The Baltic countries have already demonstrated their economic independence and competitiveness as members of the European Union. What they are now asked to do is prove their ability to withstand Russia's hybrid attacks.
2026 marked the intensification of the Kremlin’s hybrid aggression against the Baltic states. Provocations against politicians and civil activists, mass attempts of illegal migration, organisation of pro-Russian political movements – these are only some of the tools used by the Kremlin to destabilise the Baltics.
Russia’s most loyal ally, Belarus, is taking part in hybrid operations against the Baltic states, pushing migrants towards their borders, recruiting spies, and promoting propaganda narratives. Will Alexander Lukashenko be willing to drag his country in a Russian military operation in the region?
Governments in ex-Soviet states have a strategy of demonizing Russia and promoting Russophobia, and Maia Sandu's recent visit to Vilnius fits into this context, according to Russian propaganda. Maia Sandu actually went to Vilnius to mark the anniversary of Lithuania's independence.
Russian manipulation, security concerns, and pressure from some Lithuanian businesses may have all played a role in the relocation of Belarus’ opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, to Belarus.
Russia’s closest ally, Belarus, has been increasing its hybrid operations against its EU neighbors, directing migrants towards their borders and closing its eyes to increasingly brazen smuggling. The goal is to cause instability.
More than three decades after the Soviet collapse, the three Baltic nations stand as prosperous democracies firmly anchored in Europe, while neighboring Belarus and Moldova still in Moscow’s orbit to varying degrees. The contrast, though sometimes clouded by nostalgia and disinformation, is stark.
An attack against an Alexey Navalny associate brought to light Latvian police corruption, divisions among Russia’s opposition and Latvian reserves regarding the latter.
With the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Latvia's relations with China have become even more restrained than before, and things are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
The Baltic states have similar backgrounds and are mostly supportive to each other. There is, however, a friendly competition in terms of the speed of their development, and Latvia lags behind.