The regional context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has inevitably led to a change in NATO's Strategic Concept. Accents have changed, and Russia has turned from a strategic partner of NATO into a “direct threat” to the security of the member states of the Alliance, as well as to some of their neighbors, including the Republic of Moldova.
Therefore, the NATO allies decided to include the Republic of Moldova in the final declaration of the NATO summit that took place last week in Madrid.
“In light of the changed security environment in Europe, we have decided on new measures to step up tailored political and practical support to partners, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and the Republic of Moldova. We will work with them to build their integrity and resilience, develop capabilities, and uphold their political independence”, the document approved by the NATO allies on June 29 in Madrid reads.
This will also change NATO's approach to the Republic of Moldova, not only in terms of political support, but also in practical terms. In Chisinau, the government is already trying to take steps to establish a series of military ties with Western states. There is no talk of arms purchases, only of modernizing the old ones, of Soviet origin.
“We are not arming ourselves, we are modernizing. We have Soviet-type equipment, produced in the 60s and 70s, tailored to the strategies of the twentieth century, but the modernization plan of the National Army provides for re-equipping the army by 2030 “, said the Secretary of State with the Ministry of Defense, Valeriu Mija, in a TV show on TVR Moldova.
A change in the balance of forces
The Republic of Moldova needs weapons primarily to strike the right balance of forces domestically. On 11% of its territory, in the Transnistrian separatist region, there is both an occupation army - the Russian one, with a strength of about 1,700 soldiers - and Transnistrian paramilitary forces with a total strength of 8,000 people. They are equipped with superior weapons, and the ammunition depot in Cobasna serves as a supply base.
On the other hand, the Army of the Republic of Moldova has only light and poorly equipped infantry. The Republic of Moldova has no tanks, no fighter aircraft and no warships. In other words, the military resilience of the Republic of Moldova is extremely low.
Moreover, in the 30 years of existence of this state, Russia has made sure, with the help of political leaders in Chisinau, that the army of the Republic of Moldova stays weak. It all started in 1994, during the Agrarian era, by introducing an article in the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova that enshrined the country's neutrality.
But neutrality shouldn’t have meant the lack of training and maintenance of the army. Examples in this respect are Switzerland, and also the new guest members Finland and Sweden, the latter with a recognized neutrality of about 200 years.
However, the promoted narrative has always been that the Republic of Moldova does not need an army because it has not fought anyone since the war in Transnistria and it could not cope with any external attack anyway.
In fact, Russia keeps dwelling on such narratives via its proxies in Tiraspol. After the inclusion of the Republic of Moldova in the final declaration of the Madrid summit and the statements of the Secretary of State for Defense, Valeriu Mija, the separatist leaders in Tiraspol were quick to show up on the biggest Russian stations with alarmist statements.
“Modernize against whom, against Romania, with which they already have common border patrols? There is a legislative basis, according to which there can be military and police units of any state on the territory of Moldova. In fact, Moldova has today opened its NATO gates at legislative level. For Transnistria, this is an obvious threat”, the Foreign Minister of the unrecognized government of Tiraspol, Vitali Ignatiev, said last Thursday on the Russian state television channel Rossyia 24.
The statement issued by the separatist authorities in Tiraspol, the day after the moment in Madrid, on June 30, mirrors the one on March 4, the day after the Republic of Moldova submitted its application for EU membership, on March 3.
Concerted NATO-EU aid
On the other hand, Chisinau realizes that in the event of Russia succeeding in southern Ukraine, its security is imminently threatened, and Russian officials have already voiced their intention not to stop in Ukraine, but to go further and settle accounts with those who “are oppressing the Russian-speaking population in Transnistria”.
Both NATO and the EU have understood this, which is why immediately after the NATO summit in Madrid, the European Council adopted a decision to provide assistance under the EU Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace (IcSP), worth € 40 million, to the Armed Forces of the Republic of Moldova. This is an aid bigger than the Republic of Moldova’s annual defense budget, which stands at about 35 million euros.
The EU thus wants to strengthen the capabilities of the logistics, mobility, command and control, cyber defense, unmanned aerial reconnaissance and tactical communications units of the Moldovan Armed Forces by providing non-lethal equipment, supplies and relevant services, including training in the use of equipment.
Last year, the United States also provided 5 million USD in aid to the Moldovan Army.
Romania, the main promoter of the Republic of Moldova at the EU and NATO
Before the NATO summit, Moldovan Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatii visited Romania on June 7, so Romania became the ambassador and main source of lobbying for the Republic of Moldova with both the EU and NATO.
Moreover, the increase in the number of US troops in Romania to almost 8,000 soldiers and auxiliary personnel, especially in the area of the Kogalniceanu military base in Dobrogea, will automatically include the Republic of Moldova under the extended NATO security umbrella.
The inclusion of the Black Sea as an area of increased interest to NATO, as well as of Romania as a pivot at the Black Sea in the eastern flank of NATO, will be an additional guarantee for the security of the Republic of Moldova. Last but not least, the fact that over one million citizens of the Republic of Moldova also have Romanian citizenship makes Bucharest even more attentive to Chisinau’s security needs.
Therefore, in terms of security, the Republic of Moldova is now entering perhaps the fastest period in its three decades of existence against the background of the Russian military aggression in the neighboring country. A maximum that the Republic of Moldova can achieve as a state outside the strongest military alliance in the world.
