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Elections in Belarus were anything but free, with no opposition candidates or independent observers, and a government disinformation campaign designed to instill fear. The opposition managed, nonetheless, to get its message to at least part of the electorate, and in spite governmental efforts, turnout was lower than expected.
Elections à la Lukashenko: arrests, fake saboteurs and pro-Russian observers
Before every election, the Lukashenko regime held a wave of repression against potential protesters. This practice is called “the preventive detention”, when a person is arrested for fake reasons in order to be kept in prison during some important event. Such arrests were made even before and during the World hockey championship held in Minsk in 2014 – when there was a warm up in the relations of the Lukashenko regime and the West.
So it’s no surprise that this year the repression got even harder. On January 23, the regime enforcement agencies raided the properties of people who allegedly have anti-Lukashenko sentiments. That’s how the “election campaign” in Belarus started.
Also, one has to note that the Lukashenko regime is notorious for forcing people to take part in the “election” in order to create a picture of a happy nation electing their political representatives for propaganda. Many – including state employees and students – are forced to vote early under the threat that they would be fired, thrown out of the dormitories or expelled from the universities and colleges. While in the city of Rahačoŭ, the administration of the public district hospital threatened to throw out the patients who wouldn’t vote. The early voting system is used to make the election frauds easier and that is why all the districts compete in the numbers of early voters. Against this background the fact that this year the number of early voters exceeded 41% isn’t surprising.
On February 16, 2024 the Lukashenko regime propaganda reported about the detention of a group of “saboteurs” in Lelčycy district – not far from the border with Ukraine – the previous night. The special forces of the KGB conducted the alleged operation, and 2 Ukrainian citizens and one Belarusian were arrested. According to the propaganda, they planned terrorist acts against the regime and were acting under the direct supervision of the Security Service of Ukraine. However, the independent investigative project “Biełaruski Hajun” found out that the alleged “saboteurs” were the people involved in illegal cross-border drug trafficking.
Such fake operations are typical for the regime before elections – Lukashenko himself usually speaks about the “attempts of foreign special services to destabilise the situation in Belarus” and “influence the will of Belarusian people”. In the previous years, the propaganda told about “terrorists preparing the weapons in the forest”, “a SUV with the weapons, breaking through the border from Ukraine”, “foreign special services agents, preparing the mass riots” etc.
No independent observers from OSCE were invited to monitor the elections this time. There were “observation missions” from CIS and SCO, having traditionally praised the Lukashenko regime for “transparent and fully democratic elections”. However, the head of the Central electoral commission of the regime in Minsk announced the presence of 23 “independent observers” from EU member-states. The regime propaganda has thus far presented only 2 of them to the public.
One is Krzysztof Tołwiński – a former Polish MP, and the head of political formation “Front”. He is openly stating his pro-Putin views on his website: “The American military and financial complex is the beneficiary of our armament. The political gangsters from the USA will have no scruples in gambling with our blood, leading us to poverty and the creation of the “Slavic cauldron” in our territory… The way out of these threats is to take political actions to shape friendly and partnership-based political and economic cooperation with the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. Basing the security guarantees of the borders installed after 1945 on a friendly policy with the Russian Federation, especially with regard to the so-called Western borders”.
Belarusian investigative journalists have found 13 more “independent observers” from the EU – mostly openly pro-Russian activists and marginal politicians, some of them having problems with the law in their homeland.
The regime’s intimidation tactics: either Lukashenko or war
On February 20, 2024 Lukashenko organized a big meeting with the command and high officers of all the regime enforcement agencies and military. He dressed-up in the uniform of the supreme commander (which was designed for him and has the regime logo on the shoulder straps, as Lukashenko was just a private during his military service, so basically he has no rank) and for more than 3 hours talked about the “threats from the collective West” and the “importance of being ready to fight back”.
