With the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Latvia's relations with China have become even more restrained than before, and things are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
Big intentions, little results
On November 5, 2016, in the cold wind and on one of the first snow days, Latvian and Chinese officials welcomed the first goods train from the Chinese city of Jivu at Riga Central Station. Having traveled more than 11,000 kilometers, it brought textiles, sanitary ware, and household goods to Latvia. At the time, there were reports that this would only be the first train, with many more to follow. The cooperation was developed in the context of the 16+1 group. In it, China cooperated with 16 Central European, Eastern European, and Baltic countries aiming to strengthen the political and economic relations. However, permanent cooperation in railway transit did not develop.
The project at that time predicted that Latvian ports would become an important point for Chinese export goods on the way to Scandinavia and Western Europe. At the same time, Latvia hoped that its goods would also be in demand in China. Also, around 2021, Latvian ports were considering the possibility of transshipping Chinese export goods that came through Belarus.
Doctor of Political Sciences Mārtiņš Hiršs recalls for Veridica that several years ago there were talks not only about growing trade and regular railway transportation but also about regular flights between Riga and Shanghai and Chinese offers to repair Latvian highways. China even considered participating in the procurement for the establishment of the international railway network “Rail Baltica” in Latvia, but abandoned this intention, realizing that it would not win the competition.
However, none of these plans have been realized and with China's relatively close relations with Russia, Latvia has distanced itself from China.
The Constitution Protection Bureau points to a potential threat from China
There are several reasons why Latvia has become cold towards China. True, even when ideas about big projects were in the air, Latvia maneuvered between the desire to enter the huge Chinese market and the desire to keep a distance. Thus, one cannot say that historically there were strong ties between Latvia and China. The caution was rooted both in the fact that there were staunch pro-Western politicians in the Latvian government, and the recommendations of the Latvian intelligence – the Constitution Protection Bureau - because the intelligence services of China and Russia cooperate and there are similar accents in propaganda.
A significant turning point in the relations between Latvia and China was Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In August 2022, Latvia and Estonia decided to stop their participation in the 16+1 project. „Given the current priorities of Latvian foreign and trade policy, Latvia has decided to cease its participation in the cooperation framework of Central and Eastern European Countries and China. Latvia will continue to strive for constructive and pragmatic relations with China both bilaterally,” announced the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
As the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted in July 2024: “Latvia’s interests in cooperation with China: a more equal trade balance and China’s constructive involvement in solving the Russian war in Ukraine”. Hiršs explains that Chinese investment and cargo cannot be separated from Russian influence because they pass through Russian territory.China also supports Russia's invasion to a certain extent, and its governance or power model cannot be called democratic.In addition, the Constitution Protection Bureau reminds that China conducts aggressive intelligence.
Indeed - in February 2024, the Latvian intelligence service - the Constitution Protection Bureau - indicated that Latvia, as a member of the European Union and NATO, is one of the targets of China’s influence. In other words, China is increasingly trying to position itself not only as an economic power but also as an alternative to the Western model of governance.
Chinese investments in strategically important sectors, such as green energy, telecommunications, and the pharmaceutical market, may pose a threat to Latvia's security. Moreover, similar to elsewhere in the EU, China establishes companies in Latvia, employing its citizens, thus maintaining control over these companies. On the other hand, Latvian companies and students working or studying in China can be the focus of attention of Chinese intelligence services.
As the director of the Center of Chinese Studies at Riga Stradins University Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova explains to TV3: “Latvia is one of the countries … that clearly stated that Latvia-China relations are based on China’s position in relations to Russia full-scale invasion of Ukraine. When it became clear that China was not going to argue with Russia, Europe decided to take a distance from China. Both in Europe and Latvia China is perceived as a threat. China tries to be involved in the serious projects (in Europe)”.
However, there are some cases when Latvian politicians are looking for cooperation opportunities with China. In January 2024, a group of Latvian parliament members, mostly opposition MPs, on their initiative, went on a visit that was not coordinated with the parliament and was paid for by China. was criticized by leading politicians. On the other hand, Chinese investors establish non-working companies in Latvia to obtain temporary residence permits.
There will be no thaw in relations in the foreseeable future
Regarding the future, there is no optimism in Latvia. There is no end in sight to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the tension between China and the West is not abating. The relations of the third Baltic state, Lithuania, with China, are not improving either. Since the opening of Taiwan's embassy in Lithuania, there is no longer a Chinese embassy there. Lithuanian politicians have talked of pending investments from Taipei of hundreds of millions of euros, though only a few million has so far materialized, writes „Euronews”. For instance, in October 2023, Lithuania’s presidential advisor Asta Skaisgiryte criticized Taiwan saying „there were higher hopes from Taiwan”. Lithuania acknowledges that the decision to cooperate with Taiwan instead of China has cost in terms of trade. For instance, Lithuanian exports to China plummeted from 350 million EUR in 2020 to 100 million EUR in 2022.
Hiršs emphasizes that like many other European countries, Latvia as well evaluating the relationships with China in terms of security, not economics. Thus, railway, port, and other projects will stay frozen as they are right now. However, Latvia is not going to follow Lithuania and will end diplomatic relations with China. In other words, Latvia’s policies will be „diplomatically maneuverable” without any critics, nevertheless, there will be no deeper connections between the two countries.
