The Russian independent press reports that Russian doctors, teachers, civil servants and builders are being sent to the occupied territories of Ukraine to prepare “the union with Russia”. Meanwhile, Western sanctions are hitting the Russian economy and the well-being of the population, experts say. President Putin, however, continues to blackmail Europe with cold in the winter and famine.
ISTORIES: “Half of the money sent by the EU is used by Putin for war”.
Could sanctions put an end to the war and change the political regime in Russia?
Istories.media discussed this issue with the finance expert Maxim Mironov, a professor with the IE Business School.
“People will lose their jobs and there will be no other jobs for them.”
- Can the western sanctions stop the war?
- Sanctions work. Many branches of the Russian economy are faced with a deep crisis, and in some sectors the situation is almost critical. For example, in May, car sales fell by 83.5%. In addition to the massive layoffs and non-payment of wages in the automotive industry, there will be a crisis in many other areas. The automotive industry is a big buyer of steel, lead, rubber, parts and so on. People will lose their jobs and there will be no other jobs for them. Most Russian citizens have no savings, so the sudden decline in living standards will occur immediately after the layoffs.
- But how will hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens losing their jobs and money stop the war?
- I do not know the exact mechanism, because sanctions are not a military force. That is, they do not directly kill people, but they fundamentally worsen, not only in the short term, the potential of the Russian economy - to produce weapons, to pay salaries, to build the budget. In April, there was already a budget deficit. If you have a budget deficit and you cannot borrow money on the market, and Russia is currently disconnected from all markets, then you will have to cut salaries. Soon there will be a need to pay unemployment benefits, there will be social tensions.
In four months, Russia has practically consumed the entire reserve of modern missiles, a lot of tanks have been damaged, etc. Replacing these weapons will be very difficult, because the required production capacity does not exist. If Uralvagonzavod [a giant arms company] operated non-stop, it could produce several dozens of tanks a year. You can't fight with money, you need weapons. No one will deliver weapons to Russia and Russia cannot produce it itself. The old T-62 tanks from the 1960s are already back in use. If you don't have access to imported components, you can't produce good weapons.
All these factors will make the maintenance of the war more and more difficult. But what will it do directly - whether people will take to the streets, or unpaid wages, or the lack of tanks? Something could influence.
-According to the latest data, Russia is spending approximately one billion rubles per hour for this war, which is 21 billion per day. And money is not running out.
-21 billion per day – it’s even less than the EU pays for the Russian fuels. So, Russia spends some 400 million Euro per day, and the EU pays Russia 700-800 million Euro daily. Half of the money sent by the EU is spent by Putin on this war.
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- When are the Russian citizens going to feel the effects of the war and of the sanctions? Delayed pension payment, lack of goods in stores?
- The Russians are already feeling them, but of course not very strongly yet, there are no catastrophic consequences. Some goods have already disappeared from stores. Car sales have fallen five to six times. IKEA and a lot of clothing brands have left Russia. The disappearance of the goods is already visible.
Unemployment will become visible in autumn, because when the companies left, to make sure the management would not be arrested, they have kept paying salaries for a while. But you can't pay them off indefinitely. I think the layoffs will begin in July-August. I think that then some oil price restrictions will start, and there will be problems with the budget.
What matters the most is whether the western countries will pay Putin for oil and gas. So far, with record fuel prices, and even with discounts, Putin can build a budget with a very low deficit.
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VERSTKA.MEDIA: Russia is sending doctors, teachers and civil servants to the occupied territories in Ukraine
Recently, there have been reports that Russia is sending specialists to the occupied territories of Ukraine: the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Doctors, teachers, builders and civil servants are going there. Verstka wrote about the purpose of these “trips”, who accepts them and why Russia is trying to populate Ukrainian cities with its citizens.
Vadim Cerneaiev [changed name] lives in Nijnii Novgorod and has taught history in school for 15 years. He recalls how in June 2022, he received a proposal to go and work, together with a group of colleagues, in “the south-western territories”.
