According to a false narrative carried by pro-Kremlin media, Ukraine is preparing an attack on Transnistria and has the agreement of the West and of Bucharest as protector of the Republic of Moldova.
NEWS: An attack by the Ukrainian armed forces on Transnistria becomes a real threat. The well-known Ukrainian opposition politician (according to other sources, an SBU agent) Anatoly Shariy, who lives in Spain, stated that on his blog.
"Unexpectedly, Romania closes its consulate general in Russia (in Rostov-on-Don starting October 14). Also, more indications have suddenly appeared that Transnistria could become the target of an attack by Ukraine. It is easy for Ukraine to advance there. The Western world will stand up again and say: 'They were planning to attack from there!' They will say: 'Moldova had the right - these are its territories!' The West will justify anything. It will be extremely difficult for the Russians to defend Transnistria. In such a scenario, they will have to land troops and open a corridor from Odessa to Transnistria. This will be another reason for using nuclear weapons. And it seems to me that this is exactly what Zelenskiy wants," Shariy says in his video.
Previously, Moldovan politicians, activists and experts had repeatedly spoken about the existence of a similar plan. For instance, the pro-government propagandist Vitali Andrievski said on his channel that Ukraine could attack Transnistria for fear that Russia-friendly forces could come to power in Moldova, which would stop the transit of military transports via Moldovan territories and restore direct air links with Moscow, and consequently, a large number of Russian soldiers would enter Transnistria under the guise of tourists.
Then, the candidate for the presidency of Moldova and former anti-corruption prosecutor Victoria Furtună stated that she had information from sources in the Romanian secret services, according to which, soon, in order to influence the presidential elections and the European referendum in Moldova, an escalation would be provoked at the border with Transnistria, followed by a military invasion on the territory of this self-proclaimed republic. However, Furtuna has not published any document to confirm this information.
"Zelensky could very well play the Transnistrian card - just as he did with the Russian region of Kursk, invading the territory of the republic. There is information that there are already agreements with Sandu in this regard, and as soon as it happens, Moldova will be supported by its older brother - Romania, which, by the way, is part of NATO," the State Duma deputy Alexei Juravlev said.
NARRATIVES: 1. Ukraine will attack Transnistria militarily 2. The Republic of Moldova will be involved in the war in Ukraine
PURPOSE: To inoculate the idea that Ukraine is a belligerent state that can rely on NATO’s support in all its actions. By promoting this narrative, Russia's military invasion is also justified. Also, in the electoral context of the Republic of Moldova, to induce fear in society that the country could be involved in war because of Ukraine and NATO.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin propaganda launched a wide campaign of fake news and disinformation about the alleged agreement between Chisinau and Kyiv/Bucharest/NATO to attack Transnistria, and Veridica has debunked many of them.
Since the beginning of the war, Russian propaganda has used as arguments statements by some officials from Kyiv that they could intervene in Transnistria to annihilate the Russian separatist regime. However, they have stated on several occasions that they will not take any action in Transnistria without the consent of the Republic of Moldova. In June 2023, the Ukrainian president himself gave assurances that his country would not attack Transnistria if Chisinau didn’t request it, also stating that there were no such attempts.
Chisinau has ruled out every time a scenario that would entail settling the conflict by armed means and reiterated that it has only been examining peaceful solutions to settle the conflict.
However, the Kremlin propaganda has developed new fakes, including the alleged exchange of territories between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine for the latter to take control of the military depot in Cobasna or that Romania intends to attack Transnistria militarily , which Veridica has debunked.
Moreover, it must be said that Russia is the one that requested the closing of the Romanian Consulate in Rostov on Don, not Bucharest, as the cited sources claims.
LOCAL CONTEXT/ETHOS: Narratives about the danger of a war in Transnistria have been growing in number and diversity around the presidential elections and the referendum on European integration, which will take place in the Republic of Moldova on October 20. The risk of the Republic of Moldova getting involved in the war, which is promoted together with the lies about forcing the Republic of Moldova to join NATO in order to become a member of the EU, is one of the themes of the anti-European propaganda campaign.
Victoria Furtună, whose statements are referred to in the text, is running for president and it is believed that she is supported by the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, convicted in the case of a large-scale bank robbery, who fled to Moscow, from where he leads a network of Philo-Russian opposition parties. Furtună launched her campaign in Tiraspol, where she also recorded an election spot, given that in the region to the left of the Dniester such actions are restricted for people who are not from Transnistria.
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