity with Ukraine. Veridica’s contributors in ex-Soviet and ex-communist states have closely followed May 9 celebrations.
The leaders of the Russian Orthodox Church have been sentenced to death on the territory of Ukraine. Spread by the Russian media, this propaganda narrative misquotes a decision issued by the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
The Russian media has reverted to the narrative regarding Poland’s intention to occupy part of Ukraine, this time focusing on the statements of president Andrzej Duda, which it took out of context and interpreted in a different key.
Tens of thousands of people have left Russia in the last three months due to oppression, condemning the aggression in Ukraine. Many have stayed however, continuing to oppose the establishment and to take part in anti-war actions. A large number of journalists, activists and human rights militants have no intention of letting up, despite the repressive legislation and the risk of facing criminal punishments. Veridica has selected a number of topics from the top independent sources in Russia.
Ukrainian soldiers practice satanic rituals invoking dark forces to help them in battle, according to the Russian news agency Ria Novosti. The story aims to demonize the opponent, the Ukrainian army.
May 9 will be different than usual: celebrating it could be seen as a celebration of Russia’s aggression. While waiting for the events in Moscow and elsewhere to unfold, Veridica has set out to find out what May 9 may still mean in the former USSR and ex-communist countries, as reported by its correspondents in those countries.
Having joined Ukrainian fighters with the “Azov” battalion, Israeli mercenaries have arrived in Ukraine to fight Russia. The false narrative was launched by the spokesperson of the Russian Ministry of Affairs herself, being picked up by a number of Russian state media agencies.
A survey carried out by an independent center a month since the start of the war in Ukraine shows massive support from the Russian population for the so-called “special operation”, as well as for the Putin administration. The support might diminish as the people start feeling the effects of the conflict and of international sanctions.
As May 9 draws closer, the day when Russia and other ex-Soviet countries celebrate the victory against Nazi Germany, the number of incidents impacting Moldova’s weak spots increases. In Găgăuzia or Bălți, there are voices calling for breaching the law banning the symbols associated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Several unclaimed “attacks” have taken place in Transnistria.
Crimean Tatars support Russia’s war against Ukraine, which the Kremlin has dubbed “a special military operation”, reads a false narrative disseminated by Russian state media. In fact, Tatars have opposed Russian aggression ever since 2014, when Moscow occupied and captured Crimea.