Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the declaration of martial law in Kyiv interrupted the traditional electoral cycles, so parliamentary and presidential elections have been postponed to a future period of peace.
The decision to postpone the elections is used by Russian propaganda to question the legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelensky and divide Ukrainian society from within. For now, the majority of Ukrainians are in favor of postponing the elections, but their numbers are dwindling and a growing number of voices critical of Volodymyr Zelensky started to be heard.
Most Ukrainians agree with postponing the elections because of the war, but not indefinitely. Zelensky, accused of showing authoritarian traits
Despite the multiple explanations brought by the Ukrainian authorities about the impossibility of organizing parliamentary or presidential elections, because of Russia’s full-scale invasion, this topic creates certain dissensions within society. The internal divide is not generated by the Ukrainians’ desire to participate in elections in the midst of the war with Russia but by the fear of potential anti-democratic tendencies, caused by the lack of a government rotation. This, in fact, explains why Volodymyr Zelensky resorted to a series of government reshuffles, mimicking electoral rotation, which is impossible during the war. Unlike Russia and Belarus, led by the same political leaders for several decades in a row, since 1991, Ukrainians have elected five presidents, and one of them, Viktor Yanukovych, was forced to flee the country during the Euromaidan period for his pro-Russian and anti-European position.
Ukrainians understand that elections cannot be held during wartime. According to polls, 67% of Ukrainians are against holding elections during the war , considering that the defense of the state is a priority now. However, this percentage has been going down - in October 2023, the number of Ukrainians who did not agree with the idea of elections in the midst of the war with Russia stood at 81% . The survey conducted by the International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv in February this year, shows that the number of respondents who claim that elections will be necessary at some point despite military action has increased. For now, the "anti-election" majority is thinning by the month, but it continues to be a majority.
There is some concern about the future of democracy and the rule of law after the end of the war, and some politicians have complained of growing anti-democratic tendencies in Ukraine. For example, the mayor of Kyiv, former boxer Vitali Kliciko, accused President Volodymyr Zelensky in December 2023 of destroying Ukrainian democracy. "At some point we will be no different from Russia , where everything depends on the whim of one person," Kliciko said, noting the pressure exerted by central authorities on local councils. There were other statements by some mayors or local leaders, which noted the excessive concentration of power in the hands of Zelensky. In the context of postponing the elections due to the war, the divide between the local and the national elites, which are fighting over limited resources, has become much more visible.
Russian propaganda accuses Zelensky of not seeking peace and not wanting elections in order to stay in power
The topic of indefinitely postponed elections is used by Russian state media to convince the public in the ex-Soviet space, as well as in the West, that President Volodymyr Zelensky will remain in power for many years to come. Therefore, according to pro-Kremlin propaganda, the war in Ukraine is in the interests of the Ukrainian elites who are getting rich and will continue to rule, taking advantage of the martial law that bans elections.
Russian media are accusing Zelensky of refusing to negotiate a peace with Russia, which would have allowed him “to not kill his people” and hold elections. At the same time, some Russian columnists write that the leader in Kyiv fears the elections, knowing that the people will no longer support him in the context of the army’s great discontent with the political elites in Kyiv, accused of "neo-Nazi manifestations".
In reality, Volodymyr Zelensky continues to be a president supported by Ukrainians, despite the decrease in the polls compared to 2022. The Ukrainian society, the political and economic elites have suffered a great deal because of the war. The infrastructure is destroyed, the state's debts are on the rise and most of the social spending depends on foreign loans. The economic potential of the state is shrinking. Big factories, refineries, businesses and civil infrastructure have been destroyed or seriously damaged. The Russian media seems to forget about the Kremlin's military intervention and Moscow's war crimes, blaming Zelensky for all the problems facing the Ukrainian people, as if there were no war in Ukraine.
A false narrative is being promoted on Russian-run social media and Telegram channels, according to which after May this year, Volodymyr Zelensky will no longer be legitimate, because his term expires. The meta-narrative of president Zelensky’s deligitimisation , strongly promoted by Russia, is developed with the help of press articles about a potential coup d'état in Kyiv, which would be organized by the military who want peace and aim to get rid of the "neo-Nazis in the leadership". Veridica wrote about a false narrative promoted on YouTube and Telegram about a third Maidan in Kyiv that could save the Ukrainian soldiers , stop the war and be a first step towards stability in Ukraine. The subject of "illegitimate" and "Nazi" elites will be one of the core false narratives of Russian propaganda this spring and summer.
Petro Poroshenko remains Volodymyr Zelensky's main political rival
The full-scale war launched by Russia against Ukraine in 2022 has greatly changed the domestic political life, but also citizens' perceptions towards democracy, governance, pluralism, the topic of security becoming increasingly important. Zelensky’s traditional opponent, former president Petro Poroshenko, the head of the "European Solidarity" parliamentary group, stood out in 2022 by refusing to criticize the political regime in Kyiv, saying that he would collaborate with the government for a while in order not to allow the state and the Ukrainian nation to disappear. Poroshenko recalled the military-political events a hundred years ago, when the Bolshevik troops managed to seize power in Kyiv, using the divide within the Ukrainian elites of that time. The Ukrainian People's Republic collapsed during the years of the civil war (1917-1920), being replaced by a socialist Soviet republic, created by Moscow on the territory of Ukraine.
