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The pace of the Russian offensive in Ukraine will slow down by the end of July because Russia has urgently called all available reserves into play, according to the Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov. He analyzed for Veridica the state of mind in Ukrainian society and army, the issues Moscow and Kyiv are facing in this war, but also the inconsistency of the West's actions directed against Russia.
Oleg Zhdanov is one of the most important military analysts in Ukraine, a Soviet and Ukrainian army reserve colonel, a professor at the National Military Academy in Kyiv. Since 2016, he has been writing military and political analyzes for the press in the former Soviet states. His Youtube (about a million followers) and Telegram (in Russian and Ukrainian languages) channels enjoy great popularity in Ukraine, Belarus, the Republic of Moldova, Georgia and other former Soviet states.
Russia is looking for immigrants to send to the front. "All Russian reserves are now in Ukraine"
VERIDICA: Different points of view regarding the military and socio-political developments in Ukraine have emerged in the international press. Who is closer to victory in the war or do you think it is not appropriate to use the notion of victory at this point?
Oleg Zhdanov: It is premature to talk about victory, both in the case of Ukraine and in that of Russia. We can expect Kyiv to take the initiative in the war over the next six months. The situation on the battlefield is as follows. Russia has made the decision to use all its resources and advance urgently. All Russian reserves are now in Ukraine. Reserves near Donetsk, for example, are sent to the tactical combat zone that has a depth of 30 kilometers. About 150 thousand Russian soldiers are deployed in the Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk operational directions. Other troops are fighting in the Kurahiv-Vuhledar direction. Considering the very modest Russian reserves, I agree with the forecast of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, who said that this pace of intense fighting proposed by Russia will end by the end of July.
VERIDICA: Why is Russia in such a hurry and risking the reserves you mentioned?
Oleg Zhdanov: Because Putin is gradually running out of political capital. I don't mean human resources. Specialists from the West claim that Russia can mobilize another 15 million men, and experts from Moscow say that the human resources stand at 25 million. Putin can no longer announce a partial or general mobilization to compensate for the losses. They gather people as they can and from where they can. The Criminal Investigation Committee, which has a different mission under Russian law, is looking for immigrants who have recently obtained Russian citizenship to enlist in the military. A few weeks ago, at a national forum in Russia, it was announced that the committee had sent more than 10 thousand immigrants to military commissariats.
VERIDICA: And what would be the consequences of announcing a new wave of mobilization on Russian territory?
Oleg Zhdanov: There will be a social outburst in some regions of Russia. The 2022 wave of mobilization triggered the biggest drop in ratings for the Russian leader. People were unhappy. Today, the Putin administration fears social unrest and is trying to supplement the military in other, less visible ways. I think that Vladimir Putin is again trying to get a chance to initiate negotiations that he can continue for as long as he sees fit. The Kremlin would need a peace talk this year to strengthen its capabilities and attack Ukraine with new strength.
The Kharkov operation was supposed to become a trap for Kyiv, but it turned into one for Moscow
VERIDICA: Was the Kharkov offensive Russia’s failure, a failure of the Ukrainian intelligence or a miscalculation on both sides?
Oleg Zhdanov: The Ukrainian intelligence services are not to blame, but there were issues with the defense engineering. Russia took advantage of Kyiv’s weaknesses and launched an offensive on a new front. Operation Kharkiv was launched by Russia a month earlier than it should have been. According to the information obtained by Ukrainians, but also by Kyiv’s Western partners, Russia was going to gather about 50-70 thousand soldiers in the Belgorod region. Moscow did not wait and understood that time worked in favor of Ukrainians. The decision was made to open a new front with only 30 thousand soldiers. These human resources proved to be insufficient.
For the Russians, the Kharkov operation was a failure, and that’s what they believe too. Kyiv was able to send reserves into that area and fortunately huge losses for the Russian troops ensued. Now there are battles in which the Ukrainian army successfully defends itself and has managed to stop the offensive. Since Russia no longer has operational reserves, Moscow is forced to send soldiers from other directions of the front. The 86th Brigade was withdrawn to the Belgorod region to be replenished. Russia does not know what to do next with this part of the front, but politically it cannot afford to withdraw from there.
VERIDICA: You mentioned Russia's haste also in the case of the offensive in the Kharkiv region. What is it related to?
Oleg Zhdanov: The US decision to provide military support to Ukraine caused the Russians to rush. They thought now was the time to occupy other territories. Russia feared a strengthened Ukrainian army with the help of new types of Western weapons.
Russia knows that Ukraine can liberate Crimea and is creating new hotbeds of tension on other fronts
VERIDICA: Is the Crimea issue still discussed in Ukrainian society? How complicated do you think an operation to liberate the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 would be?
