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The EU and Romania want Moldova to forcefully annex Transnistria, while the Moldovan army is running attack drills focusing on this region, the Russian media writes, claiming the plan will observe the logic of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.
NEWS: What is important is the fact that it is not fully clear what Tiraspol’s enemies have in store for Transnistria. Chișinău is working with different scenarios in this regard. One such scenario stipulates that Moldova must immediately join the European Union, including Transnistria, which should be subordinated by the time of the accession.
Another scenario, backed by Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, and the country’s Foreign Minister, Nicu Popescu, would have Moldova join the EU without the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), which is expected to join the community bloc at a later stage. Chișinău believes EU accession can be achieved by 2030, and accession talks will start at the end of the year. Neverhteless, it is very unlikely the EU will want to give up the enclave where Moscow enjoys the support of the population. Romania wants to claim the entire territory of the Moldovan SSR. Its plan is simple: as a reward for its loyal services to the USA, Romania will be given this territory. Therefore, without ever entering an open conflict with Russia, Romania will regain the territory it controlled over 1941-1944. During this period, Romania controlled not just the present-day territory of Moldova, but also Odesa.
Having understood that, Chișinău started to threaten the population of Transnistria. Therefore, the former minister of defense (who is also a veteran of the pro-Romanian movement of the late 1980s), Anatol Șalaru, said publicly: “We need to make our own destiny and make some hard choices regarding the reintegration of Transnistria”.
[…] The installation of a dictatorship is becoming increasingly clear. The broadcast of Russian-language programs in Moldova, in particular news and political segments, has been discontinued. Any real opposition from the “Shor” Party has been banned. Searches and arrests have been targeting the successor of this party, “Revival”. Two “Revival” deputies have been arrested. The nationalist majority in the Moldovan Parliament has banned “Shor” Party activists from running for public office for five years. Pending an examination of this decision by the Venice Commission, its effects are null.
[…] What is worrying is the fact that the EU and the USA want Moldova’s army to be vastly superior to the Transnistrian armed forces. The military exercises carried out by Moldova and Western countries in the training facility at Bulboaca, close to the Transnistrian security zone, which are designed to stage attacks on cities in the region, give us the full picture. Tiraspol believes the only solution is to consolidate military cooperation between PMR and Russia.
NARRATIVES: 1. The EU and Romania want to annex Transnistria by force. 2. The Western-backed Moldovan army is preparing an attack on Transnistria. 3. Romania has territorial claims with respect to the Republic of Moldova, including the region of Transnistria. 4. A nationalist regime now rules Moldova, fighting the pro-Russian opposition.
BACKGROUND: In September, the armed forces of Azerbaijan attacked the Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia, a country that has a peacekeeping force deployed to the region (and a traditional ally of Armenia), did not intervene to fend off the attack, which led to the quick occupation of this province. In the following days, the Armenian population sought refuge in Armenia, fleeing persecution from the new regime. Russia’s lack of response was justified in part by its hostility towards Armenia’s democratic government, interested in developing closer ties with the West. On the other hand, Russia was unable to honor its commitments due to being otherwise engaged in the war in Ukraine. At international level, Nagorno-Karabakh had a status similar to Transnistria’s: it is a breakaway region that lacks international recognition. The West never called for an armed resolution of the conflict, and it did not cooperate with Azerbaijan when this country attacked Karabakh. On the contrary, it called for an immediate ceasefire and for ensuring the protection of the civilian population. Therefore, Nagorno-Karabakh never created a “precedent”.
Transnistria was annexed by the Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic, set up in the wake of the USSR’s annexation of the Romanian territories between Prut and Dniester rivers. At the same time, southern Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina were integrated into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, which Transnistria had been part of.
With the collapse of the USSR, Transnistria proclaimed its independence. In 1992, an armed conflict broke out with the Moldovan authorities. Russia’s 14th Army sided with the separatist forces in the conflict. Right now, the separatist enclave continues to host a military depot storing approximately 20,000 tons of ammunition, guarded by Russian military forces. The presence of Russian troops in Transnistria has always been regarded as one of the main obstacles to settling the conflict. Russia failed to observe its international commitments to withdraw its troops and ammunition from the breakaway region.
