Latvia has a new pro-EU president. Will the country’s ruling coalition survive?

Latvia has a new pro-EU president. Will the country’s ruling coalition survive?
© EPA-EFE/TOMS KALNINS   |   Presidental candidate Edgars Rinkevics looks on during voting in the Latvian presidential election in the Saeima (Parliament), Riga, Latvia, 31 May 2023.

As the Latvian Parliament elected a new president, highly respected foreign minister Edgars Rinkeviks, the country’s pro-European ruling coalition may have its days numbered.

A staunchly pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian politician

For almost all of his professional life, 49 years old Rinkēvičs has been in the public sector. He started as a journalist in Latvian Radio where he covered were foreign policy and international affairs. After this, he spent many years working in the Ministry of Defence, climbing the professional ladder until he became state secretary, which is the highest civil servant position in Latvian ministries. As a deputy-chief of Latvia’s negotiating team with NATO, Rinkēvičs played an important role in his country’s accession to the Alliance.  

Later from 2008 to 2011, he was the head of the Office of the President of Latvia when the head of state was Valdis Zatlers. Rinkēvičs has been called unofficially one of the people behind Zatlers’ decision to call a referendum – which he won – on dissolving the Parliament, after the latter refused to appoint a new prosecutor general and judges.

In October 2011, Rinkēvičs became Latvia’s minister of foreign affairs. Thus, he is the most experienced politician in the current government and one of the longest-serving ministers ever in Latvia. He started his political career in „Zatler’s Reform Party”. After the party disbanded in 2014, Rinkēvičs became a member of the party „New Unity” which has led several governments, including the current one.

Rinkēvičs has a bachelor’s degree in history and a master’s degree in political science from Latvian University and international affairs in the Netherlands and the United States.

As far as personal life is concerned, Rinkēvičs is quite discrete, but he did come out as gay back in 2014.

Rinkēvičs is well-known for his pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian politics. While working in the Ministry of Defense and then as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rinkēvičs has been closely connected with NATO and the EU, and he has always emphasized that Latvia’s future and development are rooted in Western society.

Rinkēvičs has also been a strong supporter of Ukraine in its war with Russia. For instance, in November 2022 during the summit of NATO foreign ministers, he stated that NATO has a moral duty to increase both military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Respectively, he is a strong Russian critic. In the afore-mentioned summit in Bucharest, Rinkēvičs noted that „Russia still is the most serious and most direct threat for NATO in the foreseeable future”. He called on NATO countries to be better prepared against Russia’s threats and he urged for an increase in defense spending. He also warned that China’s „behavior and self-confidence create global and regional challenges and risks for our security”, and added that China’s and Russia’s strategic partnership must be carefully evaluated since it could have unpredictable geopolitical consequences.

Because of his career in diplomacy, Rinkēvičs was not that involved in domestic politics, but he will need to change that as Latvia’s president, besides representing the country on the international stage, is working with political parties and trying to unify the society by offering new aims or values.

Just after he was elected president, Rinkēvičs said that he intends to start his four-year term in office, by visiting the Latvian regions. According to him, that would be the way to balance domestic and international politics. In an interview with Latvian Radio, Rinkēvičs said that, at least at the beginning, he would like to listen to people rather than talk. „I would like to have a situation when the doors of my office will be open for the people if they have a problem. It does not mean that I always agree with them, but it is necessary for them to feel that they are heard, and if there is common opinion then there is a reaction,” explained Rinkēvičs.

The newly-elected president, who will start his job officially on the 8th of July, also said he will support an approach to business and scientific research where scientists are collaborating with companies to produce high added value projects.

Rinkēvičs also expressed readiness to pay attention to the different opinions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to him, the president is a dialogue facilitator in the society. Since there are people in Latvia who are confused about the ongoing war, then Latvia’s task is now to stop the Russian propaganda that could influence them and promote division in society, he said moments after his election on the 31st of May. This is possible by talking with people and meeting them in schools, regions, and elsewhere. He did however rule out working with people whose actions towards Latvia are deemed criminal and dangerous. He stressed that his own values are very clear – the Latvian language is the only official language in Latvia, the Latvian constitution must be respected, and the support for Ukraine and the condemnation of the Russian policies will continue.

The pro-EU ruling coalition is under threat

Rinkevic’s victory may have some important consequences on Latvian politics. The country’s ruling coalition is made of three parties: New Unity, United List and the National Alliance. Rinkeviks was nominated for presidency by New Unity. The United List fielded businessman Uldis Pilens, while the National Alliance had previously expressed their support to outgoing president Egil Levits. However, Levits decided not to run, saying that, as the coalition couldn’t agree on a common candidate, the only way to elect a president was with the support of Russian-leaning and oligarch-leaning parties, and he didn’t want that (critics did say that Levits knew that he wouldn’t gather enough support, so he just wanted to avoid a defeat). The National Alliance thus decided to refrain from voting.

In Latvia, the president is elected by the 100 seat Parliament. If no one wins at least 51 votes in the first round, a second round is held. If that too fails to produce a majority, the candidate with the least votes withdraws, and a new round is organised; this goes on until only two candidates remain and one of them gets at least 51 votes.

This year’s ballot included, besides Rinkeviks and Pilens, Elina Pinto, nominated by the opposition party Progressives, which supports a broader integration of the so-called “non-Latvians”, former Soviet citizens and their descendants of different ethnic backgrounds (but mostly Russians) who are living in Latvia without holding the country’s citizenship.

In the first round of the elections, Rinkēvičs was voted by 42 MPS, Pilens got 25 votes, and Pinto – 10. After a second round which yielded identical results, Pinto had to give up and she threw her support behind Rinkeviks, who won the third round with 52 votes. The MPs that voted for him came from New Unity – 26 – the Union of Greens and Farmers – 16, and the Progressives – 10 votes.

The fact that Rinkēvičs was supported by two parties that are not part of the ruling coalition brings into questions the latter’s stability. Coalition members did say that the presidential elections should not influence the ongoing collaboration, but one does wonder whether promised the other two parties, and in particular the Eurosceptic Union of Greens and Farmers, for supporting Rinkeviks. Prime minister Krisjanis Karins (New Unity) has already announced that he will promote the discussions about enlarging the coalition, an idea rejected by United List and the National Alliance. Both the Union of Greens and Farmers and the Progressives deny they were promised anything.

But they did confirm that they are interested in working with the government.

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