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The West is preparing an attack on Transnistria to push the Republic of Moldova into an armed conflict against Russia, according to a false narrative published by ehomd.info. The narrative is part of a genuine campaign on this issue, behind which are both the pro-Kremlin press and left-wing politicians in Chisinau.
NEWS: “The West is just one step away from attracting the Republic of Moldova into the military conflict”, the ehomd.info portal headlined on June 7.
[...] “There is no doubt that the Republic of Moldova is called to war with all the might there is. The power propaganda works in this direction, stating daily that the Republic of Moldova is next after Ukraine. This is evidenced by the recurrent statements of Maia Sandu on the need to evacuate the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Transnistria, which is there in accordance with the signed agreements. Moreover, the influence of neighboring Romania, which organizes inter-parliamentary meetings and sees our republic as a component of “Greater Bessarabia”, should not be underestimated.
The authors of the article also publish the scenario of the “operation to open the second front”: the NATO statement on the preparations for the Russian invasion of Transnistria; dissemination of alleged plans by Russia to transfer its troops to Transnistria through the Odessa region and provision of military support to the Republic of Moldova
[...] “In fact, the West is now just one step away from pushing the republic into the military conflict – launching a real or fake attack on the Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria.... In that case, Russia will be obliged to react in accordance with its national interests and ensure its own security”.
NARRATIVES: 1. The West is pushing to have the Republic of Moldova involved in the war in Ukraine. 2. The Republic of Moldova is prepared by the West to attack the Transnistrian separatist region and the Russian military stationed there.
LOCAL CONTEXT / ETHOS: Narratives about preparations for Moldova's involvement in the war in Ukraine have been increasingly promoted in the last month, amid incidents in Transnistria, as well as statements by the Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Alexei Arestovich, who said that Ukraine could eliminate the region's separatist administration “at a stroke”. They were also fueled by recent statements by British and American officials, who said they would be ready to support the Republic of Moldova with arms. But what they meant arms to increase military resilience.
PURPOSE: To fuel the Kremlin's propaganda that Russia is surrounded by enemies and is forced to wage a war for survival; to cause panic in the Republic of Moldova, but also criticism of the current pro-European authorities.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: First we should mention Kremlin's tendency to mistake the Russian peacekeepers for the Russian military forces in Transnistria. The so-called peacekeepers are part of the Peacekeeping Mission formed in 1992, following a ceasefire agreement signed by Chisinau and Moscow after the military conflict on the Dniester. When representatives of Chisinau demand the evacuation of Russian troops, they are referring to the contingent of about 1,500 troops officially guarding the Soviet-era Cobasna weapons depot, which Russia officially undertook to evacuate in the late 1990s. Russian propaganda deliberately makes no distinction between these two categories of military forces to induce the idea that the Republic of Moldova wants to destroy the peacekeeping forces on the Dniester, which could lead to a new conflict with the separatist forces. However, several experts are contesting the role of this mission.
Potential plans of the Chisinau forces attacking the separatist region by Chisinau forces, at the command / with the support of the West, make no sense given that representatives of Kiev, who consider the region a possible risk factor, even if small, given its military potential, have expressed readiness to “cleanse” it of separatists and Russian forces “with a snap of the fingers”. However, a scenario of settling the Transnistrian conflict following a military intervention is excluded by the Chisinau authorities, who continue to insist on the solution of negotiations.
So, if the West were to influence the authorities in Chisinau as the authors of the commentary claim, it shouldn’t even have make an effort to attack Transnistria, because this could be done by Ukraine, without requiring any military / economic effort from the West.
Even if Ukraine is ready to intervene in Transnistria, opening a new front would mean to mobilize the necessary resources in other parts of the country. In addition, bringing the fighting closer to the borders of Romania, a NATO member state, would increase the risk of a direct Russia-NATO confrontation that the North Atlantic Alliance, as it has stated itself, does not want. Moreover, it would increase the military spending of the West. The Republic of Moldova has a military budget of less than 40 million euros, Soviet armament, no tanks, fleet and anti-aircraft defense, so its military potential is at its lowest.
GRAIN OF TRUTH: Both Western and Chisinau officials have made statements on the need to increase the military resilience of the Republic of Moldova.
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