Poland as a Frontline Target in Russia’s Growing Sabotage Campaign

As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on with no clear end in sight, its hybrid warfare tactics have spread beyond the battlefield, targeting NATO's eastern flank in an escalating campaign of sabotage. Nowhere is this more evident than in Poland, where intelligence reports reveal a coordinated effort to disrupt infrastructure, sow discord, and undermine regional stability.

Through operations such as "Lucky Strike," attempts to sabotage courier planes, and the infiltration of critical sectors, Russia’s covert actions have pushed Poland into the spotlight as a frontline state in Moscow’s broader strategy to destabilize Europe.

Operation Lucky Strike: A Blueprint for Sabotage

Among the most audacious of Russia's recent operations in Poland was "Operation Lucky Strike," a covert Russian intelligence operation targeting various locations across Europe, including Poland. The operation aimed to create chaos through acts of sabotage and arson.

Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW) recently foiled a plot to ignite a catastrophic fire in Wrocław that could have endangered a nearby fuel depot holding 56 million liters of fuel. The suspect, a Ukrainian citizen identified as Serhiy S., was apprehended while attempting to flee the country. Evidence found on his phone, including a Russian pyrotechnics manual and detailed instructions for pro-Russian activities has drawn a direct link to Russian intelligence operations.

According to Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza, Serhiy admitted that his assignment—targeting construction stores and a paint factory—came from an online contact known as Alexei. Communicating over Telegram under the pseudonym “Lucky Strike,” Alexei recruited Serhiy with the promise of $4,000, half paid upfront and the rest upon completion of the attack. While Alexei remains unidentified, investigators believe he is connected to Russian or Belarusian intelligence networks.

ABW’s investigators uncovered a network of Telegram groups used to recruit saboteurs and coordinate operations. One such group, “Central Staff of Guerrilla Operations” previously advertised for organizers of protests and arsonists across Europe and the United States. Another group, named “Center for the Guerrilla Movement,” explicitly solicited intelligence on NATO-aligned targets, military installations, and logistical hubs in Ukraine and Europe. Posts signed by “Lucky Strike” appealed to supporters to aid Russia’s war effort, branding their activities as a righteous fight against "Nazis" in Ukraine and NATO.

These channels proliferate recruitment calls offering lucrative payouts for acts of sabotage. One post explicitly targeted an American-controlled paint factory in Wrocław, increasing the reward to $5,000. The ABW traced similar activity in Lublin, where 16 individuals were arrested for their involvement in propaganda, espionage, and sabotage efforts, all coordinated through Telegram.

Polish authorities have linked these plots to a broader campaign orchestrated by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). The ABW’s crackdown on these operations has prompted swift diplomatic repercussions, including the closure of the Russian consulate in Poznań and the expulsion of its personnel. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski issued a stern warning against Russia’s hybrid war, underscoring Poland’s readiness to escalate its response if necessary.

Incendiary Devices on Courier Planes: Escalating the Stakes

Russia’s sabotage efforts have also extended to international air logistics, a vital artery for modern economies. Polish authorities uncovered a plot to place incendiary devices on cargo planes operated by global courier companies such as DHL.

According to a detailed investigation by The New York Times, the devices were designed to ignite mid-flight, potentially causing catastrophic damage to the planes and their cargo. The plan targeted planes transporting medical supplies and military equipment to Ukraine, a direct attack on the supply chains supporting Kyiv’s war effort.

“Hostile activity carried out on behalf of the Russian Federation is increasingly taking the form of terrorist activities,” Poland’s domestic intelligence service said in a communiqué published last month.

One foiled attempt involved a DHL cargo plane departing from Warsaw. During a routine inspection, security personnel discovered a concealed device disguised as a routine shipment. “It was a highly sophisticated mechanism, crafted to bypass conventional detection methods,” said a senior ABW official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The discovery has prompted Poland to implement stricter screening measures at airports, including advanced scanning technology and increased scrutiny of cargo personnel. In a joint statement, Polish and NATO officials highlighted the urgency of safeguarding Europe’s critical supply chains against similar threats. “This is no longer an isolated incident; it’s part of a larger strategy to disrupt the West’s logistical and military support for Ukraine,” said the NATO Secretary-General.

Western intelligence agencies are also investigating whether Moscow intended something more ambitious, and menacing, such as destroying planes on American runways, setting off bombs at U.S. warehouses or even blowing up aircraft midair. Officials said that both the U.S. and its European allies were potential targets of the Russian plot.

Espionage and Influence: The Findings of Poland’s Special Commission

Poland has also faced an influx of espionage activity, with Russian and Belarusian agents working to undermine its political and economic stability. In 2024, the ABW arrested more than a dozen individuals suspected of espionage, including a Belarusian national apprehended in Wrocław.

The detainee was found with detailed intelligence on Polish military movements and photographs of critical infrastructure near the border. The investigation revealed links to Russian intelligence services, highlighting the integrated nature of Moscow’s and Minsk’s hybrid warfare strategies.

The Polish Commission on Russian and Belarusian Influence, established in 2023, recently presented a comprehensive report detailing the scope of these operations. The findings include:

- Media Manipulation: Russian-backed outlets and social media campaigns aimed at spreading disinformation and polarizing public opinion in Poland.

- Economic Infiltration: Attempts to gain control over Polish businesses in strategic sectors such as energy and logistics.

- Cyberattacks: Repeated efforts to breach government networks and critical infrastructure, often coordinated with disinformation campaigns.

- Border Destabilization: Exploitation of the migrant crisis along the Polish-Belarusian border to strain resources and provoke political divisions.

- Political Influence: Evidence that certain Polish individuals and organizations acted, knowingly or unknowingly, in ways that aligned with Russian objectives.

General Jarosław Strożyński, a leading member of the commission, described the findings as "a clear and present danger" to Poland’s sovereignty. “The evidence leaves no doubt that Russia is waging an undeclared war against Poland, targeting our institutions and society,” he said.

Poland’s Evolving Response

In response to these threats, Poland has ramped up its security measures and urged NATO to adapt its defense strategies to include hybrid warfare scenarios. Warsaw has called for the alliance to broaden its interpretation of Article 5, which commits members to collective defense, to encompass sabotage, cyber-attacks, and disinformation campaigns.

Polish officials are pushing for joint exercises to simulate hybrid attacks, including sabotage of infrastructure and cyber incursions. “We need to be prepared for a battlefield that doesn’t just involve tanks and troops but also misinformation, economic disruption, and cyber sabotage” , said President Andrzej Duda.

Domestically, Poland has enacted new legislation granting the ABW expanded powers to investigate hybrid threats and prosecute individuals collaborating with foreign intelligence services. Additionally, Poland has increased surveillance along its eastern border, deploying advanced drone technology to monitor crossings and detect potential incursions.

As Poland confronts a growing wave of sabotage and subversive activities, it has become a critical testing ground for NATO’s ability to respond to hybrid threats. Russia’s actions—spanning espionage, disinformation, and direct attacks on infrastructure—reflect a calculated strategy to destabilize its adversaries while avoiding direct military confrontation.

For Poland, the stakes are existential. As the country strengthens its defenses and rallies its allies, it also serves as a stark reminder of the evolving nature of modern warfare. In this new era of conflict, where the line between peace and war is increasingly blurred, the resilience of nations like Poland might shape the future of European security.