The last round of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as part of the war launched by Moscow took place in March and did not produce any results. For over eight months, the negotiation process is in a deadlock, neither party being willing to accept peace at any cost: both Kyiv and Moscow want victory.
The negotiations in March – a classical example of the deaf talking to the mute
At the end of several rounds of negotiations held in March between official delegations or Foreign Ministers, it became clear that both parties have a different understanding of the nature and goals of this military conflict. Each time, the Russian side told the press about its strenuous efforts to convince Ukraine to lay down its weapons willingly, not to return to its nuclear status and produce weapons of mass destruction, to maintain its neutrality, which means renouncing the idea of joining NATO. For its part, Ukraine spoke of humanitarian corridors, the evacuation of civilians, ceasefire, the withdrawal of the Russian army from Ukraine. At one point, Kyiv even suggested Russia should finance the reconstruction of the Ukrainian state.
The arguments brought by Russia perfectly fit the logic of propaganda narratives about demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine, used to justify the “special military operation”. The Kremlin continued to persuade Russians back home that Russia still offers Ukraine a chance to renounce “militarization” as a state policy and “Nazi ideology”, hoping to thus buy more time to defeat Ukraine, a country it was confident would surrender sooner or later.
At the same time, from the very beginning Kyiv was determined to resist the Russian aggression, but accepted to take part in negotiations in order to solve some of the problems that required talking directly to Russia, such as evacuating civilians blocked in a number of settlements that were caught in the crossfire. Besides, negotiations allowed Ukraine to buy more time to regroup and consolidate its defenses.
After dealing with stringent matters and driving off Russian troops from northern and northeastern Ukraine, Kyiv no longer accepted to negotiate for the sake of negotiating, and switched from the idea of resisting to winning this war.
The peace process in Ukraine reached a stalemate after Kyiv demanded security guarantees from Western countries, but also from Russia. The initiative was destined to fail from the very start, given the behavior of Russian troops, which launched attacks as talks between the delegations were unfolding. The Russian forces bombed numerous civilian objectives in Ukrainian settlements and committed war crimes, which Kyiv and international experts are currently investigating.
Russia doesn’t want peace, it wants to destroy Ukraine
Ukrainian authorities know very well that Moscow doesn’t want a lasting peace in Ukraine or to engage in a truthful dialogue with Kyiv. Russia doesn’t see Ukraine as a partner it can talk to as equals. Russia’s objective, according to the arguments presented by Vladimir Putin on the morning of February 24, when he announced the invasion, was to purge the neighbor state of Nazis, meaning political opponents, to demilitarize the country and install a puppet regime. Some Ukrainian political experts have warned that the Kremlin leader will never sit down and negotiate with Volodymyr Zelensky, because he thinks this would be beneath him. “Putin wants global glory, he wants his influence to expand across the world”, Ukrainian military analyst Oleg Zhdanov believes. And in this particular worldview, Zelensky is “too small” to be included.
After the Kremlin leader signed the decree for the annexation of four Ukrainian regions to the Russian Federation on September 30, Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine is willing to discuss peace only after Putin is gone. Zelensky recalled the war crimes committed by the Russian army on the territory of Ukraine, the bombing and destruction of critical infrastructure, as well as Russia’s appetite for annexing new territories. All that are indicative of Russia’s refusal to get involved in genuine peace negotiations.
Kyiv’s reaction to the West pressing Ukraine to seek a peaceful settlement
In early November, The Washington Post wrote about Ukraine having been advised by the US administration to show readiness to take part in peace negotiations with Russia. The recommendation follows as the US State Department said Moscow is escalating the war and is unwilling to commit to serious peace talks.
A few days after the information reached the press, Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said Russia is still open to negotiate with Ukraine and that negotiations will factor in ongoing developments. “We have never ruled out negotiations. We are prepared to negotiate, of course, depending on the reality on the ground”, Zakharova went on to say.
In response, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on Twitter that Russian generals need to “freeze” the conflict, they need to take a break, and that the Kremlin is desperate to sign any kind of agreement, no matter how small, that should recognize part of its occupied territories. “Does Ukraine need that? We continue to liberate our territories”, Pololyak also wrote.
President Zelensky has shown he is slightly more prone to negotiate, on one major condition: “We have not closed any doors. I said we are willing to negotiate with Russia, but with a different Russia. With that country that truly wants peace. With that Russia that recognizes it is an invader… They must give us back our lands, our rights, our freedom and our money”, Zelensky said after in early October he signed a decree banning any negotiation with Russia as long as Vladimir Putin is in power.
Normally, the West wants peace in Ukraine because the war translates into economic, political and social consequences for everyone. Kyiv, however, has told its partners it will not accept peace at any cost.
Ukrainian society wants to see Russia on its knees
First and foremost, Ukrainian politicians heed the requests and views of Ukrainian citizens. Due to their resistance, Ukraine managed to liberate a large part of its territory. The discovery of new atrocities committed by the Russian army amidst Moscow’s escalation and nuclear threats, has infuriated Ukrainian society, prompting people to seek not just victory in this war, but the humiliation of Russia. From the very outset, Kyiv has compared Putin’s Russia to Hitler’s Germany, in its resistance-boosting messages, also comparing this war to the Great Patriotic War for the Defense of the Fatherland. Drawn into this spiral of political communication, based on collective memory and hatred towards Nazism and invaders, Ukrainian society expects nothing less than a triumph. Hitler’s Germany was defeated by occupying Berlin, while daily references to this comparison reinforce the idea that the war in Ukraine must end with Russia’s surrender and Putin’s “suicide”. Ukrainian media provides plenty of stories about “deputinization” and Ukraine’s contribution to turning Russia to democracy once the war is won.
These narratives have boosted grassroots resistance, helping Ukrainians to overcome war fatigue. Ukrainian society opposes any peace negotiation under terms dictated by the aggressor, it is against peace at any cost or any talk about an agreement signed with Russia until all Ukrainian territories are liberated.
According to a survey carried out this summer, 89% of Ukrainians want peace with Russia, provided, however, that all territories are liberated, including Crimea. Additionally, Ukrainian citizens say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has convinced them that NATO accession must be achieved soon. Public support for this foreign policy objective has reached 73%, an all-time high.
Possible negotiations for an impossible peace
It is equally possible that, in the near future, following pressure from the international community, new rounds of peace talks should follow, involving the delegations of Russia and Ukraine. Peace negotiations are still on the table, although they are highly unlikely to be successful. Long-lasting peace seems an unlikely goal for the current negotiation process, considering both parties hope to defeat the enemy on the battlefield. A break would allow Russia to regroup and resupply, only to resume hostilities, but Ukraine is unwilling to give Moscow this opportunity in the context of liberating new territories.
