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The head of European diplomacy has stated that Russia will defeat Ukraine in three months, writes the Russian state press, taking out of context and "enriching" a statement by Josep Borrell.
Propaganda: Borrell belives that Russia will win the war in three months
NEWS: Russia's special operation on Ukrainian territory will end in the next three months, the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at the Munich Security Conference, calling for increased military aid to Kyiv.
"In three months, things will be decided on the battlefield. We cannot wait for ‘let’s see what’s happening in the European elections’ or ‘we want to know more details," Borrell said. He stressed that the West must act much faster and be more decisive because time is running out.
In January, the Russian army took control of the town of Tabaivka in the direction of Kupyansk. Ukraina.ru war correspondent Vasili Tkaici told URA.RU that a breakthrough of the Ukrainian front was coming. A few days later, the Russian army entered Avdiivka.
NARRATIVE: The EU foreign policy chief predicts the end of the Russian 'special military operation' in three months.
LOCAL CONTEXT/ETHOS: In February, Josep Borrell participated in the Munich Security Conference, one of the most important global forums on security and foreign policy. A wide range of issues were analyzed at the conference, from the more or less intense conflicts currently affecting different regions of the world (Eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Sahel) to the challenges and security risks generated by climate change and the race for technological innovations.
As with the previous edition of the Conference, the war in Ukraine and Russian threats to security were major topics of debate, especially since the guests at the conference included the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the wife of the former leader of the Russian opposition, Alexei Navalny; Iulia Navalnya spoke shortly after it was learned that her husband had died under suspicious circumstances in the Arctic penal colony where he was serving a 19-year prison sentence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked in Munich for more security assistance from Ukraine's allies; his intervention came hours after the Ukrainian army's withdrawal from Avdiivka had been announced, the defeat being explained also by the fact that the Kyiv forces lacked the necessary artillery ammunition. The Kyiv leader stated that Ukraine could be defeated by Russia if left on its own.
The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell was also present at the Security Conference in Munich, where he gave a speech on the new geopolitical agenda , imposed by the events of recent years. According to Borrell, the agenda is influenced by developments in three geographic areas – Ukraine, Gaza and the Global South – and the need to place greater importance on security.
Regarding the challenges related to the first of the geographical areas of interest, Ukraine, Josep Borrell noted three challenges for the European Union: the need to continue to support Kyiv both economically and militarily, the continuation of Ukraine’s European integration process (the membership status being seen as a security guarantee for Kyiv) and finally the need to prepare the Union for long-term tensions with Russia.
In the question-and-answer session that followed, Josep Borrell also uttered the sentence "in three months, things will be decided on the battlefield", which Russian propaganda took out of context and "enriched", stating that the head of European diplomacy said that the war in Ukraine would end in three months with Russia's victory - the Russian media carried headlines such as Borrell: “The Russian Federation will end the special operation in three months” or “Borrell announced that there are three months left for the completion of the special military operation” , which is far from the truth.
It should also be noted that, at this moment, the Russian offensive on the battlefield is doubled by an intensification of propaganda. The aim is to take advantage from both the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing on the ground and the issues that have arisen in providing support to Ukraine, from the blocking of US aid amid political disputes in the United States, to the rise in popularity of some politicians who have spoken out against supporting Ukraine in the context of the so-called "Super Election Year". The Russian narrative that Russia is trying to promote is that its victory in the war is certain and imminent and the West knows and openly admits this outcome.
PURPOSE: To discourage the Ukrainian resistance in the war, to strengthen the support of Russian society for the "special military operation" launched by Vladimir Putin. The propaganda also tries to convince readers that European leaders call the war in Ukraine a "special operation" and are powerless in the face of Russia's military capabilities.
Reality: Borrell didn’t even mention the war in Ukraine
WHY THE NARRATIVE IS FALSE: The EU foreign policy chief did not say that Ukraine will be defeated or that Russia will win the war; the only true thing from what the Russian press wrote is that the phrase "three months" was indeed used.
Josep Borrell was asked whether the European Union would have the necessary capabilities and political will to be credible. It was the first question asked to the head of European diplomacy, immediately after he finished his speech, the last part of which dwelled on the efforts that Europe is making to strengthen its security, from increasing the military production capacity to the civil and military missions launched under the common defense and security policy.
Josep Borrell replied that it was necessary for the member states to act together, faster and better. He called for the simplification of red tape and stressed that European officials needed to stop giving answers like “yes, we will do it, but let’s see the next Foreign Affairs Council”. He added that "in three months things will be decided on the battlefield" and we cannot wait for ‘let's see what's happening in the European elections; let’s see, we are still not there; we want to know more details…’. This is for another dimension of politics. In the current situation, people have to be much more agile, much more committed, much more to the point. We have a lot of strategies, but we don't have a lot of action.”
So Borrell's answer was about how Europe can handle a crisis situation and how, in the context of today's security challenges, the European method of solving problems gradually, through longer-term approaches, is ineffective. The head of European diplomacy did not use phrases such as "the end of Russia's special military operation" or "the rescue of Ukraine by the EU", as the Russian state media wrote, creating the impression of an imminent victory of the Russian army on the battlefield; he did not even uttered the name of Ukraine in his answer, and the phrase "special operation" is one specific to Russian propaganda, European officials resorting to the word that reflects the reality: "war".
The sentence "in three months things will be decided on the battlefield" has a rhetorical role here, the meaning being that while the decisions are dragged by Europe’s bureaucratic mode of operation, the situation in a crisis zone can evolve much faster, and the decisions made in Brussels might come too late. The reality on the ground and the numerous crises that have occurred over time support this thesis: the recent wars in Nagorno Karabakh, for example, ended faster than three months; the Covid-19 crisis had already become global when measures were taken to stop it. Three months into the war in Gaza, it had already resulted in a huge death toll, widespread destruction and a massive humanitarian crisis, and the examples go on. Even in the case of Ukraine, in the first stage of the war, in 2014, Crimea was invaded and seized much faster than three months. Obviously, also in the current context, with the Ukrainian forces under pressure, three months could mean a lot (if, for example, aid to Kyiv were completely cut off), but this is universally true in a crisis situation.
GRAIN OF TRUTH: There is some concern in the West about Russia taking the initiative in the war in Ukraine, the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from Avdiivka being a relevant example. Against the backdrop of the prolongation of the war with Russia, the Supreme Rada in Kyiv approved in the first reading the bill on military service, mobilization and military records. The document, which has sparked heated debates in Ukrainian society, provides for a series of drastic measures to mobilize more men into the army. The Russian press used this topic as an element of war propaganda.
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