The proposal came from the school principal, without pressure and threats. “They proposed us to go on a kind of trip to have an exchange of experience, the teacher says. They invited teachers, method specialists. I think that at first to prepare the local staff for the new school year, and later, they would have probably convinced them to stay”. During the talk with the principal no mention was made of payment. Subsequently, teachers said the payment would have been some 7-8 thousand rubles per day (approximately 130 Euro). “It is low to lure people with money”, the teacher says. But in the context of the worsening economic situation, teachers may fall into this trap.” Verstka also wrote that teachers who are sent “to the south-western territories” are paid eight thousand rubles a day. If this information is true, it turns out that their salary exceeds the amount that teachers receive in Russia. […] Cherneaev himself refused to go, because “the purpose of the military actions is false”, Russia has “an aggressive foreign policy” and is waging an imperial war “with the aim of seizing and expanding its influence in certain territories”.
Russia's exact interest in recruiting people to work in Ukrainian cities is unknown. It is possible that one of the causes is the fact that local specialists refuse to collaborate with the new “leaders”. According to media reports, in Kherson, many teachers do not want to work with the regional and city administrations that have links with the Russian military.
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Only teachers from Russian regions are called to work in Ukraine. No such announcement has been made in Moscow and Petersburg. In the big cities, teachers have a more stable financial situation.
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Before teachers started being recruited, Russian doctors had been sent to DPR and LPR. News about this was heard as early as spring.
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The Kremlin-loyal press writes that doctors go to work in Ukraine as volunteers, for free. At the same time, advertisements offering contracts can be found on the Internet. Verstka found on social media calls for “doctors of all specialties to go to Donbass to work in the newly liberated territories”.
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Civil servants are also sent to the Donbass, Vedomosti wrote on June 21. The recruitment of “servants, deputies and activists” who want to work in the self-proclaimed republics is done through the governors’ administrations.
For now, there is talk of unofficial travel. Those who agree to go are promised promotion. According to the publication's sources, Russian human resources are being hired to “prepare a possible union with Russia”, which may take place at the end of the year.
Builders are also invited to Donbass. The administrations of Voronezh, Penza and Nishegorodsk have announced that specialists and equipment are being sent to the region to rebuild schools, hospitals, kindergartens and roads. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Husnullin has stated that works have already begun in Mariupol.
GRANIRU: Let’s stop being afraid
Vitalii Portnikov writes on Graniru about the West’s fear of Putin’s blackmail and threats
Vladimir Putin decided to remind the whole world that he is not just an assassin, but also a blackmailer - until the war with Ukraine he knew best how to blackmail. But now, against the background of murder and destruction, Putin's blackmailing looks even more sinister - because everyone must understand that it is not just words and threats, that nothing will stop this man.
The threat of nuclear war with NATO. Putin has already seen that this is what the West fears the most. What will happen if Russia attacks a NATO country? Will the alliance have to respond and thus create a real risk of exchanging nuclear attacks? Or will it try to “settle the crisis” thus demonstrating the inability of the civilized world to resist the Russian readiness to “go to heaven” along with the entire population? The fact that the European Commission has revised its transit rules for the Kaliningrad region has shown, once again, that the West is willing to surrender to Russian threats, if these threats concern not the territory of Ukraine, but the NATO countries themselves.
The cold blackmail. Stopping gas supplies via Nord-Stream-1 is already causing panic. What will happen if Russia does not resume deliveries? What can European states expect in the winter? How will they heat up? What will happen to the economy, to prices? The blackmail works, as evidenced by Canada's decision to return the sanctioned turbine to Germany and repair a few more. The decision was publicly supported by the White House, because the US is also afraid of the European winter without Russian gas. And Putin? Putin, if he wants, can leave Europe in the cold no matter the turbines. He has already seen the fear in the eyes of potential victims.
The famine blackmail. This is Putin’s favorite.
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Putin managed to get the most important thing – fear. The west is afraid of war, cold and famine. Fear, however, is the blackmailer’s main ally. When you are afraid, you start looking for ways to “reconcile”, to reach a compromise with the blackmailer, and therefore you give the aggressor whatever they ask for and more. They will not stop blackmailing. They will invent new opportunities. They will always blackmail you as long as you live in fear.
We should stop being afraid.
