Russia could prepare an operation – hybrid, false flag, or even a limited attack – against a NATO country, to test the Alliance’s response. With major Western powers distracted (domestic political issues, the war in Iran, etc.) Moscow may feel that it has a window of oportunity, and the most likely targets are considered to be Poland and the Baltic states.
In 2025, Poland has found itself on the front line of a shadow war, waged with drones, explosives hidden along railway lines or in courier parcels turned into bombs, compromised officials, and and people recruited by the Russian secret services.
A wave of "accidents"/sabotages in the Baltic Sea suggests that the tanker fleet used by Russia to evade Western sanctions is also being deployed in the hybrid warfare that Moscow is waging against the West.
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, Russia is stepping up hybrid attacks against NATO countries. Being at the forefront of Russia’s campaign, Poland has been facing an increasing number of sabotages.