As usual, he has mentioned two states he considers the main enemies. First of all, of course, the USA: “The appetites and activity of the collective West will be only growing. Washington and its allies will continue to expand NATO. The situation is very favorable for them. To put it bluntly, without too much diplomacy, almost all European leaders have become U.S. subjects. There is no doubt about whose policy and whose interests dominate the European Union”. The second “enemy” is Poland: “Warsaw is trying to recruit high-ranking Belarusian officials who will be able to replace our current opposition leaders. They understand – they are not able to turn Belarus around, to implement the scenario of a colour revolution and a military march here in Belarus. They will not be able to carry out an armed invasion. We are following this process; we see their approaches to leaders in Belarus both in the military and civilian spheres”.
Finally, he once again used the manipulation scheme “either Lukashenko or war”, intimidating his listeners and Belarusian citizens: “They want to drag us into this war by hook or by crook. We have some classified information on our hands. We know exactly what the chief of the General Staff of a major NATO member state thinks about this: We failed to drag Belarus in the conflict. Minsk's active participation in the war would have undermined the regime in Belarus and hurt A. Lukashenko. This opportunity is still open”
This is to be considered as the final accord of the so-called “election campaign”, directly showing who is the main Lukashenko’s audience he relies upon. Telling fairy-tales about the aggressive West to his security agencies has one clear goal – consolidate everyone around the dictator in order to preserve the current state of affairs and prevent the situation from worsening even more for the regime in whole and its servicemen in particular. If during previous “election campaigns” the regime tried to present itself from the positive side and propose some benefits to different classes of population, this time they didn't even pretend to be nice to people. Everything they could offer is repression and intimidation. The message is clear: we have no more carrots, there’s only a stick for the Belarusians.
The opposition trolled the regime with an AI candidate and hijacked billboards
Against the background of total repression and impossibility to take real part even in the imitation of an electoral campaign, the Belarusian democratic forces had to think out a way to draw the attention of people from the regime’s agenda.
First of all, the democratic forces of Belarus, lead by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, refused to call the process “elections”, opting instead for “biazvybary” (directly meaning “no-elections”).
Not that free and fair elections would have any impact on Lukashenko’s hold on power: the National Assembly virtually has no power. It is essential to note that after 1996 the politics in Belarus has been concentrated around only one person, that’s why the personalities from the “National Assembly” are completely unknown for Belarusians, as these people perform only formal representative functions, leave alone the members of the “local councils”.
Secondly, in order to underline the lack of democratic candidates, the Belarusian democratic forces have come up with a modern alternative to them. “We've created a virtual candidate, Jaś, using AI to interact with people & answer questions. Frankly, he’s more real than any candidate the regime has to offer. And the best part? He cannot be arrested!” – Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya wrote on her X account. One can talk to Jaś Haspadar and get to know his political programme in the application “New Belarus”, created by independent Belarusian IT-specialists.
Jaś is presented as an ordinary Belarusian – a Minsk-based factory worker, whose wife is a school teacher. His political programme includes different points, starting from release of political prisoners up to local issues like green infrastructure. There were no special electoral activities proposed to support Jaś Haspadar in order to avoid people being arrested for that – this will be definitely appreciated as a protest activity by the regime. The campaign was aimed at drawing attention to both political and social problems existing in Belarus and the inability of the regime to solve them.
On February 24, 2024, at 15:00, more than 2,000 big advertising screens all over Belarus simultaneously started to show the statement of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to Belarusians: We said: “No to dictatorships”, we said: “No to war”. Today we say: “No – to fake elections”. We know how to fight. We know how to unite. We know how to win. We will not stop until everyone is free. Changes in Belarus are the task of each of us. This message from the opposition was displayed thanks to an operation of BELPOL – the association of former law enforcement agencies officers, who joined the Belarusian democratic forces after the 2020 election – timed to mark not only the 2-years anniversary of the start of Russian full-scale war against Ukraine, but also the day before the so-called “single election day” in Belarus.
“These so-called elections are nothing more than a circus show. It’s not even entertaining. All of the regime’s candidates deliver the same performances, as debates are nonexistent - they’re not allowed to hold differing views. This facade will fool no one.” – Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya wrote 2 days before the election day. It seems she was quite right: according to the insiders, on February 25, 2024, the very “single election day”, even in Minsk – the capital city of Belarus with around 2 million residents – there were polling stations with less than 10 voters.