In 2023-2024, Petro Poroshenko began to speak more and more harshly about Zelensky's team, accusing the president's entourage of incompetence, lack of strategic vision, and even collaboration with the FSB. Poroshenko's speech grew increasingly sour as issues regarding the Western deliveries of arms and ammunition became chronic and it became clear that the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive was a failure.
The former president blamed both the West and Kyiv, which have not been effective in persuading Western leaders to stand by the Ukrainian state in these difficult times. In 2024, Petro Poroshenko has criticized Prime Minister Denis Shmygal for mismanaging the Ukrainian wartime economy and defending some economic interests of Zelensky's friends.
These statements are broadcast by pro-Poroshenko television stations, including NV, Radio NV, Preamyi, Kanal 5. At the same time, the other national television stations all broadcast a daily program of several hours, funded by the authorities, to inform the population about the war-related developments . The opposition’s criticism is overshadowed by positive pro-Zelensky news, which is presented to the public as government efforts to combat the wartime fake-news phenomenon.
Oleksiy Arestovych: from a leader in Zelensky's team to an outsider of Ukrainian politics
For a period of time, one of the most publicized Ukrainian leaders was the adviser to the president, Oleksiy Arestovych. Dubbed Zelenskiy's wartime ideologue, Arestovych played an important role in Kyiv's strategic communications after the full-scale invasion began. In 2022, Arestovych managed to calm spirits and encourage resistance, talking about "ending the war by April" or about “Ukraine’s victory by fall."
The political divorce between Arestovych and Zelenskiy was seen by some political observers as a signal of a possible launch of a new political project in Kyiv, but this did not happen, and Arestovych has meanwhile fallen steeply in the polls. Ukrainian society was deeply disappointed by a series of statements by Zelensky's former adviser, termed as pro-Russian. For example, Arestovych stated live, in a TV show, that a residential block in the city of Dnipro was not hit by a Russian missile, it was hit by a Ukrainian one. It was just an assumption that was used by the Russian propaganda to build a series of false narratives about how "Kyiv is bombing its civilians." Other statements given by Oleksiy Arestovych, which may have a double meaning, have also been used by the Russian propaganda.
According to the latest survey, society's trust in Oleksiy Arestovych stands at only 11%, while the level of distrust is 83% . Ukrainians have said they trust Arestovych less than Yuriy Boiko, a pro-Russian leader who was meeting in Moscow with Putin in 2021 to discuss peace in Ukraine. Arestovych has been repeatedly criticized by both the Poroshenko-led opposition and Zelenskiy's team for fundamentally changing his speech on some topics such as a possible dialogue with Moscow or some concessions to be made by Kyiv. Also linked to Arestovych is the Ukrainians’ disappointment with statements about the war ending in a few months. As the one who uttered promises about a quick victory for Ukraine in the war, Arestovych is seen as a leader who’s lied to Ukrainians during the crisis.
Ukrainians trust the military more than politicians
According to polls, it’s not Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but Valery Zalujnyi, the former head of the Ukrainian army, who enjoys the greatest support from Ukrainians. Many political analysts in Kyiv see Zalujnyi as Zelenskiy's main opponent in the upcoming presidential elections. Successful counteroffensives in the fall of 2022 in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions earned Zalujnyi the fame of a top Western-type commander. On social media, Zalujnyi is referred to as a pro.
Zalujnyi’s dismissal and the appointment of Oleksandr Syrskyi in his place triggered explosive reactions on social media and in the press, from criticism of Zelenskiy for a decision categorized as thoughtless or at least not explained to society, to thanks to Zalujnyi for heroism. Many added "gratitude to the general" to their Facebook profile. It was a similar situation to the one after the defeat of Petro Poroshenko in the presidential elections of 2019. Then, the 25% of Ukrainians who voted for Poroshenko wrote on social media that they belonged to that quarter of society that supported professionalism, not actors.
Sociologists in Ukraine find that trust in Zelensky has dropped by 5% after Zalujnyi’s dismissal. Moreover, in terms of trust in political leaders, Zelenskiy ranks lower than Kirilo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence service. In mid-February this year, 94% of Ukrainians declared that they trusted Valery Zalujnyi, 66% Kirilo Budanov and 64% President Volodymyr Zelensky. Not far from Zelensky is another actor-turned-politician and volunteer, Serhiy Prytula, who enjoys the trust of 61% of citizens.
Postponing elections – the lesser evil in times of war
Political life in Ukraine during the war is very different from that in peacetime. In the name of national security and mobilization against the external enemy, the opposition is greatly diluted. The press - "the watchdog of democracy" - is somewhat less critical of the authorities, but without abandoning its mission, as evidenced by the investigations that are still being published and denounce corruption. There are no important electoral projects created as an alternative to Zelensky, and the pre-election discourse is absent in the public space.
At the same time, the decision made by the Ukrainian authorities seems to be the lesser evil. The war has displaced a good part of the population and caused the loss of almost a fifth of the territory, adding to which is the constant risk of bombing, which would endanger the people going to the polls. In addition, because of martial law, protests, rallies and strikes are prohibited, and criticism of the authorities (common in an election campaign) can be categorized as an action financed by Moscow with the aim of destabilizing the state. Given the lack of real political competition, also because of the current circumstances, elections at this point would not only be risky, but also lacking legitimacy.