Oleg Zhdanov: Crimea is constantly being discussed in Ukraine, nobody has forgotten about it. From a military point of view, it is much easier to liberate the Crimean Peninsula than the city of Donetsk. Crimea can be operationally encircled and liberated with the resources currently available to Ukraine. Kyiv is actually working on this project, which consists of destroying Russian air defense targets, military targets and infrastructure, radar and training centers. Preparations for the Crimea operation have been going on for some time and Russia knows it. To make this plan impossible, the Russian army is looking for new and new ways of escalation in Donbas and other regions. Additional problems are created to prevent us from focusing on the project of liberating Crimea. I repeat, as a military operation, the liberation of the peninsula is not difficult to achieve.
The war could last for several years even after a possible liberation of the Ukrainian regions
VERIDICA: From time to time, Russian propaganda speaks about the territorial concessions that Ukraine should make in the name of peace. Vladimir Putin has even mentioned the regions that Russia wants as a prerequisite for sitting at the negotiating table. What do Ukrainians think about these talks?
Oleg Zhdanov: Sociological polls in Ukraine show that citizens do not agree to give up territories in the name of peace. This is not our first war with Russia. We had another war in the east of the country, in the years 2014-2022. When the goals are not achieved, the war does not end. There could be a break in this war, as it was since 2015 after the Minsk ceasefire. Putin will attack Ukraine again because the Kremlin's goal is to destroy the Ukrainian state and the Ukrainian nation.
Another problem is that Russians and Ukrainians claim the same historical heritage. The coexistence of our states as political projects, as they currently exist, is impossible. Therefore, the liberation of all Ukrainian regions will not mean the end of the war. If we reach our natural borders, we have no guarantee that there will be a ceasefire. I do not exclude that a scenario similar to the one in Israel awaits us, when the parties involved in an international conflict will attack each other from time to time over several years.
Returning to the topic of territorial cessions, if such a thing happens, the international law system will be dismantled, and the global security system will also be affected. The territorial inviolability and sovereignty of states must be respected. If Russia gets Ukrainian territories, the world risks entering the logic of the jungle, when the rules will be written by the strongest.
The Ukrainian political leadership does not know how to motivate its military personnel: "People are tired, the military is also tired"
VERIDICA: You talked about the problems encountered by Russia in terms of mobilization, but there are also difficulties in Ukraine. A new mobilization law was recently adopted. What is the mood in the military and society? Does Ukraine still have resources?
Oleg Zhdanov: We do have human resources. Kyiv has two to three million people available to supplement the Ukrainian army. Ukraine's problem now is not an HR one, but of motivating the military personnel. We have a new mobilization law which is by no means perfect, but which creates an electronic register of all those fit for military service. We will know exactly what we can count on in this war. I’ve seen an increase in the pace of military enlistment in recent months, similar to past years. After the authorities made efforts to mobilize more men, we found ourselves facing another issue – we don't have enough equipment. It takes a lot of time for military equipment from the West to reach Ukraine. These two processes (mobilization and equipping) are not synchronized and do not depend only on Kyiv. I know recently mobilized Ukrainian soldiers who, instead of being sent to the front, are waiting for equipment.
Kyiv needs to do a lot more work on motivating the military personnel. The need to reconsider all communication mechanisms arose in the third year of the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, I have not noticed anything new from the Ukrainian political leadership in this regard, which is not good. People are tired, so are the military. A rotation of military personnel is needed, but this is a risk. In two situations we were attacked where brigade rotation moves were taking place, in Ocheretyne and Sumy. Russia took advantage of the turnover there and we had to withdraw. Despite this fatigue, Ukrainians know that they must not stop because they have been witnessing the genocide organized by Russia in the occupied localities. Where Russia comes there is no more life left…
Technologies and money from the West reach Russia and strengthen its war industry
VERIDICA: What must happen to see a Ukrainian victory in this war? Is it the West's fault that the war is still going on?
Oleg Zhdanov: The West is partly to blame. Anti-Russian sanctions are weak and inconsistent. Russia collects millions of dollars every day for gas and oil sold to the West. Russian oil reaches Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline, Austria and France buy Russian gas. Russian banks have access to the SWIFT system. There are many other aspects of these sanctions that do not weaken Russia. Sometimes I get the impression that the US wants Russia to not fall apart after this war is over. Ukraine waited half a year for the US decision on [unblocking] military support, and in these six months North Korea delivered over 5 million units of ammunition to Russia. At the same time, the EU could not honor its commitment to deliver one million projectiles to Ukraine.
Western strategic uncertainty allowed Russia to prolong the war and the Russian oligarchs to adapt, because money has no smell. We have recently analyzed what the Russian Orlan drone is made of and found that 50 percent of its components are from the West, manufactured recently, in the years 2023-2024. So Western technology continues to flow into Russia and bolster its military industry.
VERIDICA: Considering the trends described above, what can we expect in the coming months and what could be the situation at the end of this year?
Oleg Zhdanov: The war will end when there is enough political will in Washington and in other Western capitals. In 2022, there were several missed chances to help Ukraine win. We are talking, for example, about lend lease, about a much more consistent and fast support, which, however, was not delivered. It's not too late yet, but times are a little different. In December 2024, I expect to see a different situation on the front. I hope we’ll manage to take the initiative in the war and start the gradual destruction of the Russian troops.
