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Joe Biden and Xi Jinping agreed, among other things, to establish a direct line of contact. It is a step forward in the bilateral relationship, after years of tensions.
After years of tension, there are signs of thawing in the US-China relationship.
Two years ago, before Putin invaded Ukraine, I was writing in Veridica about the China-Russia relationship giving the shivers, especially in Washington, with regard to a potential simultaneous Ukraine-Taiwan invasion. The Chinese, however, were in no hurry. They started pushing the nationalistic, sometimes bellicose, rhetoric vis-à-vis the West, but Xi Jinping's Beijing has so far made no concrete gesture towards Taiwan.
9 months ago, a strange flying object crossed the skies of America. It was actually a Chinese espionage balloon that in its collapse, after being targeted by the US military, brought down with it Washington's already tenuous relationship with Beijing.
Almost a year ago, when the White House leader was meeting with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, the relationship between Beijing and Washington was much the same. Circumstances and perspectives differ now, and perhaps that has led to somewhat more moderate public positions. This was visible, actually, in the Chines media’s change of tone before the meeting in San Francisco , but also in Beijing’s reaction after Joe Biden reiterated that he considered Xi a dictator. The American leader's comment was censored for the Chinese public, and the foreign ministry in Beijing criticized the statement, but did not mention Biden, and said through its spokesperson that there will always be people – without specifying who, though - who will try to damage the Chinese-American relations, but they will not succeed.
Economic issues are forcing China to be more careful with the US, one of its main economic partners
The Nov. 15 meeting was prepared in advance, preceded by meetings of senior Biden administration officials as early as this summer, and last month's visit by China's top foreign policy official to Washington is not to be overlooked.
On both sides, the claims, at least at the declarative level, are high. In preparation for the San Francisco meeting, China put several red lines on the table, including Taiwan, democracy and human rights. When he met with Biden, Xi did not forget about Taiwan and sent an ambiguous message, which can be read both as an assurance that a war would not break out and as a threat that Beijing’s patience has its limits : "peace is good, but at some point, we have to reach a general settlement”. Xi also asked the Americans to stop supplying arms to Taiwan and to support the "reunification" with it.
But is China in a position to pound the table now that its economy is experiencing an unprecedented slowdown? This year alone, foreign direct investment fell by $11.8 billion, the biggest loss in 20 years, and youth unemployment topped 21 percent in June. A freeze in relations with the US, which is among Beijing's top trading partners with more than $750 billion in trade, would further roil the Chinese economy.
The economic problems arise in the context in which Xi is in full process of "cleaning" his own backyard on the principle of "who is not with us, is against us". I am of course referring here to the foreign and defense ministers. Both were dismissed this year, and their portfolios have remained vacant until now. The former premier, Li Keqiang, who has since died at the age of 68, had been removed as early as the congress. The foreign minister was dismissed in the summer following an affair. Qin Gang was accused of having an extramarital affair when he was ambassador to the US. Since July, however, since he was removed from the top of Chinese diplomacy, nobody has heard anything about him. For the dismissal of the defense minister, the government in Beijing did not even bother to give any explanation.
China wants a new world order in which to play the role of savior, but cannot manage a crisis on its own border
In addition to the mentioned economic and political problems, which are not at all negligible, Xi Jinping now has to deal with the rebel movements on the border with Myanmar. Following the coup two years ago, when Aung Sang Suu Kyi was removed from power, the country neighboring China is ruled by a military junta that has lost control of a strategic city on the border with China. Violent fighting took place in Shan State. This is a region through which a high-speed train is supposed to pass, part of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Beijing's calls for a ceasefire have gone unheeded. We are already talking about tens of thousands of people fleeing for fear of being shot. Let's not forget that the oil and gas pipelines between the two states pass through the same region. The Three Brotherhood Alliance, one of Myanmar's most powerful ethnic armed alliances, is behind the coordinated attack on several military outposts in northern Shan State, on the country's eastern border with China, and has captured the border town of Chin Shwe Haw. The reason? Defending territory against Myanmar military incursions, eradicating the "oppressive military dictatorship" and combating online fraud along the border.
As early as two years ago, Beijing indirectly supported the Naypyidaw coup. For example, China, which has veto power in the United Nations Security Council, blocked a resolution condemning the coup in 2021. Beijing said at the time that international sanctions or pressure would only worsen the situation in Myanmar. But it's no secret that Beijing has long played an important role in protecting this Southeast Asian country from Western influence. For China, Myanmar is a strategic space for the economy. Along with Russia, China has repeatedly shielded Myanmar from UN criticism of its military crackdown on the Rohigya Muslim minority.
Xi Jinping talks about a new world order in which China has a say. He brokered an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Regarding Ukraine, the country would lean more towards the mediator position and maybe in the same logic it does not take a decisive step in Myanmar. In the new world architecture designed in Beijing, China is portrayed as the universal savior with pacifist solutions to all problems. What is, of course, glossed over is what this universal "savior" really is: an autocratic regime that relies on tools familiar to those who have lived under a communist regime, ie excessive surveillance, censorship or political repression.
A good relationship with China can help Americans better manage the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East
On the other hand, 2024 is an election year for Joe Biden and China is looming as an election issue. Therefore, the White House leader would have no reason to change his speech towards Beijing, whether it is about additional controls on the sale of US technology products, support for Taiwan or criticism of China on human rights. At the same time, however, the American public does not want an open conflict with China ; 78% of Americans think avoiding a war with China is "very important." Hence the commitment to maintain open lines of communication and stability in the US-China relationship. And in the same key, a survey conducted by an American think tank in 24 countries reveals that the for the public opinion, the American leader is winning the “battle” with Xi.
Since Xi's last visit to the US, 6 years ago, Washington's trust in the Beijing leader has steadily declined, and Xi's close relationship with Vladimir Putin, tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and the spy balloon crisis haven’t exactly contributed to its mending. On the other hand, the United States also needs a good relationship with China. The Americans are already engaged in handling two crises, in Ukraine and the Middle East, and it is clear that they do not need new headaches in Asia. In addition, China also matters in the two crises mentioned. So far, its support for Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine has been more political, and Xi may even have tempered Putin by making it clear that he was not to use nuclear weapons. However, if Beijing decided, for example, to massively deliver weapons to Russia, this could create serious problems for Ukraine. In the Middle East, China has a good relationship with Iran, and in San Francisco Biden even asked Xi to use his influence to convince Tehran not to launch, through its proxy forces, attacks against American targets in the region - already targeted by dozens of fires in Iraq and Syria.
Establishing a line of communication, the main gain of the Biden-Xi meeting
Xi Jinping's presence in the US and his meeting with Joe Biden make it clear that Beijing is willing to rewarm its relationship with Washington to a mutually acceptable level. It is an attitude that is mirrored by Washington's desire to have a dialogue with China, at least to prevent - as Joe Biden also said - turning the competition between the two powers into a conflict. It is relevant that, during the meeting, it was agreed to resume military communication, cut off by Beijing after Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan last August. Likewise, the decision to establish a direct Biden-Xi line is an important one. For the American public, faced with a deadly epidemic of opioid addiction, the agreement to reduce the production of fentanyl also matters.
No one expected spectacular results from the meeting in San Francisco. It was perhaps more about feeling the pulse, on both sides. Until we learn more about the ins and outs of this summit, the most important step was summed up by Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to China: “I do think we’ve made some progress in reconnecting the two governments and establishing these leadership channels, which we didn’t have, frankly, a year ago.”