Starting 2005, negotiations for settling the Transnistrian dispute are conducted in the so-called “5+2” format, with the participation of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE as mediators, the EU and the USA as observers, and Moldova and Transnistria as parties to the conflict. 5+2 talks made very slow progress and even reached a standstill after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
In recent months, Russian propaganda has launched a fierce media campaign about the Republic Moldova allegedly preparing an attack on the region of Transnistria, with support (or under orders) from the West and/or Ukraine. The goal would be to open a second frontline against Russia, although there is no direct land border between Russia and Transnistria / the Republic of Moldova. Moreover, Russian forces deployed in the region are too insignificant to pose a real threat to Ukraine.
Another narrative of Russian propaganda and Transnistrian media is tied to Romania’s plans to annex the territory of the Republic of Moldova, including Transnistria. The imminent unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania (meaning the annexation of the Republic of Moldova), is one of the main scenarios used to strike fear into part of the population, ethnic minorities in particular. The story is correlated to an old Soviet-era false narrative about “the Romanian gendarme” (who ill-treated, tortured and mocked the local population), launched shortly after the unification of Bessarabia with Romania in 1918.
PURPOSE: To fuel fears in Transnistria over the imminent annexation of this territory by Romania. To describe the regime in Chișinău as nationalist and war-mongering, planning an attack on the breakaway region.
WHY THE NARRATIVES ARE FALSE: Both the EU and the USA have always been in favor of a peaceful resolution to the Transnistrian conflict. It was Brussels that went on record for the first time about the possibility that the Republic of Moldova could join the European Union without the region of Transnistria, just like Cyprus did. This scenario was presented as one possible option by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, on the sidelines of the European Political Community Summit hosted by the Republic of Moldova on June 1. It proves that the EU is not adamant about the region of Transnistria being brought under Chișinău’s control. As a result, Russia would lose part of its critical leverage in the region and will thus no longer be able to block the Republic of Moldova’s EU integration aspirations, which had been put on hold indefinitely due to the frozen conflict in Transnistria. It is also worth mentioning that it’s not the EU trying to draw Moldova into the EU, but Moldova itself that wants to become a member of the EU.
The claim about Chișinău authorities threatening the population of Transnistria is unfounded. The right-wing politician the article quotes is affiliated to a party that is not currently in power and has very slim chances of ever winning the elections.
Chișinău has dismissed any possibility of attacking the region of Transnistria and continues to argue in favor of identifying a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Moldovan servicemen are periodically engaged in multinational military exercises, some of which are hosted by the Republic of Moldova, including at the training grounds in Bulboaca, which the author of the article refers to. In September, Moldova hosted the joint multinational exercise “Fire Shield /Rapid Trident — 2023”, meant to increase “interoperability and readiness through training in peacekeeping and stability operations”, according to the Moldovan Defense Ministry.
Although the unification of Moldova with Romania is a topic for discussion in certain circles in both Chișinău and Bucahrest, the issue has never been officially raised for public debate between the leading politicians of the two countries. In fact, Romania was the first state to officially recognize the independence of the Republic of Moldova.
Never have European officials greenlit a possible unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania. Brussels sees Moldova as a sovereign and independent state, which in June 2022 obtained the EU candidate status. The European Union is one of the main international organizations that provides financial support to the Republic of Moldova, with Romania ranking among its top donors.
Criminal investigations targeting certain Moldovan politicians are often described by Russian propaganda as evidence of the installation of a Russophobic dictatorship in Chișinău. Admittedly, some leaders of the opposition have been detained in the last year. We’re talking first and foremost by the former president Igor Dodon, and the vice-president of the Shor Party, Marina Tauber. Igor Dodon’s name is tied to a number of investigations into acts of corruption and high treason, and Veridica has previously debunked fake news about these inquiries. Marina Tauber too is targeted by several investigations into the illegal funding of her party. The Shor Party, founded and led by wanted oligarch Ilan Shor, who was sentenced in the 2014 billion-dollar fraud and is allegedly tied to representatives of the Russian secret services, has been declared unconstitutional in Moldova. Veridica has disproved a number of false narratives linked to this topic as well.
The introduction of censorship is another accusation widely promoted by Russian propaganda. One particular argument in defense of this theory is a ruling of the Committee for Exception Situations of December 2022, based on which the broadcast licenses of six television stations were suspended in the wake of accusations of manipulation. In the last couple of years, the Republic of Moldova has climbed over 60 positions in the Press Freedom Index, now standing at 28. Veridica repeatedly debunked false narratives of the Russian propaganda with regard to the introduction of censorship in the Republic of Moldova.
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